Building the New Normal

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Building the New Normal

Florida Update on the New Normal:

My buddy running a construction job outside Daytona called and told me one of workers requested a $2/hr raise. He's being divorced, his car broke down, etc. In short he's up against it. My buddy passed on his request (he's the job super) and noted he's a good worker and without some help, probably won't be. The raise was denied.

When my buddy came to the site this morning about $50,000 worth of damage had been done to their machines. The guy who wanted the raise didn't show. (My buddy had put his handgun in his car that morning, just in case.) The guy asking for the raise is in his early 60s.

As we enter the second phase of the credit collapse, are we nearing another national divide. Does decades of illusion + base ignorance divided by rapacious predators = a National Nervous Breakdown.

By now many 'middle class' Americans have exhausted their monetary resources, their friends and family assistance, and their personal psychic reserves. Will that component of the political side of the economy make itself felt?

(tangentially, with prisoners getting early-outs across the land, and finding no work, they're violating their parole to go back in for 3 squares and a bed. The unemployment rate for minimum wage workers- $12,500 a year- is over 30%. That's a No Exit situation.)

It seems to me that in contrast to earlier generations, Americans are disinclined to revolt. In particular I think that they will not organize and the above example is what I think we will see more of. Atomized and angry unemployed people are the feedstock of right wing nationalist movements.

[Aetius Romulous]

Re: Building the New Normal

Very funny.

It seems to me that in contrast to earlier generations, Americans are disinclined to revolt. In particular I think that they will not organize and the above example is what I think we will see more of. Atomized and angry unemployed people are the feedstock of right wing nationalist movements.

If it does start, my votes is it will be on Facebook.

History is full of examples where slowly growing hordes of the disaffected eventually coalesce around a leader, a seminal event, or a populist spark. It took months for a rage to "sweep" a nation. That will remain the case today, however the speed of organization to action will be mind blowing. Think about it. It snowed 2 feet in Washington and within hours hundreds were out for a mass snowball fight entirely organized and executed over cell phones. Crazy.

There is anger and frustration. It is growing, with no relief in site. Somebody is going to light that sucker up.

[flintlock]

Re: Building the New Normal

Great point. The illusion is gone that we can all live like movie stars, but it was never true. Of course it will still feel to most people like something was taken away from them.

Exactly. For years I had a funny feeling in my gut that something was wrong here. When I saw dumb ass people who could barely read driving $40,000 vehicles. Everyone was living like a king. "Poor" people who owned 3 cars, $800 dogs, several motorcycles, a flat screen TV, and at least one 4 wheeler ATV.

I've actually found this recession to be somewhat of a validation of my gut instincts. But like you say, people will feel like they are deprived, even though they never should have had half the "Stuff" they had in the first place.

[GRG55]

Re: Building the New Normal

...(I figure they'd have trouble getting an 900 lb. cow into their pickup.)...

Interesting. I see you are east of the Mississippi, which is probably a good thing...because in many parts west of the Mississippi there's a long heritage of cattle rustling...

[Raz]

Re: Building the New Normal

Exactly. For years I had a funny feeling in my gut that something was wrong here. When I saw dumb ass people who could barely read driving $40,000 vehicles. Everyone was living like a king. "Poor" people who owned 3 cars, $800 dogs, several motorcycles, a flat screen TV, and at least one 4 wheeler ATV.

I've actually found this recession to be somewhat of a validation of my gut instincts. But like you say, people will feel like they are deprived, even though they never should have had half the "Stuff" they had in the first place.

Back in the Mid-1980s I knew there was something wrong when banks and auto dealers came up with 5-year car loans.
This was before we heard the phrase "upside down". To me it made no economic sense.

In the 1990s it only got worse and I began to see the same things you did, Flintlock.
Values became distorted and many people didn't seem to care as long as they could (1) get it today, and (2) make the payment.
And our government set the worst example imaginable with its deficit spending and empire.

No wonder we are a bankrupt nation.

[jpatter666]

Re: Building the New Normal

Back in the Mid-1980s I knew there was something wrong when banks and auto dealers came up with 5-year car loans.
This was before we heard the phrase "upside down". To me it made no economic sense.

In the 1990s it only got worse and I began to see the same things you did, Flintlock.
Values became distorted and many people didn't seem to care as long as they could (1) get it today, and (2) make the payment.
And our government set the worst example imaginable with its deficit spending and empire.

No wonder we are a bankrupt nation.

Agreed. My wife's family was a classic example of this -- they never looked at what the total amount was, just whether the monthly payment was "in their range".

Needless to say, the financiers were *happy* to help "make it work".

My wife's eyes are now wide open, we're trying to wake up the rest.

[don]

Re: Building the New Normal

At Closing Plant, Ordeal Included Heart Attacks

By MICHAEL LUO

The first to have a heart attack was George Kull Jr., 56, a millwright who worked for three decades at the steel mills in Lackawanna, N.Y. Three weeks after learning that his plant was closing, he suddenly collapsed at home.

Less than two hours later, he was pronounced dead.

