Davos Watch...

[GRG55]

A thread to track the readings of the tea leaves coming out of Davos...

To start there's been a pretty concerted effort coming out of Davos to publicly call into question peak oil forecasts:

Saudis say don't worry about peak oil

DAVOS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - There is still plenty of oil in the ground and the world should put aside fears about "peak oil", the head of the Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco said on Thursday.

The concern about peak oil is behind us," chief executive Khalid al-Falih told a session on energy supplies at the World Economic Forum in Davos...

...Total's (TOTF.PA) chief executive Thierry Desmarest said the world would struggle to surpass 95 million barrels per day (BPD) in the future -- 10 percent above present levels. "The problem of peak oil remains," he told the same panel.

His contention was swatted aside by Falih.

"Of the 4 trillion (barrels) of oil the planet is endowed with, only 1 has been produced," Falih said.

"Granted most of what remains is more difficult and complex (to exploit) ... there's no doubt we can do a lot more than the 95, 100 (million barrels) that are projected in the next few decades."...

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

A thread to track the readings of the tea leaves coming out of Davos...

To start there's been a pretty concerted effort coming out of Davos to publicly call into question peak oil forecasts:

Saudis say don't worry about peak oil...

BP Chief Hayward Says Growth in Iraqi Oil Output May Be Slow

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said Iraqi oil production may grow more slowly than companies expect.

“The challenges of execution on the ground and the need to build capability on the ground will mean that things will happen a little slower than all of us are perhaps planning on today,” Hayward said in a discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Still, “There’s no reason to believe Iraq can’t be producing 10 million barrels a day by 2020 or so.”

Hayward and Royal Dutch Shell Plc CEO Peter Voser said that the key challenge for oil companies is to meet rising energy demand worldwide in the coming years. Hayward predicted that the companies will have to add 50 million barrels of oil a day to their capacity in the next two decades, four times what Saudi Arabia produces now.

“I do see the challenge in the same way,” Voser said. “It’s a huge challenge to deliver this increased energy.”...

...Khalid Al-Falih, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said he welcomed Iraq’s contribution to meeting higher world demand. Saudi Arabia will be able to step up production with new projects even as output at existing wells slows, he said.

“We have a long list of projects in our portfolio that will do more than offset our decline,” Al-Falih said on the panel. “The industry as a whole has been amazingly capable of tackling complex challenges.”...

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

And of course it wouldn't be Davos without a few words from my favourite energy "guru" now would it...:rolleyes:

January 27, 2010, 9:01 AM ET
Energy Guru Brings Good News to Davos

By Geoffrey Smith

All the world loves a bringer of good news, so energy guru Daniel Yergin should by all rights be guaranteed a warm welcome at Davos this week.

Governments may be buckling under debt loads, paper currencies hurtling toward their traditional terminal value of zero, but at least the world is not running out of energy supplies. The awful day of “peak oil,” when the world will have depleted its finite hydrocarbon resources to the point where it can never again increase production, is still a long way off, he reckons. “The big determinants (to global energy supply) are the above-ground risks — politics, the quality of decision-making, and costs and so on,” says the genial author of “The Prize,” the hugely acclaimed history of the oil industry and founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

As for the stuff in the ground — there’s plenty of it. Yergin expects investment in new technology to continue reducing the cost of energy production from oil sands that hold vast untapped reserves, although the cooling of the oil market since its 2008 peak might slow down the pace of such investment in the short term.

Moreover, he reckons the rest of the world might be in for the same kind of bonanza in alternative sources of natural gas similar to the one the U.S. has enjoyed in recent years. The preliminary, and he stresses the word, findings of CERA research into possible shale gas deposits outside North America suggest the reserves in place “may be equal to the world’s currently proven reserves.”...

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

A thread to track the readings of the tea leaves coming out of Davos...

