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Understanding the Trade Deficit

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  • Understanding the Trade Deficit

    Understanding the Trade Deficit

    Foreign Companies Are Buying Out The US Through Our Trade Deficit

    Over the past 30 years, we have been giving dollars to foreign countries and they have been giving us finished consumer goods. Some of those dollars have stayed abroad, some have come back to purchase interests in our companies, governments, and our factors of production. This has been evidenced by massive foreign direct investment especially over the past 15 years and massive net international investment deficits by the US over the same period. They have given us luxury cars and we have given them the keys to our factories.

    The US Must Invest In Domestically Owned Tradable Production

    When foreign countries decide to stop accepting dollars in exchange for consumer goods, what guarantee is there that they will come to this country to buy goods and services? We don’t make anything that they want now (as evidenced by the trade deficit). At the very least, we are not competitive now, what assurance is there that we will be competitive in the future? Will our labor rates and working conditions need to recede to those of China, India, or Mexico? How will we pay for this? What will we do, we don’t produce the goods we need. How long will it be before other countries are no longer willing to extend credit to us?

    We were competitive with the rest of the world when the rest of the world was not functional after WWII, the rest of the world was destroyed and we were the only game in town. We could make all the mistakes we wanted and still come out ahead. Things are very different now.

    Massive Amounts of American Dollars Are Being Spent On Imports

    At present, too many of our dollars are spent on manufactured goods are spent directly on imports. In some industries such as electronics, computers, transportation equipment, and machinery, the amount spend on foreign goods gets even higher.

    The US Service Economy Cannot Keep Our Country Afloat Indefinitely
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  • #2
    Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

    The more trade deficit, the lower the dollar, making imports (including oil) less affordable. The way I see it, the process is irreversible and will continue till globalization is complete, ie standards of living and pay will more or less equalize in the world. Whether that means poor countries becoming rich or rich countries becoming poor, I don't know but probably both. Lots of tension and bumps on the way as well.

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    • #3
      Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

      I believe, that "Peak Oil" will cause a shift away from Globalization to "Localization." My belief is that information will remain globalized, however, production and consumption of most goods and services will be local, or in a very much reduced radius of operation.

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      • #4
        Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

        Originally posted by friendly_jacek View Post
        The more trade deficit, the lower the dollar, making imports (including oil) less affordable. The way I see it, the process is irreversible and will continue till globalization is complete, ie standards of living and pay will more or less equalize in the world. Whether that means poor countries becoming rich or rich countries becoming poor, I don't know but probably both. Lots of tension and bumps on the way as well.

        If every individual in BRIC were to obtain a developed standard of living, the US and the whole of EU must revert to Middle Ages, sub-Saharan African standard of living.

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        • #5
          Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

          Originally posted by touchring View Post
          If every individual in BRIC were to obtain a developed standard of living, the US and the whole of EU must revert to Middle Ages, sub-Saharan African standard of living.
          Why? Explain please...

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          • #6
            Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

            Originally posted by friendly_jacek View Post
            The more trade deficit, the lower the dollar, making imports (including oil) less affordable. The way I see it, the process is irreversible and will continue till globalization is complete, ie standards of living and pay will more or less equalize in the world. Whether that means poor countries becoming rich or rich countries becoming poor, I don't know but probably both. Lots of tension and bumps on the way as well.
            You seem to be arguing against yourself. How do you reconcile "imports less affordable" with globalization is irreversible?

            The boldest and easiest to accept predictions are always those based on extrapolating a secular trend just as its coming to an end [house prices never go down, energy will always be in short supply, etc.]

            I think there's some truth in the old adage that the only things in this world that are certain are taxes and death...
            Last edited by GRG55; February 21, 2010, 01:37 PM.

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            • #7
              Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              You seem to be arguing against yourself. How do you reconcile "imports less affordable" with globalization is irreversible?

              The boldest and easiest to accept predictions are those based on extrapolating a secular trend just as its coming to an end...
              LOL, there is not conflict in what I wrote (except that it didn't get received well).

              Trade deficit->lower dollar->more expensive import->lower standards of living in USA->equalization of standards of living->trade deficit disappears->full globalization

              Like I said, it will not be a smooth transition though and the recent action in U$D is a good reminder of that. Who knows what else in in front of us. Trade wars? Military conflicts?

              Since you disagree, what is your thesis?

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              • #8
                Re: Understanding the Trade Deficit

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                Why? Explain please...

                Because there is not enough natural resources, nor can the planet sustain the kind of carbon footprint another extra 3 billion people living the "western life" will bring.

                There is simply not enough oil, iron, water, and atmosphere (to absorb the extra carbon).

                Mother nature is already screaming with about 800 million people living the Western life. Another 3 billion?

                Japan 127m
                USA 308m
                Germany 81m
                UK 62m
                France 65m
                Spain 45m
                South Korea 49m
                Taiwan 23m
                Australia 22m
                among others.
                Last edited by touchring; February 21, 2010, 02:11 PM.

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