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Gallup Poll
February 16, 2010
In U.S., 6 in 10 View Iran as Critical Threat to U.S. Interests
International terrorism viewed as top threat to U.S.
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- A Gallup poll finds 61% of Americans viewing the military power of Iran as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests over the next 10 years. An additional 29% say Iran is an important, though not a critical, threat to the United States. The findings come as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is seeking the support of several Arab nations for additional sanctions on Iran in a trip to the region this week.
The poll was conducted prior to Clinton's trip, and it is unclear whether her remarks have changed Americans' views on how serious a threat Iran is to the United States. Clinton warned that Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship as the United States and other nations seek to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
A majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats view Iran's military power as a critical threat to the U.S., though Republicans are somewhat more likely to do so (at 68%, compared to 60% for independents and 57% for Democrats).
There is a notable difference in perceptions of Iran by age. Younger Americans (those aged 18 through 29) are significantly less likely than Americans aged 30 and older to view Iran as a critical threat.
Older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to perceive that several of the issues tested are critical threats to the United States. However, the greatest difference by age is on Iran, and could stem in part from the fact that young adults were not yet born when U.S.-Iran tensions were arguably at their greatest, during the 1979-1981 Iranian hostage crisis.
Partisan differences in evaluations of the seven international issues as threats are generally small. Though Republicans are more likely than Democrats to perceive six of the seven issues as critical threats, Republican-Democratic differences are only as large as 12 percentage points on terrorism and 11 points on the military power of Iran.
There is a larger difference by political ideology with respect to China's military power, which 55% of conservatives regard as a critical threat, compared with 35% of liberals. Like Republicans, conservatives tend to view the various issues as more serious threats.
Changes in Views of Issues as Threats
Terrorism also ranked as the top issue in 2004, when Gallup last asked this question. Americans' perceptions of the threat of international terrorism are essentially the same today as six years ago. In 2004, 82% said terrorism was a critical threat to U.S. interests, compared with the 81% in the latest poll.
Similarly, there has been essentially no change in the perceived threat of the India-Pakistan conflict. However, since 2004, Americans have become more likely to view the military power of China as a critical threat (39% in 2004 vs. 46% today) and the military power of Russia as a threat (18% vs. 23%).
The biggest change has been with respect to the conflict in the Middle East. The percentage of Americans believing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a critical threat to the U.S. has fallen from 58% to 47%.
Bottom Line
It's not clear whether the United States will succeed in getting the international community to impose additional sanctions on Iran. Nine in 10 Americans view Iran as an important threat to U.S. vital interests, including 61% who say it is a critical threat. That puts concern about Iran on par with North Korea, another nation with nuclear ambitions, and behind only international terrorism.
Track key 2010 election indicators on our politics page.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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February 19, 2010
In U.S., Canada Places First in Image Contest; Iran Last
Favorable views of Russia, Palestinian Authority up slightly; views of Iraq down
by Lydia Saad
Page: 12
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' perceptions of 20 nations that figure prominently in the news or U.S. foreign policy held quite steady in the first year of the Obama administration. Canada retained its top position in Gallup's annual country ratings, with 90% of Americans viewing it favorably, unchanged from 2009. Iran continues to rank last, with 10% this year.
Eight of the countries rated in this year's World Affairs survey are viewed favorably by a majority of Americans. Great Britain nearly matches Canada in favorability, while smaller majorities hold positive views of Germany, Japan, Israel, India, France, and Egypt. Mexico and Russia are both about as likely to be viewed unfavorably as favorably, while 10 countries are generally viewed unfavorably.
Only Iraq saw a statistically significant, albeit small, drop in favorability over the past year on the basis of the combined percentages viewing each "very favorably" or "mostly favorably." Most countries' ratings are essentially unchanged, while favorability toward Russia and the Palestinian Authority is up slightly.
Partial Rebound in Views of Russia
After dipping to 40% in 2009 -- most likely in response to Russia's 2008 military crackdown on Georgian separatists -- favorability toward Russia has recovered somewhat to 47%; however, this remains lower than where it stood for much of the past decade.
The historical high point for positive U.S. feelings toward Russia was 66%, first reached in 1991 and repeated in 2002. However, favorability toward Russia plummeted to 41% in March 2003, after that country sharply opposed the United States' launching of the Iraq war. (U.S. public opinion of France and Germany, two other countries opposed to the war, also turned more negative in 2003.) By February 2004, Russia's favorability score was back to 59%, and it remained above 50% until 2008.
Palestinian Authority Sees Slight Improvement
Americans' views of the official governing body of the Palestinian people -- the Palestinian Authority -- have been decidedly negative over the years. However, there was a slight improvement in views over the past year, from 15% viewing the Palestinian Authority favorably in 2009 (and just 11% after the Hamas group won the Palestinian elections in 2006) to 20% today.
Favorability toward the Palestinian Authority was quite low for most of the Bush administration, except for February 2005, when the two sides had just announced an informal truce during Mideast peace talks.
Favorability Toward Mexico Still Dampened
Although the two-percentage-point decline in Mexico's overall favorable rating between 2009 and today is not significant, the result is that, for the first time since 1993, fewer than half of Americans have a favorable view of the United States' southern neighbor. Mexico's image in the U.S. has generally been in decline since 2005.
Heightened U.S. attention to illegal immigration from Mexico, as well as to intensifying violence in the Mexican drug war, could explain the deterioration of Mexico's U.S. image in recent years.
Notable Differences
Most of the countries rated this year are viewed more favorably by young adults (aged 18 to 34) than by those 55 and older. Additionally, some are viewed differently by Republicans and Democrats.