Gulf Gap in Davos Belies Booming Saudi Arabia Economy

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The program for this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos features no speakers from Qatar, Dubai or Abu Dhabi in any of the conference’s 230 events. Five spots are occupied by Saudis and four by Kuwaitis.

“I think the absence of the Middle East is quite conspicuous,” said Ibrahim Dabdoub, chief executive officer of the National Bank of Kuwait, interviewed in the conference center in the Swiss village. “It’s a pity that Gulf involvement is so low.”

Especially for anyone looking to make money. Six weeks after Dubai almost defaulted on $4.1 billion in debt, the region as a whole is set to prosper...

...Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are spending $600 billion by the end of 2013 to build roads, railways and new cities while expanding energy and manufacturing.

The GCC countries are forecast by HSBC Holdings Plc to post an average expansion of 4 percent or more in 2010, after no increase last year. That compares with projected growth of 2.7 percent in the U.S. and 1 percent in the 16-nation euro zone, according to the International Monetary Fund...

...“As a region I think we are on the cusp of some very, very serious growth opportunities in the years ahead,” said Arif Naqvi, CEO of Dubai-based Abraaj Capital Ltd., the biggest private-equity company in the GCC, in an interview in Davos.

“It is probably higher than in other parts of the world. There is liquidity and there is a desire.”...

...The kingdom last year announced that it would spend $400 billion on projects including three new railway lines and six new industrial cities over five years. It is the largest stimulus package in the Group of 20 nations as a share of gross domestic product. This year, almost $70 billion will go to roads, railways, airports and other projects, a 16 percent increase over 2009...

...“Oil prices will be a very important driver of confidence in the region,” said Dubai-based Monica Malik, chief Middle East economist at EFG-Hermes...

No kidding...;)

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

Gulf Gap in Davos Belies Booming Saudi Arabia Economy

But be careful how you invest in it...:p

Islamic finance "safe" billing is myth: Qatar regulator

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - It's a myth to assume Islamic finance products are safer than conventional products and underlying risks should be studied more carefully, Qatar's top regulator said on Wednesday...

...Despite being billed as a safer alternative to traditional banking because assets must underpin deals, Islamic bondholders have found they may not have any more legal safeguards than conventional counterparts in the event of default.

Such issues were highlighted after sukuk -- or Islamic bonds -- had the first ever defaults last year.

Sukuk, one of the flagship products in the $1 trillion Islamic finance industry, are structured as profit-sharing or rental agreements and returns are derived from underlying assets because Islamic laws prohibits paying or earning interest...

[MulaMan]

Re: Davos Watch...

Believe it when you see $0.99 per gallon oil.

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

New lyrics, same ol' tune...:rolleyes:

Choose reform or recovery, bankers tell leaders at Davos

The world's bankers have descended on Davos to warn that heavy-handed reforms could choke off the economic recovery...

...Now, as governments in the United States, Britain and France are pushing for measures to curb their trading, tax their bonuses, and trim them so they are not too big to be allowed to fail, the bankers have come back to make their case against the proposed regulatory reforms.

The rush to create rules in various jurisdictions could lead banks to structure their businesses to take advantage of rules in different places, warned Joseph Ackerman, the chairman of Deutsche Bank.

“We will all be losers if we don't have an efficient market in place,” he said...

Bob Diamond, president of Barclays PLC, also had a warning, the type not normally heard in the collegial confines of the big-think atmosphere at Davos...

...“I've seen no evidence that suggests that shrinking banks and making all banks smaller or more narrow is the answer,” Mr. Diamond said during a panel discussion Wednesday on financial reforms. “If you step back and say large is bad, and we move to narrow banking, the impact of that on banks and on global trade, the global economy, would be very negative.”...

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: Davos Watch...

So there is no peak oil then.

Why then is Gwah, the largest oil field in the world pumping out more water than oil?

Why do the Saudis still refuse to have an independent audit of their oil fields? This would allay fears and suspicions.

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

BP Chief Hayward Says Growth in Iraqi Oil Output May Be Slow

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said Iraqi oil production may grow more slowly than companies expect.

