Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

For what it's worth, I would be very surprised if we ever get another "time to short" call in this environment. Bernanke seems hell-bent on arresting asset deflation and will goose the markets to prevent something like October 2008 and March 2009 from happening again.

I think for people who are not capable of very frequent trading but insist on playing in the stock market, their best bet is to wait for corrections and buy near the interim bottoms and sell near interim tops; that is, long-only trades.

stock market's up... what... 10% since jul? gold's up 12% since then. phrang's been calling for a bigass ass assets down 'ka' deflation. maybe he's right.

[Mashuri]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Robert McHugh got it pretty much spot on with his call:

We believe the top is in for the rally from March 2009. We believe that top occurred yesterday, January 14th, 2010...

I've been following McHugh's newsletter since late 2008 and, unlike Prechter, this was his only call for a top in the countertrend rally (missed by 2 days and about half a point). Interestingly, he's a deflationist when it comes to the stock market and believes there is a high risk of the entire market going to zero! I find that hard to believe but his accurate TA calls have certainly helped my portfolio. We'll see how it plays out but my stops are set to keep a profit regardless.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

stock market's up... what... 10% since jul? gold's up 12% since then. phrang's been calling for a bigass ass assets down 'ka' deflation. maybe he's right.

I hope I didn't misunderstand what you wrote above but I'm not suggesting that people trade/invest in stocks instead of gold; I should have made that clearer in my earlier comment. The iTulip recommendation of 30% gold and 70% USD/Treasuries is fine and dandy but some might feel uncomfortable holding a whopping 70% of their assets in USD/Treasuries thanks to Bernanke's actions to nudge money into risk assets. For many, that means putting money into stocks in some fashion. I was just expressing my opinion that going short is a bad idea since there likely will be intervention in the markets to prevent substantial downturns.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

This isn't rocket science folks ....

on March 4, 2009 ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVfhTPLkOj0

and January 21, 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUEv9-tFd64

It is not a "Stock Market" anymore .... it is a "Stock Trust"

[jtabeb]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

nice going!
gold killed even worse...



gold costs 38% cap gains tax to sell + 4% bid/ask spread vs stocks. is that why it falls more in these corrections?

I think it's more the unlimited leverage used in spiking it down (Silver, EVEN more so). Could be wrong, but that's my guess.

BTW, if you all missed it. I WOULD NOT BE GOING LONG DOLLARS RIGHT NOW, Esp. BY SELLING Physical precious metals to do so.

WE ARE "HEADED FOR A SUDDEN STOP" as EJ said earlier, esp in light of this market behavior. If you jump in to the rallying dollar, you may just find yourself PERFECTLY ADVANTAGED to be exposed 100% to currency risk.


I think these charts says it all. That's my call folks, make up your own minds.

(From EJ's "Does the US 2009 = Argentina 2001" article)

Figures below are for Argentina during their crisis. Watch and heed.

[jpatter666]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

We may indeed be heading for a sudden stop, but I don't see signs of it anytime soon. I think what we are getting is EJ's bouncing ball analogy.

We had a big-Ka, then QE, bit of a poom, now I think a new Ka (probably not as big) is upcoming. We may see another poom after that.

KA-poom-Ka-poom-ka-poom.

THEN your sudden stop POOOOOM.

[jtabeb]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

We may indeed be heading for a sudden stop, but I don't see signs of it anytime soon. I think what we are getting is EJ's bouncing ball analogy.

We had a big-Ka, then QE, bit of a poom, now I think a new Ka (probably not as big) is upcoming. We may see another poom after that.

KA-poom-Ka-poom-ka-poom.

THEN your sudden stop POOOOOM.

Strongly disagree. The gloves have come and the illusions are failing fast, when the "local reality" starts to collapse it can proceed very very quickly.

Nobody get hurt out there okay?

[jpatter666]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Strongly disagree. The gloves have come and the illusions are failing fast, when the "local reality" starts to collapse it can proceed very very quickly.

Nobody get hurt out there okay?

OK, but *how*? I saw the Argentina charts, but you can't do a direct compare to that. Argentina peso was a pegged currency, only so much rhyming there.

I'm watching everything closely.

