Growth is not possible

[Aetius Romulous]

Re: Growth is not possible

Another reason why this isn't "basic math":

Just as resources are finite, so is the period of time over which they might be consumed. It is entirely possible to have exponential growth at such a slow rate that finite resources are not consumed before the sun goes out (for instance). This doesn't correspond to our actual growth rate, but the point is that if this was only a math problem, exponential growth itself isn't the problem.

Agree. Hard to argue against exponential growth in the aggregate - it's the issue of sustainability that matters at the moment.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Growth is not possible

Ahh.. hiccup.. I see.

Can you spot the hiccup on the chart below?

Too many monkeys on the rock.

[gnk]

Re: Growth is not possible

Too many monkeys on the rock.

Yes, but with the aid of yet to be discovered technology.... more and more monkeys will be able to live and prosper on that same rock... and they'll all have granite countertops and change their SUVs every 5 years. You know why? Because they're free and their god wants them to be happy.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Growth is not possible

Okay, but in the context of the thread. What is an infinitely negative resource? Hell? So, if we start in an infinitely negative position then things can get better forever? I now understand supply side economics, Southern Baptists and original sin much better than before. Thank you ;).

[ASH]

Re: Growth is not possible

Okay, but in the context of the thread. What is an infinitely negative resource? Hell? So, if we start in an infinitely negative position then things can get better forever? I now understand supply side economics, Southern Baptists and original sin much better than before. Thank you ;).

Alternatively, if there is no growth of material wealth but a steady decline in the population, then per-capita wealth should steadily increase... and in the limit of zero people, the per-capita wealth should go to infinity! So in a world where material wealth cannot increase forever, we can still enjoy growth in the standard of living for the survivors by gradually killing everybody off. (If only head count was a continuous variable rather than a discrete variable, we could string this out forever, right down to the last 1/100000000.... of a person.) But wait! Maybe it would be sufficient to simply concentrate that wealth in the hands of an increasingly smaller group of people, without actually having to kill everybody else! That way we could insure continued growth in the standard of living for somebody. The rest could reflect upon how true happiness is not to be derived from material things, and how their reward shall be enjoyed in the afterlife, where resources are unlimited. ;)

On a more serious note, I agree 100% with your observation elsewhere in this thread that there is a disconnect between intangible things that can scale exponentially forever, and tangible goods which cannot. Those reaping outsize financial rewards mainly work with intangible things like credit that can be rapidly expanded without connection to real goods, yet our financial system permits them to exchange the intangible fruits of their activity for tangible real-world goods... which is what makes them wealthy.

[vinoveri]

Re: Growth is not possible

[sunskyfan]

Re: Growth is not possible

Very good. We must have a beer sometime Ash .

[ggirod]

Re: Growth is not possible

Another voice on the topic -- Marvin Minsky "The Society of Mind & The Emotion Machine"

[media]"The Society of Mind & The Emotion Machine" from John Allen Bell on Vimeo.
[/media]

[Glenn Black]

Re: Growth is not possible

Any %/yr increase is exponential growth, and by definition, is not sustainable. Sooner or later, we are doomed by growth.

[ASH]

Re: Growth is not possible

Any %/yr increase is exponential growth, and by definition, is not sustainable. Sooner or later, we are doomed by growth.

We're not going to be around forever, most likely. Let's say the sun burns out in 5 billion years. If the annual growth rate was 1.38E-8%, there would only be a doubling by the "end of the earth". This is a pedantic point, because typical annual growth rates quoted for economies are eight orders of magnitude larger. However, there are "sustainable" exponential growth rates... it's just that they are very very small.

[flintlock]

Re: Growth is not possible

Ideas can grow exponentially. Wheat can't. Economies based on ideas can grow exponentially. Economies based on wheat can't. A man who has made his fortune in a world of ideas doesn't understand the difference. The problem is that the men we have chosen to run our economy come exclusively from a world of ideas.

Excellent thought.

[Rajiv]

Bill Gates Warns Of Dystopian Future

Bill Gates Warns Of Dystopian Future

The Microsoft chairman's vision conjures images of a world where Mad Max would feel at home.

By Paul McDougall
InformationWeek
January 26, 2010 10:03 AM

Bill Gates said he fears Earth might become a post-industrial wasteland plagued by heat, chronic food and energy shortages, and rampant disease unless governments and private organizations invest more time and money solving what the Microsoft chairman believes are the world's most pressing problems.

"If we project what the world will be like 10 years from now without innovation in health, education, energy, or food, the picture is quite bleak," said Gates, in his annual letter from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, published earlier this week.

"Health costs for the rich will escalate, forcing tough trade-offs and keeping the poor stuck in the bad situation they are in today," Gates wrote. The damage won't be limited to the Third World, Gates said.

"In the United States, rising education costs will mean that fewer people will be able to get a great college education and the public K-12 system will still be doing a poor job for the underprivileged," he said.

Gates added that stalled innovation could ultimately lead to a hotter planet where food and energy are in short supply.

"We will have to increase the price of energy to reduce consumption, and the poor will suffer from both this higher cost and the effects of climate change. In food we will have big shortages because we won't have enough land to feed the world's growing population and supports its richer diet," said Gates.

But Gates said the all this bleakness can be avoided if enough money is spent developing technological and social innovations that add efficiency to agriculture, medicine, education, and other key fields.

"Rich governments need to spend more on research and development," said Gates.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is doing its part, Gates said, by funding research into vaccines, fertilizers, educational reform, and other key areas.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Growth is not possible

Ideas can grow exponentially. Wheat can't. Economies based on ideas can grow exponentially. Economies based on wheat can't. A man who has made his fortune in a world of ideas doesn't understand the difference. The problem is that the men we have chosen to run our economy come exclusively from a world of ideas.

Take that knowledge economy! ;)

Seriously, though how long can one get away with over-complicating

FV = PV (1+i/f)^(n f) ?

And how much of someone's productive life can be spend going into debt on education?

This is not to say that I find education a bad thing, but I do often think that there used to
be apprenticeships for many of the 'trade' undergraduate majors that now offer
ubiquitous degrees in this country.

....make spreadsheets....cc everyone.....get $....

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: Growth is not possible

WE constantly make the mistake of confusing the virtual with the real. There is progress in networking the world. You can't look a brain and just observer that it is just a bunch of fat without missing the power of the brain.

I should point out, the fat is part of cholesterol. Yes folks, your brain is mostly cholesterol and water.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Growth is not possible

I can see, at a minimum, one-thousand years of oil left to develop on this planet.

I can see water resources that boggle my mind, even in supposedly water-depleted areas like California. Even Egypt has vast fresh-water development potential that is going-to-waste.

The one rub is over-population. The Earth has to control population growth. And this can be done humanely through public education, emancipation of women, contraception, and family-planning.

If the world can reduce its population, we are going to BOOM.

Finally, I view religion, especially mono-theistic religion, as a threat to humanity.... A look at the Middle East now will make it clear why religion is a threat to the future of mankind.