“The challenges of execution on the ground and the need to build capability on the ground will mean that things will happen a little slower than all of us are perhaps planning on today,” Hayward said in a discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Still, “There’s no reason to believe Iraq can’t be producing 10 million barrels a day by 2020 or so.”

Just for the record there is one very good reason why one should be sceptical of statements like the above from BP's Tony Hayward.

Iraq has never in its history produced more than 4 million barrels per day of crude oil, and only rarely ever produced more than 3 million barrels per day. The history of oil in Mesopotamia dates back prior to WWI...

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

A thread to track the readings of the tea leaves coming out of Davos...

Apparently the beach climate at Cancun is more conducive to get the mind to focus on global warming deal making than the chilly environs of Copenhagen.

[Probably better for mermaid sightings too, don...;)]

Davos 2010: Leaders vow climate deal in Mexico


Politicians at the World Economic Forum in Davos have vowed to reach a "substantial" deal on climate change.
The world's leaders will meet in Cancun, Mexico, later this year - after a disappointing conclusion to talks in Copenhagen last month.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon acknowledged that there were "low expectations" for Cancun.

But he said: "Our objective is to reach a robust, substantial and comprehensive agreement"...

...In a response that contained a number of "ifs" he said, "If we can find an economic mechanism ... we will be on track."...

[..."If we can all find somebody else to pay the freight, we'll have a deal..."]

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

To bail out, or not to bail out...that is the question...

Davos 2010: Greece denies a bail-out is needed


Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou has denied speculation that it will have to be bailed out by the European Union (EU).

Reports have suggested that the EU will pump money to help Greece - whose public finances are in ruins.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he also said countries like his "are being used as the weak link, if you like, of the eurozone."

European leaders also denied that Greece would be kicked out of the euro.

"Nobody's going to be leaving the euro," Spain's Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said...

Everybody got that? The EU doesn't bail out Greece, and Greece doesn't bail out of the EU. Or so they say

Hotel California done to the tune of Never on Sunday?

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

Could it be that the most useful thing to come out of Microsoft isn't an operating system or a word processor?

From Times Online

January 29, 2010


Bill Gates pledges $10bn for a 'decade of vaccine'

Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder and philanthropist, is to make the largest ever single charitable donation with a pledge of $10 billion (£6 billion) for vaccine work over the next decade.

Mr Gates said that he hoped the coming ten years would be the “decade of the vaccine” to reduce dramatically child mortality in the world’s poorest countries. It is calculated that his pledge could save more than 8 million lives.

Announcing the commitment, which far outstrips even the enormous previous donations by his own foundation, Mr Gates called for increased investment by governments and the private sector to help to research, develop and deliver vaccines...

...Among the infections to be targeted with the money are rotavirus, which causes severe diarrhoea, and pneumococcal disease, which causes pneumonia, blood poisoning, and a form of meningitis.

By significantly scaling up the delivery of life-saving vaccines in developing countries to 90 per cent coverage — including the new vaccines to prevent severe diarrhoea and pneumonia — the model suggests that the deaths of 7.6 million children under the age of 5 could be prevented between now and 2019.

It also estimates that an additional 1.1 million children could be saved with the rapid introduction of a malaria vaccine beginning in 2014.

Mr Gates said that if additional vaccines such as for tuberculosis were developed and introduced in this decade even more lives could be saved...

[bill]

Re: Davos Watch...

How’s the King taking all the news????

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...q-1882491.html

Friday, 29 January 2010
The leaders of two of the world's biggest oil companies have pledged to rebuild Iraq's oil industry and boost production to about 10 million barrels of oil a day over the next decade – more than the current production of the world's largest producer, Saudi Arabia.

Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP, said that his company hoped to increase production in the Iraqi field it has agreed to modernise from one million to three million barrels a day over the next 10 years. His counterpart at Royal Dutch Shell, Peter Voser, made a similar commitment on the two fields Shell is involved with.