A handful of countries -- Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Afghanistan -- receive similar ratings from the broad age and partisan groups.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
February 16, 2010
In U.S., 6 in 10 View Iran as Critical Threat to U.S. Interests
International terrorism viewed as top threat to U.S.
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- A Gallup poll finds 61% of Americans viewing the military power of Iran as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests over the next 10 years. An additional 29% say Iran is an important, though not a critical, threat to the United States. The findings come as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is seeking the support of several Arab nations for additional sanctions on Iran in a trip to the region this week.
"There is a notable difference in perceptions of Iran by age. Younger Americans (those aged 18 through 29) are significantly less likely than Americans aged 30 and older to view Iran as a critical threat."
The findings are based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll that asked Americans to assess the threat of each of seven international issues to the United States. Only international terrorism was more likely to be rated as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests than Iran. Americans rated the military power of North Korea and Iran as equal threats.A majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats view Iran's military power as a critical threat to the U.S., though Republicans are somewhat more likely to do so (at 68%, compared to 60% for independents and 57% for Democrats).
There is a notable difference in perceptions of Iran by age. Younger Americans (those aged 18 through 29) are significantly less likely than Americans aged 30 and older to view Iran as a critical threat.
Changes in Views of Issues as Threats
Terrorism also ranked as the top issue in 2004, when Gallup last asked this question. Americans' perceptions of the threat of international terrorism are essentially the same today as six years ago. In 2004, 82% said terrorism was a critical threat to U.S. interests, compared with the 81% in the latest poll.
Similarly, there has been essentially no change in the perceived threat of the India-Pakistan conflict. However, since 2004, Americans have become more likely to view the military power of China as a critical threat (39% in 2004 vs. 46% today) and the military power of Russia as a threat (18% vs. 23%).
The biggest change has been with respect to the conflict in the Middle East. The percentage of Americans believing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a critical threat to the U.S. has fallen from 58% to 47%.
It's not clear whether the United States will succeed in getting the international community to impose additional sanctions on Iran. Nine in 10 Americans view Iran as an important threat to U.S. vital interests, including 61% who say it is a critical threat. That puts concern about Iran on par with North Korea, another nation with nuclear ambitions, and behind only international terrorism.
Track key 2010 election indicators on our politics page.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
.
February 19, 2010
In U.S., Canada Places First in Image Contest; Iran Last
Favorable views of Russia, Palestinian Authority up slightly; views of Iraq down
by Lydia Saad
Page: 12
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' perceptions of 20 nations that figure prominently in the news or U.S. foreign policy held quite steady in the first year of the Obama administration. Canada retained its top position in Gallup's annual country ratings, with 90% of Americans viewing it favorably, unchanged from 2009. Iran continues to rank last, with 10% this year.
"Although the two-percentage-point decline in Mexico's overall favorable rating between 2009 and today is not significant, the result is that, for the first time since 1993, fewer than half of Americans have a favorable view of the United States' southern neighbor."
Yemen was included on the list for the first time this year, amid news that the Christmas Day underwear bomber had ties to a Yemen-based al Qaeda terrorist group. Its 21% favorable rating is among the lowest in the Feb. 1-3 poll, although about one in four Americans have no opinion of that country.Only Iraq saw a statistically significant, albeit small, drop in favorability over the past year on the basis of the combined percentages viewing each "very favorably" or "mostly favorably." Most countries' ratings are essentially unchanged, while favorability toward Russia and the Palestinian Authority is up slightly.
Partial Rebound in Views of Russia
After dipping to 40% in 2009 -- most likely in response to Russia's 2008 military crackdown on Georgian separatists -- favorability toward Russia has recovered somewhat to 47%; however, this remains lower than where it stood for much of the past decade.
The historical high point for positive U.S. feelings toward Russia was 66%, first reached in 1991 and repeated in 2002. However, favorability toward Russia plummeted to 41% in March 2003, after that country sharply opposed the United States' launching of the Iraq war. (U.S. public opinion of France and Germany, two other countries opposed to the war, also turned more negative in 2003.) By February 2004, Russia's favorability score was back to 59%, and it remained above 50% until 2008.
Americans' views of the official governing body of the Palestinian people -- the Palestinian Authority -- have been decidedly negative over the years. However, there was a slight improvement in views over the past year, from 15% viewing the Palestinian Authority favorably in 2009 (and just 11% after the Hamas group won the Palestinian elections in 2006) to 20% today.
Favorability toward the Palestinian Authority was quite low for most of the Bush administration, except for February 2005, when the two sides had just announced an informal truce during Mideast peace talks.
Although the two-percentage-point decline in Mexico's overall favorable rating between 2009 and today is not significant, the result is that, for the first time since 1993, fewer than half of Americans have a favorable view of the United States' southern neighbor. Mexico's image in the U.S. has generally been in decline since 2005.
Heightened U.S. attention to illegal immigration from Mexico, as well as to intensifying violence in the Mexican drug war, could explain the deterioration of Mexico's U.S. image in recent years.
Most of the countries rated this year are viewed more favorably by young adults (aged 18 to 34) than by those 55 and older. Additionally, some are viewed differently by Republicans and Democrats.
- As a result of the generational differences, Egypt, China, Russia, and Mexico are all viewed favorably by at least 6 in 10 young adults, but by fewer than half of adults 55 and older.
- Significant age gaps exist in favorability toward Cuba, Yemen, Pakistan, North Korea, the Palestinian Authority, and Iran, although most members of all age groups still view these countries negatively.
- France, Russia, Cuba, North Korea, the Palestinian Authority, and Yemen are all viewed more favorably by Democrats than by Republicans. Israel is the only country rated this year that is viewed more favorably by Republicans.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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