Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

[erising]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

Does anyone have an opinion on RYJUX, RTPIX, and RRPIX? They all short the 30 year bond, or 1.25 times the 30 year, or the 10 year.

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

Yeah, those funds are a pain, hard to get out quick.

If you want to use leverage, try this.

BUY a SEP or latter CALL on TBT with a DELTA of 0.90 or better ( thats ITM options, strike around 42).

This means the option value nearly move $0.90 for every $1 of the underlying stock (ie TBT).

1 option is 100 shares, so if you were gonna by 1000 shares, dont, buy 10 ITM calls with a delta of .90

[jpatter666]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

ICM, given the decay in leverage funds (and TBT is double leveraged) would it not be better to buy puts on TLT to take advantage of the decay?

[FondoFinder]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

OMG!! Run for the Border!!

TBT	is Taco Bell Tuesday

[charliebrown]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

me and a buddy tried both strategies.
thing about puts is your're timing has to be right, otherwise you lose everything, unless you by itm puts, and get some of your money back.

I bought TBT on fundamentals and am still waiting for the big blow up.
I have been writing otm calls to deal with the decay in tbt. I bought
a little more tbt in november on a momentum play and that is doing ok.

So in summary, tbt may be a momentum play, but since the gvt owns the press, the fundamentals may be delayed for months or longer. and the way I do momentum is wait for a big drop, then buy on up mo. Got in novem tbt a 46,
now its close to 50. I do have a feb 50 i wrote on it. With OTM call writting I have been able to push my cost down to 45. With this much cushion I might let the feb call expire and not write another.

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

What did I say...

Warming up...

[charliebrown]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

well tomorrow will be an interesting day for me.
On 2/18 tbt closed at 49.99. If it stays or goes lower I keep control of my shares. If it cracks 50 tomorrow, I get called out. I could buy the calls back for .25 and sell a new march 51 for .80.

Thanks for your persistant calls on a dollar rally. Do you have an ideas how high it will go? I have a feeling this mostly has to do with the euro falling apart. Do you have any ideas on EUR/USD? Last year it fell to 1.24. With your advice, and a momentum turn in december I started getting rid of some of my dollar hedges. (BWZ, WIP) however I still have a big WIP position. What do you think about that?

Asia is taking a beating tonight. Neikei down almost 2%.

Sit back and enjoy the show options expiration and the FED taking away a little kool-aide from the party.

Cheers!

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

Dont be a chicken..

TBT to 54-56..easy !

hang in there..

Higher highs, and higher lows !

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

Is this it....: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg

TBTUpdate001.jpg

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

A must read a zerohedge.com on debt, interest rates ...

The beast in the bond market will rise...

As the Fed's monetary policy impacts most of the the interest rate on Bills, with Bonds and Notes much more a function of medium- and long-term inflation/deflation expectations (and with the yield curve at record levels, the expectations see some less than smooth sailing down the line), as the Treasury rolls down its Bill holdings, as it has been doing, the Fed's ability to influence rates is getting progressively less and less. Couple this with an ever increasing record amount of total US debt, and you have a recipe for disaster, or as we call it, the curve Black Swan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed...y-assets-bills

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

A must read a zerohedge.com on debt, interest rates ...

Good read - thanks.

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

And its going to pop...watch the world change..no free lunch.
30yrAboutToPOP001.jpg

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

The FED issues $12bn to primary dealers to PUSH yields down when they were at 5.0%. (30yr)

Just goes to show how they dont want to let 5.0% be broken.

But when it does they wont be able to do anything...

See chart evidence here by BART..

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...949#post156949

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

Listen to Mark Hanson about the expolsion thats coming in June/July 2010 and interest rates.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...A17%3A2010.mp3

June looks like kick off for higher rates...on turbo

[icm63]

Re: Something special is gonna happen with :TBT

I refer you to : Business News Network – 03/25/2010

Listen here: http://mhanson.com/about