Mr Hayward suggested that the return of Iraq to mass production for the international market after years of disruption due to war and international sanctions would be "an important contribution" to plugging the expected gap between global supply and demand in coming decades. Mr Hayward put the gap at 50 million barrels of oil a day by 2030 unless there was an increase in investment, more price stability and support from governments.
"We are cautiously optimistic about the potential that Iraq can play in providing a new source of supply to global oil markets," he said.
However, he also warned that progress could be interrupted: "The realities of the challenges of execution on the ground and the need to build capability on the ground mean things will happen a little slower than all of us are perhaps planning for today.
"The resources there are relatively easy to bring on stream and there is no reason to believe that Iraq can't be producing 10 million bpd by 2020 or so."
Mr Hayward added that the immediate outlook for the Western oil market is relatively subdued, though the long-term trend was for growth in demand and production from a current 85 million barrels a day to around 100 million a day by 2030: "None of us will sell more gasoline than in 2007" to developed markets, he said.
At the same session, Khalid al-Falih, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, was upbeat: "I'm convinced we will be able to do a lot more than the 95 to 100 [million barrels a day of global oil production that is projected]... The concern of peak oil is behind us."
Commenting on unconventional natural gas – reserves that are difficult to extract, for example from shale – Mr Hayward said it could be "a complete game-changer in the US. It probably transforms the US energy outlook for the next 100 years. It's yet to be seen if it can be applied globally."

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7005973.ece

[quote]
January 28, 2010


Davos: BP claims Iraq oil could rival Saudi Arabia


Iraqi oil production could rival that of Saudi Arabia by 2020, according to the chief executive of BP.
Tony Hayward told an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that within a decade Iraqi oil production could quadruple to 10 million barrels a day from 2.5 million barrels at present.
“The resources there are relatively easy to bring onstream and there is no reason to believe that Iraq can’t be producing 10 million barrels per day by 2020 or so.”
In 2008, Saudi Arabia was producing about 10 million barrels a day but has reduced that output.

[
BP is engaged in a partnership with CNPC, of China, to co-develop the Rumaila oilfield near Basra, one of the biggest in the world.
Mr Hayward said that BP planned to boost production from Rumaila from 1 million to 3 million barrels a day.
However, he cautioned that there were significant obstacles to overcome in the development of the Iraqi oil industry, which was shattered by years of war and sanctions.
He said: “The realities of the challenges of execution on the ground and the need to build capability on the ground mean things will happen a little slower than all of us are perhaps planning for today.
“If all of us who are participating there are reasonably successful in delivering on the commitments we have made, it is quite likely we will see Iraq increase its production to perhaps around 10 million barrels per day within about ten years.”
Iraq sits on at least 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the world's third-largest behind Saudi Arabia and Canada. /QUOTE]

[GRG55]

Re: Davos Watch...

Davos: BP claims Iraq oil could rival Saudi Arabia

...Tony Hayward told an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that within a decade Iraqi oil production could quadruple to 10 million barrels a day from 2.5 million barrels at present.
“The resources there are relatively easy to bring onstream and there is no reason to believe that Iraq can’t be producing 10 million barrels per day by 2020 or so.” ...

This is the oil industry equivalent of "Sub-prime is contained"...

[Read it as: "Peak cheap oil is contained" ]

[KGW]

Re: Davos Watch...

Just what we need. . .More bodies for the revolution? :rolleyes:

Could it be that the most useful thing to come out of Microsoft isn't an operating system or a world processor?

From Times Online

January 29, 2010


Bill Gates pledges $10bn for a 'decade of vaccine'

Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder and philanthropist, is to make the largest ever single charitable donation with a pledge of $10 billion (£6 billion) for vaccine work over the next decade.

Mr Gates said that he hoped the coming ten years would be the “decade of the vaccine” to reduce dramatically child mortality in the world’s poorest countries. It is calculated that his pledge could save more than 8 million lives.