So gold's a bubble Hmm?

[phirang]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

ouch! I'm a pretty well off guy, so I must GET something. Here is what I GET. More money than can see a great r.o.i.. More debt than can be repaid by production. More hunger for return than can be produced. So while the illusion of safety reigns, everything will trade at a premium. That said, both gold and oil are expensive. And we all know that "inflation" and the markets are running on stimulus. So runaway (short of a poom disaster) prices in either seems unlikely. At 15:1 gold is running more expensive. Which is essential? Would a whole world of debt deflation be triggered by $900 gold or $50 oil? I wouldn't call gold a bubble, but I would say you would be paying a "relative" premium, as currency insurance, at this price.

REITs did brilliantly today.

There's your correlation

Since Jan 19th, the market has DEFINITELY changed: the easy days of dumb guys making 50% are OVER. The Fed HAS turned a corner, at least in the short term, and all the smart guys I know are using rallies like today to sell shares they aren't content to hold for 3 years.

[flintlock]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

you don't get it.

a lot of "crap" went up today.

replace gold/oil/BAC with "crap".

same difference.

A lot of "crap" has been going up since last march. P/E ratios are sky high. Gold is no more a bubble than stocks right now. Who knows, they both may be headed for a fall. But after what I've seen in the last year, I'm not shorting anything. Are you long anything?

[phirang]

Re: So gold's a bubble Hmm?

A lot of "crap" has been going up since last march. P/E ratios are sky high. Gold is no more a bubble than stocks right now. Who knows, they both may be headed for a fall. But after what I've seen in the last year, I'm not shorting anything. Are you long anything?

I've LT holdings that are reasonably robust, i.e. 0 BK risk.

My problem with gold at these prices is what it took to get here and how sustainable those policies are ST. Also, Treasuries are going to suck up more money in the near-future, housing prices will go back down because of higher mtg rates (Fed leaving), and so, again, in the ST, there isn't the "wind" behind gold's back.