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Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

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  • Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

    Please notice CNBC changed the title of the article from the bold below to what you see here.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/35348388

    The original article & title............




    Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall

    Published: Thursday, 11 Feb 2010 | 1:12 PM ET Text Size By: CNBC.com with wires
    An anemic government auction of 30-year bonds closed out a weak round of debt sales with low demand on the far end of the debt yield curve.

    The $25 billion auction fetched a whopping 4.72 percent high yield on weak demand, reflected in a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio that compares demand for each dollar auctioned. The average is about 2.50.

    Direct bidding, or Treasurys bought directly through the government, was 24 percent, considered a high number and indicative of weak foreign demand when compared to the indirect bid done through dealers of 29 percent.

    Treasurys immediately sold off on the news after being modestly lower earlier in the session.

    The benchmark 10-year note yield jumped to 3.75 percent while the 30-year long bond yield moved to 4.69 percent, well above the 4.62 percent from late Wednesday.

    Investors earlier paid little attention to lower than expected weekly jobless claims.

    The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 440,000 for the week ended Feb. 6, below analysts' expectations for a reading of 465,000 and down from the previous week's 483,000. The market largely shrugged the data off however.

    "The decline was a little larger than the market was expecting, said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco, adding "it appears that you are clearing out some of that administrative spike you saw earlier in claims."


    The weak sale was expected to be met with thin demand following a rather tepid reception for three-year and 10-year notes on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Investors were also keeping a wary eye on developments on the Greek fiscal situation in Europe, where a European Union source said Greek bond purchases by euro zone state-owned banks was one of the options being considered in an EU plan to support Greece.

    Worries over a possible Greek debt default, and concern over potential defaults in other debt-laden European countries, bolstered U.S. Treasury debt prices late last week.

    —Reuters contributed to this report.
    Last edited by Camtender; February 11, 2010, 06:16 PM.

  • #2
    Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

    Originally posted by Camtender View Post
    Please notice they changed the title of the article from the bold below to what you see here
    Nice catch. That's why I like to post both the text & the link. It never ceases to amaze me how often the MSM will "soften" an article after a phone call from the oligarchs.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

      Originally posted by Fiat Currency View Post
      Nice catch. That's why I like to post both the text & the link. It never ceases to amaze me how often the MSM will "soften" an article after a phone call from the oligarchs.
      According to the article, the auction didn't "fail". It seems like the initial headline was inaccurate. I thought a "failed" auction was one in which the debt offered couldn't be placed. Instead, it had to be placed at a higher yield than usual. Am I missing something? Doesn't a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36 mean there were plenty of offers to buy the bonds, albeit fewer offers than the last auction, and contingent upon receiving higher interest rates?
      Last edited by ASH; February 11, 2010, 06:26 PM.

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      • #4
        Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

        Originally posted by ASH View Post
        According to the article, the auction didn't "fail". It seems like the initial headline was inaccurate. I thought a "failed" auction was one in which the debt offered couldn't be placed. Instead, it had to be placed at a higher yield than usual. Am I missing something? Doesn't a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36 mean there were plenty of offers to buy the bonds, albeit fewer offers than the last auction, and contingent upon receiving higher interest rates?
        NO, unless you consider the FED acting as a direct bidder, as a failed auction (Which A LOT of people seem to be saying, like Rick Santelli)

        Direct's took down as much as indirects-> implication that the FED had to buy as much as half the auction amount. As you know over 50% and things start to get REALLY interesting.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

          Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
          NO, unless you consider the FED acting as a direct bidder, as a failed auction (Which A LOT of people seem to be saying, like Rick Santelli)

          Direct's took down as much as indirects-> implication that the FED had to buy as much as half the auction amount. As you know over 50% and things start to get REALLY interesting.
          Is there any evidence that the Fed is secretly buying the debt? The Treasury portion of their QE program is done (for now).

          Unless there is compelling evidence to the contrary, I see no reason to believe that the Fed is bidding at these auctions.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

            Originally posted by ASH View Post
            Is there any evidence that the Fed is secretly buying the debt? The Treasury portion of their QE program is done (for now).

            Unless there is compelling evidence to the contrary, I see no reason to believe that the Fed is bidding at these auctions.
            That's cool. Me? I'm buying booze.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

              Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
              That's cool. Me? I'm buying booze.
              I'll agree that your interpretation is 100% consistent with your view that the end is coming sooner rather than later.

              Do you have a time limit in mind that we could use as a reference point? Something to the effect of, "if I'm right and have correctly identified the leading edge of an imminent dollar crisis, it will have come to a head by X"?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                REF: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14299

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                  Thanks, ICM... hadn't caught up with that thread yet.

                  But I see you talking more about a trade based on the expectation of higher Treasury yields -- not so much TEOTWAWKI and booze as a trade good.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                    Originally posted by ASH View Post
                    I'll agree that your interpretation is 100% consistent with your view that the end is coming sooner rather than later.

                    Do you have a time limit in mind that we could use as a reference point? Something to the effect of, "if I'm right and have correctly identified the leading edge of an imminent dollar crisis, it will have come to a head by X"?
                    early March '10, how's that?

                    (And I would look for the effects FIRST in the PHYSICAL PM PRICE)
                    Last edited by jtabeb; February 11, 2010, 08:32 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                      Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                      early March '10, how's that?

                      (And I would look for the effects FIRST in the PHYSICAL PM PRICE)
                      Thanks, JT.

                      If it's apparent that we're in a dollar crisis by early March '10, it is going to get VERY interesting VERY quickly... just like you've been saying.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                        Karl Denninger states : ..."The more-worrying factor here is that we've got this "mystery" direct buyers out here again taking nearly 25% of the offered amount (who is bidding for that undisclosed?) and another 11% taken down by The Fed for the SOMA account."...


                        Ref: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...A-Solid-F.html

                        Who would be getting the back of the govt 30yr ???

                        Candidates (Multi Choice):
                        A) Those that had TARP funds (GS, JPM, BAC)
                        B) Unknown govt black Ops "Men In Black" buying for the FED.
                        C) Iceland
                        D) Zimbabwe

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                          Originally posted by ASH View Post
                          Thanks, JT.

                          If it's apparent that we're in a dollar crisis by early March '10, it is going to get VERY interesting VERY quickly... just like you've been saying.
                          And here's to hoping that I'm completely f-ing wrong.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                            Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                            early March '10, how's that?

                            (And I would look for the effects FIRST in the PHYSICAL PM PRICE)
                            In basically 30 days??? :eek:

                            Might I inquire for a timeline as to how you see this playing out?

                            I see things getting worse, but I expect a domino effect starting overseas and coming back to the US. I expect them to start falling in earnest mid-late '10 but not hitting here in force until late '10 or early '11.

                            TPTB have too much interest in the 2010 elections to let it all fall apart before then.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Failed 30-Year Auction Closes Rough Week; Treasurys Fall - CNBC

                              its the fault of Greece - yea, they are causing all this....

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