Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

[raja]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Do you have a 'mail order' bride??

Nope. Delivery wasn't included.
I had to go over and get her . . . .

[Andreuccio]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Certain localities, such as West Los Angeles or New Orleans have collapsed into anarchy in recent times.

West Los Angeles? Some people consider the Santa Monica City Council to be something bordering on anarchy, but I don't think that's what you had in mind. Maybe you mean South Central Los Angeles?

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

I don't think Obama has got what it takes; time will tell.

I think you're right.

I was a big Obama fan, but he's starting to look a little weak. I hate Palin and all that she stands for, but her speech writers said it well: "We need a commander in chief, not a professor of law"

[Verrocchio]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

I recognize fear and anxiety, fear’s companion, in this thread, a fear prompted by uncertainty over the future, in part because I share in this growing sense of unease. Rampant exploitation of the world's natural resources and the massive indebtedness of individuals and organizations have led to an awareness, first on the part of knowledgeable folk such as iTulipers, and belatedly by others, that we cannot continue as we have in the past. The assumptions of normalcy have been examined and found wanting, and we have concluded that the future will likely be very different from what we have known. How can we prepare for what we do not know will occur? Buying a box of bullets, when compared to buying a bond of dubious future value, may seem the more prudent decision.

The new future only approaches at the speed of human comprehension of the new, and adjustments are only made after aspects of the new have found their way into consciousness. While catastrophic events such as the 911 WTC murders, Hurricane Katrina, and the Haiti earthquake disaster shock and disorient with their swiftness and savagery, most change occurs quite gradually – and is experienced somewhat reluctantly, so that adjustments to the new are inevitably incremental. Individuals, social groups and institutions, and governments will have time to comprehend and learn to behave differently, but fate offers no guarantee that these will prevail over the forces of chaos and anarchy. Each of us has a role in determining the outcome – and the future in which we will live.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

West Los Angeles? Some people consider the Santa Monica City Council to be something bordering on anarchy, but I don't think that's what you had in mind. Maybe you mean South Central Los Angeles?

Yes - South Central. Thanks for catching this.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Probably not.

Just like in NY, violent crime is way down in LA and it is close to historic lows in the US overall. It's one of the more interesting anomalies. Isn't economic stress supposed to increase crime? Sort of like rampant deficit spending is supposed to drive inflation. 20+ years of economic stagnation in Japan, huge debt load, and inflation? zip.

However, I don't believe both of these conditions in the US are going to last much longer but I've been surprised before.

I wonder how crime statistics are calculated?

Could there potentially be a "if the numbers don't add up change the equation" mentality like with inflation and unemployment calculation in the 70's compared with today?

I also wonder how many police her head of population were working in the 70's compared to today?

And then how many frontline police compared to support personnel counted as police in the 70's compared to a more IT driven police of today?

Just to get a rough but hopefully more accurate apples/apples comparison between then and now.

I am firmly of the believe we will see more of the following in the coming decade:

1.) crime up as unemployment goes up and more people possess a lower dollar value at which they will commit a crime of opportunity/premeditation.

2.) corruption cases hitting the headlines in a few years as police wages don't keep up with inflation and Joe 6 Pack's price for looking the other way drops.

3.) espionage cases hitting the headlines in a few years as those with valuable information become unemployed or under increasing financial hardship and therefore more vulnerable to recruitment.

Anarchy NO

Saviano's Gomorrah or Serpico 2.0 YES

Just my opinion of human nature.

[BigBagel]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

I wonder how crime statistics are calculated?

Could there potentially be a "if the numbers don't add up change the equation" mentality like with inflation and unemployment calculation in the 70's compared with today?

I also wonder how many police her head of population were working in the 70's compared to today?

And then how many frontline police compared to support personnel counted as police in the 70's compared to a more IT driven police of today?

Just to get a rough but hopefully more accurate apples/apples comparison between then and now.

I am firmly of the believe we will see more of the following in the coming decade:

1.) crime up as unemployment goes up and more people possess a lower dollar value at which they will commit a crime of opportunity/premeditation.

2.) corruption cases hitting the headlines in a few years as police wages don't keep up with inflation and Joe 6 Pack's price for looking the other way drops.

3.) espionage cases hitting the headlines in a few years as those with valuable information become unemployed or under increasing financial hardship and therefore more vulnerable to recruitment.

Anarchy NO

Saviano's Gomorrah or Serpico 2.0 YES

Just my opinion of human nature.

The NYPD is currently generating some press regarding the suppression of crime numbers in their stats. I'm an NYPD veteran and I believe the only stat that is truly accurate is the homicide numbers. The results (in NYC) are impressive with 2245 homicides in 1991 and a little over 460 last year. Precinct commanders are under incredible pressure to reduce major crime numbers and that pressure has an effect on the accuracy of those stats.

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Crime statistics in this country, like economic ones, are manipulated. Don't believe everything you read.

[fallout]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Argentina's financial collapse, 1999-2003, would be another modern example of a Western nation decending into "anarchy" due to currency debasement and financial collapse. Read more about it, or check out blogs like FerFAL's who lived through it.

[tofu2u2]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Crime statistics in this country, like economic ones, are manipulated. Don't believe everything you read.

For a while when I was still practicing law, I represented several police union (locals) in suburban Maryland, bordering on southest Washington DC as well as the METRO police (union). In talking with the detectives, I learned that there is a lot of manipulation of the crime statistics in response to political pressure on the department which trickles (or gushes) down the chain of command. I was actually surprised at how enterprising these guys could be, they were doing number crunching worthy of a bunch of accountants or engineers.

They had a catchy saying to describe the way stats were flattened or inflated depending on the need: A stats a stat & that's that.

[loweyecue]

Re: Paul Farrell predicts apocalypse, anarchy

Hasn't Mexico been an "anarchy" since th epeso was devalued? What did I miss?