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Baltic Dry Goods Rate FFA Sink

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  • Baltic Dry Goods Rate FFA Sink

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1888...x?source=hp_wc



    Like an anchor, Baltic Dry Goods Forward Freight Agreements (future hedging contracts on shipping rates) are sinking for cape-sized ships (as big as they come for bulk cargo ships). This is in spite of analysts predicting huge rate increases and profits for everybody for the same time period.

    Many new ships are being built, and will soon be chasing the little bit of freight left. Add to that, few ports can handle these monsters, and typically there are 17 to 55 of these ships waiting to be offloaded at these few ports that can handle them. Typically, they sit idle for a time equal to the sailing time.

    Note that in May 2008, cape-sized rates were $230,000 per day, almost 10 times higher than today's prices. Ouch! Notice how the cape rates are now correlated with crude oil prices.



    Crude prices have risen, by BDGI stays flat.
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  • #2
    Re: Baltic Dry Goods Rate FFA Sink

    Yes I watch this along with copper prices and six other leading indicators.
    I was going to call a double dip if the lines hold to the end of the March quarter.

    None of the my eight indicators show green shoots in fact 3 are calling for the crash cart. The World economy is stimulus weary with a hangover and it appears it's not going to end well.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Baltic Dry Goods Rate FFA Sink

      Originally posted by thunderdownunder View Post
      Yes I watch this along with copper prices and six other leading indicators.
      I was going to call a double dip if the lines hold to the end of the March quarter.

      None of the my eight indicators show green shoots in fact 3 are calling for the crash cart. The World economy is stimulus weary with a hangover and it appears it's not going to end well.
      I figure within 2 weeks to 2 months, it will have started; the end of the beginning. The second wave, Crash II, whatever you want to call it.

      My guess is that the Fed's response will have the opposite effect to what is expected. What they think is water they are throwing on the house fire is actually gasoline, and up it goes.

      Comment

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