-
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” (or, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent") is a statement often attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). There is no record that Keynes ever said it or wrote it.Originally posted by Mega View Post
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
And yet it's true. For what it's worth, while I have some minor shorts on treasuries, I don't think it is worth going whole hog -- yet. Eurozone in trouble, Japan hasn't been well for decades, bubble worries in China.Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” (or, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent") is a statement often attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). There is no record that Keynes ever said it or wrote it.
Yes, the US sucks, but it is (again) in the enviable position of being the best out of a bunch of poor choices (for now). We may yet get another flight to "quality" where people are worried instead of appreciation of capital, the *return* of capital.
Sigh....well, just gives me a chance to add PMs and maybe some decent stocks this time (I made a decent list from the last lows).Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
While being long T's is bad, being short them can blow up - hard.
The better trade is to short silver/gold/commods/CAD/AUD etcComment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
True -- I'm just holding a few TBTs to keep a toe in the water.Originally posted by phirang View PostComment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
"It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings" - Some Famous EconomistOriginally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” (or, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent") is a statement often attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). There is no record that Keynes ever said it or wrote it.
(the only economist or analyst I listen to)Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
setting aside for the moment the astonishingly poor performance of his fund, how exactly do I "short US treasuries" and which counter party should I trust?
I just read that Greek banks are major holders of Greek CDS. How does that work? Who pays off in the event of default?Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
buy TBT like Jpatter said above.Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121...lly-flow-againIt's the Debt, stupid!!Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
These words should have attached:Originally posted by Mega View Post
Warning! Highly risky speculation!
Why? Everybody knows UST are going down. The case against UST is strong. And well known, front-burner stuff, to every hedge fund manager, mutual fund manager, Wall Street investment bank, and trading desk in the world. And you think the market has not yet fully priced this in?
Yes, UST are in a long term bear market. But stocks are too, and you sure didn't want to short them on March 6, 2009, did you?Finster
...Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Hey...quit telling people to short everything I own.Originally posted by phirang View Post
"...the western financial system has already failed. The failure has just not yet been realized, while the system remains confident that it is still alive." JesseComment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Fin
How much more down side has the stock market got....9,000 ish?
MikeComment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Funny, I was about to ask you that question ... ;)Originally posted by Mega View Post
If you'd've asked a couple hours ago, I'd have said yes. Since then, we had one of those V-shaped formations that typically marks bottoms, this one probably good enough for at least a short term bottom. Pull up an intraday chart of the S&P to see what I mean. It was just enough to kick my short-term computer model into slightly positive mode, too. But just slightly. And the next two longer term figures still are in the red. In sum, a luke-warmish picture suggesting at least a pause in the selloff if not an outright reversal.Finster
...Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Can't fathom this at all:-
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...d-catastrophe/
MikeComment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Not even gonna try. Basic rule of thumb: If it's complicated or gimmicky, don't get into it. All the more so if it looks like it can't go wrong. Let's see ... if everybody had played by that rule since 2000 ...Originally posted by Mega View PostFinster
...Comment
-
Re: Every Human should be short US T bills
Taleb got his ass kicked Friday...
I'm still waiting for gold to breach 1k, and I'm pretty confident it will. I might actually get some Feb/March GLD puts... hmm. Let's wait for a moron rally, eh?Comment
For a concise, readable summary of iTulip concepts developed over the past 16 years and a vision of a challenging next decade and how to navigate it, read Eric Janszen's book "Post Catastrophe Economy".
Join the discussion of today's events with a wide range of professionals with an interest in economics and finance. Register to join our 50,000 plus member registered community from 78 countries today.
Subscribe to iTulip Select for access to the longest running, deep, accurate, and unvarnished macro economic trends analysis and forecasting available, since 1998.
- If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Working...
Tweet
Comment