Awesome interactive risk map!

[jpatter666]

Last weekend, the World Economic Forum held its annual meeting at Davos, and the theme this time was "Improve the State of the World." Which naturally meant coming to terms with the risks out there. Their economists came up with a comprehensive list and assigned probabilities to each--and also mapped the linkages between each one. Then they summarized all those findings in a handy dandy interactive map that's sure to delight paranoid conspiracy theorists everywhere:

http://www.weforum.org/documents/ris...er2010/risks/#

I'm going to take some time playing with this tonight....

[wayiwalk]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Last weekend, the World Economic Forum held its annual meeting at Davos, and the theme this time was "Improve the State of the World." Which naturally meant coming to terms with the risks out there. Their economists came up with a comprehensive list and assigned probabilities to each--and also mapped the linkages between each one. Then they summarized all those findings in a handy dandy interactive map that's sure to delight paranoid conspiracy theorists everywhere:

http://www.weforum.org/documents/ris...er2010/risks/#

I'm going to take some time playing with this tonight....

This is a really interesting tool. Agreed!

Can you imagine what it takes to perform a "QC" check on something like this?

[HisHighnessDog]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

have any idea where I can find the tool they used to produce this image; (network visualization software)?

This is a really interesting tool. Agreed!

Can you imagine what it takes to perform a "QC" check on something like this?

[MulaMan]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Where is the BIG circle labeled "belief in economic models" ?

[dummass]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Last weekend, the World Economic Forum held its annual meeting at Davos, and the theme this time was "Improve the State of the World." Which naturally meant coming to terms with the risks out there. Their economists came up with a comprehensive list and assigned probabilities to each--and also mapped the linkages between each one. Then they summarized all those findings in a handy dandy interactive map that's sure to delight paranoid conspiracy theorists everywhere:

http://www.weforum.org/documents/ris...er2010/risks/#

I'm going to take some time playing with this tonight....

The two most likely events: asset price collapse and slowing growth in China.

Not too different from EJ's China Bubble and US stock market calls. Unfortunately, you can't trade it if you can't time it.

[HisHighnessDog]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Where is the BIG circle labeled "belief in economic models" ?

THAT circle envelopes the entire map.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

have any idea where I can find the tool they used to produce this image; (network visualization software)?

It's primarily adobe flash. I don't think there's an easy way, although it's using swf object.

http://code.google.com/p/swfobject/

[jimmygu3]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

The two most likely events: asset price collapse and slowing growth in China.

Not too different from EJ's China Bubble and US stock market calls. Unfortunately, you can't trade it if you can't time it.

Awesome chart!

The most highly connected ones are Fiscal Crises>Asset Price Collapse>Major Fall In USD>Oil Price Spikes>Food Price Volatility. Very much along EJ lines, although Oil Price Spikes is assigned only a 50% likelihood in the next 10 years. Sounds like some of the economists in the WEF don't understand the laws of supply and demand!

-Jimmy

[Gnosis]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

AAAHHH......look at all the pretty circles........drool.........;)

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Then they summarized all those findings in a handy dandy interactive map that's sure to delight paranoid conspiracy theorists everywhere:

Eh, this map is part of the problem, not part of the solution. It is a tool to help overload our minds with the meme's of fear. It does nothing whatsoever to expose the dominant underlying forces and mechanisms that determine the outcome. In particular, one of those mechanisms is to overload the populace with diverse and diffuse fears, the better to cow them into submission.

[jpatter666]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Eh, this map is part of the problem, not part of the solution. It is a tool to help overload our minds with the meme's of fear. It does nothing whatsoever to expose the dominant underlying forces and mechanisms that determine the outcome. In particular, one of those mechanisms is to overload the populace with diverse and diffuse fears, the better to cow them into submission.

Disagree, it's useful to see what people are thinking about. Only another piece of information to use or ignore as I see fit.

You own mileage may vary.

[cjppjc]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Food price volatility rated at 10% likelihood. The percentages on this risk map should make all the doomers here mad.

[HisHighnessDog]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Eh, this map is part of the problem, not part of the solution. It is a tool to help overload our minds with the meme's of fear. It does nothing whatsoever to expose the dominant underlying forces and mechanisms that determine the outcome. In particular, one of those mechanisms is to overload the populace with diverse and diffuse fears, the better to cow them into submission.

I like how it allows one to instantly surface concepts (risks in this case) related to concepts one already has a handle on. One can quickly navigate the breadth of 'risk space'... to judge how useful the model is. To me, that makes things clearer and less worrisome.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

It is a tool to help overload our minds with the meme's of fear. It does nothing whatsoever to expose the dominant underlying forces and mechanisms that determine the outcome. In particular, one of those mechanisms is to overload the populace with diverse and diffuse fears, the better to cow them into submission.

It was maybe useful insofar as the %s and relative costs of various phenomena envisioned by WEF website manufacturers (Swiss grad students?) seem odd to me.

Without the underlying conceptual context, it is perhaps not all that useful.

Still, charts are fun, and sticking with the interconnected chart theme...and memes...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Awesome interactive risk map!

Disagree, it's useful to see what people are thinking about.

It maps their fears, not their thoughts.

As I said above, it does nothing whatsoever to expose the dominant underlying forces and mechanisms that determine the outcome.

But I'm just repeating myself. Sorry.

Perhaps where you and I differ is that I look at some of the items on this "map" and see things I once feared but now find were false controversies raised for short term monetary gain and long term power gain over the populace.

P.S. -- See also kriden's post at Collectivism: Sons of Darkness, Sons of Light. Be not too distracted by the details of specific causes of fear. They are the surface decorations of deeper currents.