FWIW, my wife is onsite in Haiti helping with the response there. It reminds me to keep things in perspective. Things could be a lot worse.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

This isn't rocket science folks ....

on March 4, 2009 ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVfhTPLkOj0

and January 21, 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUEv9-tFd64

It is not a "Stock Market" anymore .... it is a "Stock Trust"

i look at it this way. if i fell asleep in stocks & gold jan. 2009 my world looks like this...

gold $847.50

s&p 931

wake up today... what do i see?

gold $1064 up 20%

s&p 1064 up 13%

after all is said & done, which has done better?

[sunskyfan]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

I am with you at this point. It would be silly to argue. Anything that depends on complexity or scale are currently doomed to be random if not collapsing.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

I am with you at this point. It would be silly to argue. Anything that depends on complexity or scale are currently doomed to be random if not collapsing.

beat the wsj forecast.

had a browser window open from feb. 2 i forgot about... screen capture...

[Mashuri]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

US doesn't equal Argentina in one key area: The USD is the reserve currency. Those tend to die a slower death, like the British pound last century. I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket, however, and wouldn't recommend selling any core metals holdings.

I think it's more the unlimited leverage used in spiking it down (Silver, EVEN more so). Could be wrong, but that's my guess.

BTW, if you all missed it. I WOULD NOT BE GOING LONG DOLLARS RIGHT NOW, Esp. BY SELLING Physical precious metals to do so.

WE ARE "HEADED FOR A SUDDEN STOP" as EJ said earlier, esp in light of this market behavior. If you jump in to the rallying dollar, you may just find yourself PERFECTLY ADVANTAGED to be exposed 100% to currency risk.


I think these charts says it all. That's my call folks, make up your own minds.

(From EJ's "Does the US 2009 = Argentina 2001" article)

Figures below are for Argentina during their crisis. Watch and heed.

[ASH]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

BTW, if you all missed it. I WOULD NOT BE GOING LONG DOLLARS RIGHT NOW, Esp. BY SELLING Physical precious metals to do so.

I volunteer to be that guinea pig. (But not with any of my physical PM.) I went to cash in my retirement accounts last Friday, and now I'm looking for a good re-entry point to buy paper PM and energy again. If we get a sudden stop in the US while I'm sitting in cash, then I will definitely take it on the chin. But I figure that if I'm going to be contrary by staying in retirement accounts, I may as well compound that heresy by going to cash now.

Long term, I think my take on the economy -- and gold -- is similar to yours. I still have my physical PM insurance, I am still expecting gold to do a moon shot eventually, and I am still expecting dollar crisis. It's just that I have concluded the steam-roller is moving pretty slowly, and I think I see some other countries in its path before it gets to us, so my assessment is that vacuuming a few nickels is worth the risk. Anyway, my point is that I'm not disregarding your recommendations just to be contrary or pick an argument, even though I seem to have ended up on the other side of a few of these calls recently.

[Southernguy]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Please send congratulations to your wife.
Of course Argentina is not the USA.
I think that a sudden stop episode is not impossible in the US.
But, first, things shall develop in Europe.
Today there is an article in WSJ by N. Roubini and other guy. The most funny part being "England, Ireland and Iceland also smell of bacon", referring to the PIGS acronym.
Suddent stop shall happen first in some of these countries, then, everything is possible.
For some time (months???) we shall see a very strong dollar, at least as compared against Euro and other paper currencies. This seems to be another Ka episode. And a very severe one, so, deflation for quite some time.
European countries, except Britain are constrained against a fixed Euro, which they cannot print freely, at least without French and German approval, they only way out is a bailout from former mentioned or more debt emission. The latter is more and more difficult. The former is yet to be seen. In any case the Euro, and the pound are f*******ed.

OK, but *how*? I saw the Argentina charts, but you can't do a direct compare to that. Argentina peso was a pegged currency, only so much rhyming there.

I'm watching everything closely.

FWIW, my wife is onsite in Haiti helping with the response there. It reminds me to keep things in perspective. Things could be a lot worse.

[seanm123]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Not so fast says FIRE.

From ZeroHedge.

Save this screenshot, and show it to your grandkids. They can take it to history class…if there’s even such a thing as school around at that point.



“As can be seen on the SPY IOIA screen below, JPM’s ETF desk singlehandedly manages to push market higher. It is unknown if this is for prop positions (yes Senator Corker, we know it when we see it), or flow (JPM is RenTec’s. and many other quant funds’ Prime Dealer) is unknown. What is known is that JPM indicates every single SPY offer was lifted by its sage trader.”


No, Dorothy, there is no such thing as the PPT…