A few weeks after that, a co-worker, Bob Smith, 42, a forklift operator with four young children, started having chest pains. He learned at the doctor’s office that he was having a heart attack. Surgeons inserted three stents, saving his life.

Less than a month later, Don Turner, 55, a crane operator who had started at the mills as a teenager, was found by his wife, Darlene, slumped on a love seat, stricken by a fatal heart attack.

It is impossible to say exactly why these men, all in relatively good health, had heart attacks within weeks of one another. But interviews with friends and relatives of Mr. Kull and Mr. Turner, and with Mr. Smith, suggest that the trauma of losing their jobs might have played a role.

“He was really, really worried,” George Kull III said of his father. “With his age, he didn’t know where he would get another job, or if he would get another job.”

A growing body of research suggests that layoffs can have profound health consequences. One 2006 study by a group of epidemiologists at Yale found that layoffs more than doubled the risk of heart attack and stroke among older workers. Another paper, published last year by Kate W. Strully, a sociology professor at the State University of New York at Albany, found that a person who lost a job had an 83 percent greater chance of developing a stress-related health problem, like diabetes, arthritis or psychiatric issues.

In perhaps the most sobering finding, a study published last year found that layoffs can affect life expectancy. The paper, by Till von Wachter, a Columbia University economist, and Daniel G. Sullivan, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, examined death records and earnings data in Pennsylvania during the recession of the early 1980s and concluded that death rates among high-seniority male workers jumped by 50 percent to 100 percent in the year after a job loss, depending on the worker’s age. Even 20 years later, deaths were 10 percent to 15 percent higher. That meant a worker who lost his job at age 40 had his life expectancy cut by a year to a year and half.

Additional investigation is still needed to understand the exact connection between job loss and poor health, according to scientists. The focus is mostly on the direct and indirect effects of stress. Acute stress can cause biochemical changes that trigger heart attacks, for example. Job loss and chronic stress can also lead to lifestyle changes that damage health.

(like flying airplanes into something other than airports)

Mr. Kull, who was 5-foot-8 and a stocky 200 pounds, had a history of high blood pressure but had passed his company physical the year before, including a stress test. On Dec. 28, 2008, he sat down to watch a Buffalo Bills game and have a few drinks. He got up to make dinner but collapsed on the sofa.

Weeks later, his co-worker, Mr. Smith, thought he might have pulled a muscle while raking snow off the roof when he started having chest pains in bed. It did not cross his mind, he said, that he might be having a heart attack. He had no problems with his blood pressure, his cholesterol was low and he was in decent shape, often playing hockey with his boys on their backyard rink.

But his wife, Kim, watched as he tossed and turned at night, fretting about whether he would find a job that paid as much as his position at the mills. When he was still feeling uncomfortable the next day, she made him see a doctor.

“I think the stress just got to him,” she said.

Mr. Turner’s wife, Darlene, noticed that he was smoking more after he learned about the plant closing. He was up to more than two packs a day, from a little over a pack. She also saw that he seemed to be laboring more when he exerted himself.

About the same time, they found out that her hours had been cut at her accounting job, to just one day a week. Still, he kept his worries to himself. At his funeral she learned from colleagues that he had been asking for Tums at work.

“My husband was the type of person that just kept everything inside,” Mrs. Turner said.

She came home on Feb. 13, 2009, and found her husband sitting on the love seat, his hat and gloves still on.

At first she thought he had fallen asleep.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/25/us...ef=todayspaper

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Building the New Normal

Don,

I almost hesitate to say thanks for posting that - what a sad commentary on the law of unintended consequences as it pertains to our current global economic chaos.

[don]

Re: Building the New Normal

Don,

I almost hesitate to say thanks for posting that - what a sad commentary on the law of unintended consequences as it pertains to our current global economic chaos.

I'm sure many of us are grateful that on the 'Tulip we have an informed readership and a chance to vent when the hits just keep on a comin'. In short, I hear what you're saying ;)

[reallife]

Re: Building the New Normal

From my reading of the general health of these guys, it is clear that they were NOT in good health prior to being laid off work. Come on, smoking a pack a day isn't conducive to good cardiac health. The average smoker dies at age 66 after all. The guy who weighed in at a 'stocky' 200 pounds and was 67" had a BMI of .31, in the obese range. The guy who played hockey a few times a year with his kids was definitely not getting adequate exercise. These guys were walking time bombs. Getting laid off just pushed them over the edge. Sorry to have to point out the obvious.

[Sharky]

Re: Building the New Normal

I don't know where you live - but here if you try to use a $50 or $100 bill they look at you like you're a leper, and tell you they won't take it !!! Even retailers don't trust the worthless $hit. Pay with a gold Visa and they treat you like a king. Go figure - because that reduces their profits.

In my experience the most common reason for retailers not wanting to accept cash is fear of employee theft or loss, or in larger establishments, fear of robbery. I personally know several smaller outfits that had huge problems with employee theft (on the order of 30% of total receipts) until they switched to an almost-all-credit setup.

