So gold's a bubble Hmm?

[hayekvindicated]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Big question: at what level did Soros buy gold?

[jtabeb]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Big question: at what level did Soros buy gold?

$42.00 back in '71?:rolleyes:

[grapejelly]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Soros didn't mean "gold is in a bubble." He meant that ultra cheap interest rates and unlimited free money would create a bunch of bubbles and that the ultimate bubble would be the bubble in gold. And he is right, as Steve Saville pointed out this morning in his weekly letter. Gold will be the ultimate bubble when those with money are looking for a parking place out of paper's way.

A bubble is NOT prices going up. That is just ordinary stuff. A bubble is buying to get in by the last suckers who watched all the other smarter sucker make money. A bubble is formed only rarely. It's like a big earthquake. Over hundreds of years, not uncommon, but over a person's lifetime, not that common.

We've seen, in my lifetime:

Late 1970s bubbles in gold and silver ending in 1980-1981

Late 1990s bubble in stock prices ending in 2000.

2000-2005 bubble in real estate in the US.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

LOL!! I mean the current bull market. Rogers was running the Quantum Fund with Soros back then and they sold it at $675 - Rogers actually shorted it at $675 back then. He must have taken a caning for a few days by shorting it at that price. They still performed quite well though - the fund returned 100 percent in 1980.

$42 gold back in 71 was a joke. My family probably bought some even cheaper - you could legally buy in India even then.

[grapejelly]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Rogers wasn't keen on gold for the longest time. Now he has changed his mind and is quite bullish on gold.

[photoncounter]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

I think if you read this commentary by Jesse and put your thinking cap on, you'll come to the correct conclusion.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...-holdings.html

What is interesting to me in this article is that the "official gold holdings since 1950" chart -- official holding of gold has been decreasing since the early 70's. Isn't that something to worry about ?

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

....official holding of gold has been decreasing since the early 70's. Isn't that something to worry about ?

No longer a worry with the reversal in mid - 2009.



In fact , Jim Rickards just did a yeoman's job in detailing current , official sector supply/demand fundamentals.

Listen - Saturday, January 30, 2010

[goadam1]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

I still contend: if oil drops, then so will gold.

[phirang]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

I don't belive gold is a bubble *yet*

HOWEVER, it's "that time" in the cycle for gold to get shellacked.

If you bought gold at 600, you're fine.

If you're one of the late arrivals at +1k... you may get a call from your broker. :eek:

I am looking to short gold through wednesday, and will see how much downside momentum we get. Friday was obviously a oversold panic, but the trend is clear: lower.

[sishya]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

I don't belive gold is a bubble *yet*

HOWEVER, it's "that time" in the cycle for gold to get shellacked.

If you bought gold at 600, you're fine.

If you're one of the late arrivals at +1k... you may get a call from your broker. :eek:

I am looking to short gold through wednesday, and will see how much downside momentum we get. Friday was obviously a oversold panic, but the trend is clear: lower.

If Gold falls below $1000, there will be a lot of physical buying from emerging economy countries. There will be more physical demand. Unlike in the West, Gold has a totally different meaning in poorer countries. If there is Panic with regards to Gold in West, there will be Greed in East.

Even when Gold was drifting lower during the past 20 years, people in India
bought more Gold, never sold them. The value attached is different for Gold. Buy more when Low and Buy less when High.

[pwcmba]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

I don't belive gold is a bubble *yet*

HOWEVER, it's "that time" in the cycle for gold to get shellacked.

If you bought gold at 600, you're fine.

If you're one of the late arrivals at +1k... you may get a call from your broker. :eek:

I am looking to short gold through wednesday, and will see how much downside momentum we get. Friday was obviously a oversold panic, but the trend is clear: lower.

Why do you get a call from your broker about your paid in full bars and coins?

I understand some shorts are getting said call tomorrow morning.:eek:

[phirang]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Why do you get a call from your broker about your paid in full bars and coins?

I understand some shorts are getting said call tomorrow morning.:eek:

Gold rallied today, as did GS and a bunch of other overpriced stocks.

My point is, gold will correct with the S&P: it's very well correlated to it now.

It will decouple in the future, but at the moment, the spec capital pouring into gold is from people who ignore the absence of the Fed in the agency market.

Have fun.

[goadam1]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

Gold rallied today, as did GS and a bunch of other overpriced stocks.

My point is, gold will correct with the S&P: it's very well correlated to it now.

It will decouple in the future, but at the moment, the spec capital pouring into gold is from people who ignore the absence of the Fed in the agency market.

Have fun.

gold and oil both went up. They are in a range and are moving almost together. If you can suddenly buy 20 barrels of oil with an ounce of gold, then I would buy more oil. And vice-versa.

[phirang]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

gold and oil both went up. They are in a range and are moving almost together. If you can suddenly buy 20 barrels of oil with an ounce of gold, then I would buy more oil. And vice-versa.

you don't get it.

a lot of "crap" went up today.

replace gold/oil/BAC with "crap".

same difference.

[goadam1]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

you don't get it.

a lot of "crap" went up today.

replace gold/oil/BAC with "crap".

same difference.

ouch! I'm a pretty well off guy, so I must GET something. Here is what I GET. More money than can see a great r.o.i.. More debt than can be repaid by production. More hunger for return than can be produced. So while the illusion of safety reigns, everything will trade at a premium. That said, both gold and oil are expensive. And we all know that "inflation" and the markets are running on stimulus. So runaway (short of a poom disaster) prices in either seems unlikely. At 15:1 gold is running more expensive. Which is essential? Would a whole world of debt deflation be triggered by $900 gold or $50 oil? I wouldn't call gold a bubble, but I would say you would be paying a "relative" premium, as currency insurance, at this price.