Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

    fyi:

    http://calpensions.com/2010/02/05/ba...-not-pensions/

    "The bankrupt city of Vallejo cut health care payments for retired employees, but an initial recovery plan does not touch pensions.

    When the old port city on the far side of San Francisco Bay filed a rare municipal bankruptcy in May 2008, there was speculation about whether bankruptcy would become a way for deficit-ridden cities to shed crushing retirement debts.

    In groundbreaking actions in the Vallejo case, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Michael McManus in Sacramento ruled last March that city labor contracts can be overturned in bankruptcy, and then in September dissolved a contract after mediation failed....


    Retirement costs are by far Vallejo’s biggest debt. The top two creditors listed by the city in its bankruptcy filing were retiree health, $135 million, and the California Public Employees Retirement Association, $84 million...


    Vallejo employees have some of the most generous retirement formulas. Police and firefighters have “3 at 50,” three percent of final pay for each year served when retiring at age 50, capped at 90 percent of final pay.

    Most of the other Vallejo employees, “miscellaneous” or non-safety, have “2.7 at 55.” That’s more than the “2 at 55” formula for miscellaneous state workers, which is uncapped and can produce pensions equal to 100 percent of pay after 40 years of service....


    Like many California governments, Vallejo has set aside no money to pay for future health care promised retirees
    . The workout plan would begin switching retiree health from pay-as-you go to prefunding, as recommended by a governor’s commission...

    Title: Bankrupt Vallejo cuts retiree health, not pensions"

  • #2
    Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

    Mish might love this news.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

      i think we will be seeing many more municipal bankruptcies. the big deal will be when a state goes belly up.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

        It would be politically impossible for the federal government to allow a large state to default on its general obligation bonds. An outright default by any state would completely shut down the municipal debt market and drive the other "troubled" states to default in short order unless the federal government steps in.

        Instead, the feds will continue to provide "indirect" support by backstopping depleted unemployment insurance funds, contributing to medicaid, guaranteeing muni bonds ("Build America" bonds - ha), etc. In a worst case, would infuse cash directly with a program like TARP for states (with many strings attached - these states might have to give up control over budgeting to a federally appointed board).

        No state will be allowed to default until the federal government defaults.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

          67 reported shootings in Vallejo in 2009. They've got crazy game...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

            Originally posted by mmreilly View Post
            It would be politically impossible for the federal government to allow a large state to default on its general obligation bonds. An outright default by any state would completely shut down the municipal debt market and drive the other "troubled" states to default in short order unless the federal government steps in.

            Instead, the feds will continue to provide "indirect" support by backstopping depleted unemployment insurance funds, contributing to medicaid, guaranteeing muni bonds ("Build America" bonds - ha), etc. In a worst case, would infuse cash directly with a program like TARP for states (with many strings attached - these states might have to give up control over budgeting to a federally appointed board).

            No state will be allowed to default until the federal government defaults.
            the federal gov't will never default [nominally] because the fed can buy tbonds and create the money. a state, without the ability to print currency, can in theory default. i'm not sure i agree with your assessment of what is "politically impossible." although a state default is politically undesirable, it is not clear to me that the mechanisms are in place to prevent a default, or if in fact the political machinery is capable of action. just as california's rules make passing a budget politically impossible at the moment, so might federal structures and political gridlock preclude timely action to stop a state default. this leads me to the question of whether - in extremis - the fed would buy muni bonds. they've bought all kinds of paper, so i suppose it's possible. printing money is the ultimate backstop.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

              Originally posted by jk View Post
              the federal gov't will never default [nominally] because the fed can buy tbonds and create the money. a state, without the ability to print currency, can in theory default. i'm not sure i agree with your assessment of what is "politically impossible." although a state default is politically undesirable, it is not clear to me that the mechanisms are in place to prevent a default, or if in fact the political machinery is capable of action. just as california's rules make passing a budget politically impossible at the moment, so might federal structures and political gridlock preclude timely action to stop a state default. this leads me to the question of whether - in extremis - the fed would buy muni bonds. they've bought all kinds of paper, so i suppose it's possible. printing money is the ultimate backstop.
              California's issuance of paper IOUs to involuntary "lenders" was a default in all but name. The political system both in that State and between Cali and D.C. does not seem to have changed in any material way as a result of that warning shot...which I think lends considerable credence to your observation regarding the mechanisms and the political machinery's ability to act.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: getting blood from a stone, or the future of California

                Originally posted by mmreilly View Post
                It would be politically impossible for the federal government to allow a large state to default on its general obligation bonds. An outright default by any state would completely shut down the municipal debt market and drive the other "troubled" states to default in short order unless the federal government steps in.

                Instead, the feds will continue to provide "indirect" support by backstopping depleted unemployment insurance funds, contributing to medicaid, guaranteeing muni bonds ("Build America" bonds - ha), etc. In a worst case, would infuse cash directly with a program like TARP for states (with many strings attached - these states might have to give up control over budgeting to a federally appointed board).

                No state will be allowed to default until the federal government defaults.
                The state of Arkansas defaulted in the Great Depression and so did 16% of all muni's. In 1873 the default rate was 23%.
                Arkansas' creditors were eventually repaid in full, however its bonds fell to 10 cents on the dollar at one point. I'm waiting for a bloodbath in munis, and then to pick up some nice deals.

                Comment

                Working...
                X