One way that employers "discourage" cash is to tell employees that they're afraid of counterfeits, so they need to take the time to mark the bills with a counterfeit-checking pen, hold them up to a light to look for the strip, etc -- and if they make a mistake, it's on them, not on the employer. Of course the real risk of encountering a counterfeit is tiny, but with the Fear of God in them, the person behind the register will love it when you offer credit instead.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Building the New Normal

In my experience the most common reason for retailers not wanting to accept cash is fear of employee theft or loss, or in larger establishments, fear of robbery. I personally know several smaller outfits that had huge problems with employee theft (on the order of 30% of total receipts) until they switched to an almost-all-credit setup.

One way that employers "discourage" cash is to tell employees that they're afraid of counterfeits, so they need to take the time to mark the bills with a counterfeit-checking pen, hold them up to a light to look for the strip, etc -- and if they make a mistake, it's on them, not on the employer. Of course the real risk of encountering a counterfeit is tiny, but with the Fear of God in them, the person behind the register will love it when you offer credit instead.

In many places it now has become faster to use a card than cash. At Target, McDonalds, Walgreens and many other places, the transaction is done just as soon as the last item is scanned and since there is no change to make you are ready to walk out the door.

jim

[don]

Re: Building the New Normal

From my reading of the general health of these guys, it is clear that they were NOT in good health prior to being laid off work. Come on, smoking a pack a day isn't conducive to good cardiac health. The average smoker dies at age 66 after all. The guy who weighed in at a 'stocky' 200 pounds and was 67" had a BMI of .31, in the obese range. The guy who played hockey a few times a year with his kids was definitely not getting adequate exercise. These guys were walking time bombs. Getting laid off just pushed them over the edge. Sorry to have to point out the obvious.

The point, I believe, was that as the Great Recession grinds on the herd will be culled in any number of ways. If prolonged stress weakens the immune system, then Joe Jogger, and not only Joe Couch Potato, will be at greater risk.

[don]

Re: Building the New Normal

A couple of construction superintendents I know, when they can find work (one's been let go 3 times in 2 years at job completion. Jobs not longer seem to roll over into the next project) are taking a $20,000 to $30,000 haircut on salary, plus the usual soaring healthcare costs.

March 28, 2010

Overqualified? Yes, but Happy to Have a Job

By MICHAEL LUO

GRANDVIEW, Mo. — Don Carroll, a former financial analyst with a master’s degree in business administration from a top university, was clearly overqualified for the job running the claims department for Cartwright International, a small, family-owned moving company here south of Kansas City.

But he had been out of work for six months, and the department badly needed modernization after several decades of benign neglect. It turned out to be a perfect match.

After being hired in December, Mr. Carroll, 31, quickly set about revamping the four-person department, which settles damage claims from moves, and creating tracking tools so the company could better understand its spending.

Conventional wisdom warns against hiring overqualified candidates like Mr. Carroll, who often find themselves chafing at their new roles. (The posting for his job had specified “bachelor’s degree preferred but not required.”) But four months into his employment, it seems to be working out well for all involved.

It is a situation being repeated across the country as the aspirations of many workers have been recalibrated amid the recession, enabling some companies to reap unexpected rewards.

A result is a new cadre of underemployed workers dotting American companies, occupying slots several rungs below where they are accustomed to working. These are not the more drastic examples of former professionals toiling away at “survival jobs” at Home Depot or Starbucks. They are the former chief financial officer working as comptroller, the onetime marketing director who is back to being an analyst, the former manager who is once again an “individual contributor.”

The phenomenon was probably inevitable in a labor market in which job seekers outnumber openings five to one. Employers are seizing the opportunity to stock up on discounted talent, despite the obvious risks that the new hires will become dissatisfied and leave. “They’re trying to really professionalize this company,” said Mr. Carroll, who is the sole breadwinner for his family of four and had lost his home to foreclosure. “I’ve been able to play a big role in that.”

In some cases, of course, the new employees fail to work out, forcing the company through the process of hiring and training someone else. But Mr. Carroll is just one of several recent hires at Cartwright who would be considered overqualified, including a billing clerk who is a certified public accountant and a human resources director who once oversaw that domain for 5,000 employees but is now dealing with just 65.

They represent marked upgrades for Cartwright, a modest-size business with expanding ambitions. The company is benefiting from an influx of talent it probably never would have been able to attract in a better economic climate.

“There’s a nice free-agent market right now,” said Randy Woehl, the human resources director. “The best it’s ever been.”

Exact numbers for workers toiling in positions where their experience or education exceed their job descriptions are hard to come by, in part because the concept is difficult to measure and can be quite subjective. Several studies have put the figure at roughly one in five American workers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/29/us...a%20job&st=cse

[cjppjc]

Re: Building the New Normal

I have two good friends, both self employed who just THIS month got eliminated from their non staff positions. One in IT the other in the auto aftermarket business. I have some hope for the IT friend, as he has saved well and is very good at keeping his skillset current. The other is going to have a hard time. Both saw it as an inevitabiliy for over a year.

It is getting tougher out there, not better.