Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

[metalman]

nice going!

'First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ended' Feb. 2, 2010

Feb. 4, 2010...

gold killed even worse...



gold costs 38% cap gains tax to sell + 4% bid/ask spread vs stocks. is that why it falls more in these corrections?

[Chomsky]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

nice going!
gold killed even worse...



gold costs 38% cap gains tax to sell + 4% bid/ask spread vs stocks. is that why it falls more in these corrections?

Or is because many gold "investors," conditioned by 30 years of FIRE bullhorning, only buy gold while holding their noses?

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Or is because many gold "investors," conditioned by 30 years of FIRE bullhorning, only buy gold while holding their noses?

gold off 4% & stocks off 3%. in the scheme of things... no big deal.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

nice going!
gold killed even worse...



gold costs 38% cap gains tax to sell + 4% bid/ask spread vs stocks. is that why it falls more in these corrections?

Greece is going moussaka and people selling their gold? Oh pluuezze.

I will buy it from them with my colored money.

[Chomsky]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

I'm with you metalman, no big deal.

[ASH]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

nice going!

I don't think much credit can be awarded for an "end of the rally" call after having missed the first such call so badly last year, with the "end of the first bounce" call June 17th.

EJ has a good record, and he is honest about it, but in my opinion there have been two missed "end of rally" calls since the middle of last year. EJ could well be correct about this call, but it is the third, and it is the nature of such market turning point calls that only the first one counts. If EJ is right this time, it won't rank up there with some of his stellar calls from the past.

For that matter, we seem to be assuming that the long-awaited correction is at hand. I would say the judgement is better made after more than a day or two of trading.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Personally, until EJ offers up one of his 'Time to Short' signals, I will take it that he's talking about the LIKELIHOOD of the market going down, but not with enough conviction that he's putting a lot of money behind the call.

Since I've been on this site I think I've only seen him say Time to Short the Market and Time to Short Commercial real estate. Both of those calls were right as long as you took your profits when you had them.

I'm still waiting for the next 'Time to ....' before I do anything significant with my portfolio.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Personally, until EJ offers up one of his 'Time to Short' signals, I will take it that he's talking about the LIKELIHOOD of the market going down, but not with enough conviction that he's putting a lot of money behind the call.

Since I've been on this site I think I've only seen him say Time to Short the Market and Time to Short Commercial real estate. Both of those calls were right as long as you took your profits when you had them.

I'm still waiting for the next 'Time to ....' before I do anything significant with my portfolio.

exactly right... i'm not 'woried' that i'll miss making $$$ on a correction, but i sure as shit am glad to not be on the 'new bull market/recovery' bandwagon.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

I don't think much credit can be awarded for an "end of the rally" call after having missed the first such call so badly last year, with the "end of the first bounce" call June 17th.

EJ has a good record, and he is honest about it, but in my opinion there have been two missed "end of rally" calls since the middle of last year. EJ could well be correct about this call, but it is the third, and it is the nature of such market turning point calls that only the first one counts. If EJ is right this time, it won't rank up there with some of his stellar calls from the past.

For that matter, we seem to be assuming that the long-awaited correction is at hand. I would say the judgement is better made after more than a day or two of trading.

if not 'time to short' then i don't short. 'end of debt deflation bear market bounce' to me = 1996 nikkei shit show not 1990 nikkei 40% crash = usa 2008 40% crash. stocks off 20% - 25% this year. that's what i read. pls point me to other info if i got that wrong.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

if not 'time to short' then i don't short. 'end of debt deflation bear market bounce' to me = 1996 nikkei shit show not 1990 nikkei 40% crash = usa 2008 40% crash. stocks off 20% - 25% this year. that's what i read. pls point me to other info if i got that wrong.

It was stated in The cheh Shaped Recovery, Part II: Yield curve says what? ZIRP hell for debtors, First Bounce is over, Entering the high volatility zone.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

It was stated in The cheh Shaped Recovery, Part II: Yield curve says what? ZIRP hell for debtors, First Bounce is over, Entering the high volatility zone.

thx, mk. forgot about that one. he should have called the latest... 'first bounce is over... really this time... no kidding'

[ASH]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

if not 'time to short' then i don't short. 'end of debt deflation bear market bounce' to me = 1996 nikkei shit show not 1990 nikkei 40% crash = usa 2008 40% crash. stocks off 20% - 25% this year. that's what i read. pls point me to other info if i got that wrong.

If EJ made a recommendation to trade along with his recent call, then that changes things. My select membership lapsed recently, and I have not gotten around to renewing it to read the second part of his recent commentary. If that included a trading recommendation, then I stand corrected. If there was no trading recommendation, then I think you are being inconsistent.

In this thread, you laud a recent call that was -- to my knowledge -- unaccompanied by a recommendation to trade. I pointed out that the same call -- again without a recommendation to trade -- had been made and missed twice in the last year. Nowhere in my post did I complain that EJ had recommended trades which lost anyone money. Therefore, I do not see the relevance of your "short/don't short" comment. I think you may be recycling your argument from other threads in which people who had traded based upon those earlier calls complained about losing money, but that argument does not apply to this particular case.

Logically, if you can praise EJ for being right about a call that didn't include a recommendation to trade, I am justified in criticizing missed calls of the same category. I think my remarks about the usefulness of 'end of rally' calls -- and the diminishing credit due for repeated calls of the same nature -- stand.

To be clear, the point of my response to your thread is that if EJ turns out to be right about this recent call, it will less impressive than other calls he has gotten right. I am not criticizing EJ or his record; I am pointing out that your enthusiasm for this call -- and its potential accuracy -- seems excessive. If anything, I think you and I would agree that a call which is unaccompanied by a "time to short" recommendation is less significant than a trading recommendation.

Again, if the second part of EJ's recent article was accompanied by a recommendation to short the market, then my position would be different. But I am unaware of such a recommendation.

[metalman]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

Again, if the second part of EJ's recent article was accompanied by a recommendation to short the market, then my position would be different. But I am unaware of such a recommendation.

he doesn't recommend a short... says the debt deflation bear market 'process' isn't predictable after the first year... no kidding.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

thx, mk. forgot about that one. he should have called the latest... 'first bounce is over... really this time... no kidding'

For what it's worth, I would be very surprised if we ever get another "time to short" call in this environment. Bernanke seems hell-bent on arresting asset deflation and will goose the markets to prevent something like October 2008 and March 2009 from happening again.

I think for people who are not capable of very frequent trading but insist on playing in the stock market, their best bet is to wait for corrections and buy near the interim bottoms and sell near interim tops; that is, long-only trades.

[ASH]

Re: Eric Janszen slaps stock market with 'end of rally' call

he doesn't recommend a short... says the debt deflation bear market 'process' isn't predictable after the first year... no kidding.

Thanks. I'm about to get right with Jesus (pay my select subscription) and read the second part of that article.