Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

[mooncliff]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

After the Arab Oil Embargo (1973 - 1974) US was on its way to get off of oil. This however was slowly was killed off. WHAT A MISTAKE THAT WAS !!!!!!

Had the work (which did start at many universities) continued we would have had a much much more relaxed world and a happier country :rolleyes:

Yes, that makes me so sad. We should have done something about it slowly over the years so that we did not become so dependent on imported energy. We squandered what resources we had, and then we just couldn't be bothered to up fuel efficiency, insulate houses, work on public transportation that takes decades to put in place, and not let the sprawl become ridiculous.

We put the solar water heaters up in the 80s after the horrible oil shocks and inflation of the 70s, and they have been working these 30 years... a neighbor has the same solar water heater, and theirs is still working after 40 years. New evacuated tube models have solved the freezing problem, but I would research carefully and go with long established companies to increase likelihood of a long service life. There are many details of construction that matter, particularly trying to keep different types of metal from contacting each other because whenever they get wet, it sets up a galvanic charge (like a very weak battery) that makes the metal corrode faster. The 80s is when I started keeping developments in the back of my mind so that I could adopt at the right time when the technology had matured and the price had come down.
Solar water heaters matured many years ago.
Elastomeric roofs matured and had a lot of testing data in the last decade, so adopted that in 2005.
Photovoltaics are maturing now, so it will be good in sunny areas to adopt in the next few years.
LEDs are maturing now (but some are still really terrible, so look at a display where you can actually see them in operation), so try one out and learn all the issues of light color, lumen output, service life, etc. Even though they are expensive, the cost should drop to about $10 in the next couple of years. Over 10 years, an incandescent will use about $1,000 of electricity, whereas an LED will use about $100 (that would be $900 in your pocket; about $1,800 you did not have to earn and pay taxes on in order to have the $900). You only need to replace the lights you leave on all the time; the other lights don't matter much. I have a 7 watt Toshiba LED bulb (not yet available in the US) over my kitchen sink, and the light is warm and bright. When I find one that I like in the US, I am going to buy a case of them for the next family party and give everyone a bulb so that they can see what they are like.
One of things I try to do is make the house a kind of demonstration model. Friends and neighbors see it and then start to do the same, so in the end, a fairly small outlay on my part is multiplied and ripples outward.
Energy use for TVs is about to drop with improvements in LED backlighting or with ultimate transition to individually addressable microLEDs. Then will trash the cathode ray tube TV we have.
Panasonic-Sanyo seem to be working on a battery unit about the size of a small refrigerator for residential use that will store about one week's worth of electricity. When that matures, I will get one and go offgrid using the photovoltaics.
Saving up the cash and waiting for a technology to mature and drop in price to a reasonable level makes all the difference, and if get the timing right, the cost is zero... no, you actually make money doing nothing by plugging another one of the holes in the bottom of the tub through which money is dribbling away...

[GRG55]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

After the Arab Oil Embargo (1973 - 1974) US was on its way to get off of oil. This however was slowly was killed off. WHAT A MISTAKE THAT WAS !!!!!!

It wasn't "killed off".

Improvements such as building code changes regarding insulation and improvements in appliance energy consumption are still with us. So are the significant improvements in fuel efficiency in automobile engines.

Unfortunately, as Jeff Rubin is fond of pointing out, the houses we live in today use half the energy per sq. ft. of our parents houses, but are three times the size, so no net energy savings. On a per capita basis it's even worse since the average family size living in these large houses [with their appliance-stuffed kitchens and multiple bathrooms] has declined steadily.

And those more efficient auto engines are moving vehicles that are bigger and heavier than they were in the mid-80s...forget about SUVs, just look at how much "economy" cars like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord have grown in size and weight since they were first introduced.

Had the work (which did start at many universities) continued we would have had a much much more relaxed world and a happier country :rolleyes:

I don't understand where you get the idea that "the work" ever stopped. Today's advances that are being introduced into the market, and I include everything from ultra-high efficiency lighting to pebble bed nuclear reactors, are the product of R&D over past decades, not just the last year or so [this past Christmas for example I saw lots of adverts for LED light strings with bulbs that looked like the old traditional series-wired lights of my youth - Boomer nostalgia marketing at its finest, eh...].

Yes the market incentives to "do more" and for consumers to take up these products were limited by 15 years of declining petroleum prices [from 1986 to 2001] but most of the habits acquired during the 1970's "energy shortage", including the recycling of aluminum cans and other energy intensive products, are still with us.

[mooncliff]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

It wasn't "killed off".

Improvements such as building code changes regarding insulation and improvements in appliance energy consumption are still with us. So are the significant improvements in fuel efficiency in automobile engines.

Unfortunately, as Jeff Rubin is fond of pointing out, the houses we live in today use half the energy per sq. ft. of our parents houses, but are three times the size, so no net energy savings. On a per capita basis it's even worse since the average family size living in these large houses [with their appliance-stuffed kitchens and multiple bathrooms] has declined steadily.

And those more efficient auto engines are moving vehicles that are bigger and heavier than they were in the mid-80s...forget about SUVs, just look at how much "economy" cars like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord have grown in size and weight since they were first introduced.



I don't understand where you get the idea that "the work" ever stopped. Today's advances that are being introduced into the market, and I include everything from ultra-high efficiency lighting to pebble bed nuclear reactors, are the product of R&D over past decades, not just the last year or so [this past Christmas for example I saw lots of adverts for LED light strings with bulbs that looked like the old traditional series-wired lights of my youth - Boomer nostalgia marketing at its finest, eh...].

Yes the market incentives to "do more" and for consumers to take up these products were limited by 15 years of declining petroleum prices [from 1986 to 2001] but most of the habits acquired during the 1970's "energy shortage", including the recycling of aluminum cans and other energy intensive products, are still with us.

"I don't understand where you get the idea that "the work" ever stopped. "
Yes, the efficiency improvements were made and have continued, but Reagan ripping the solar panels off the White House roof might have left one with that impression.
I think the US Department of Energy forecast is that, for example, Japan will cut its oil use by 20% by 2020, while the US use will stay about the same. Of course these countries are not comparable because of differing demographics, urban planning, etc. However, the graph below shows that a lot more could have been done, I think. Basically, if we now find ourselves 60% dependent on imported energy, we should have done whatever it took to cut our energy consumption by 60%, but of course there are many other factors at play.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:En...versus_GDP.png

[GRG55]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

...Basically, if we now find ourselves 60% dependent on imported energy, we should have done whatever it took to cut our energy consumption by 60%...

Why?

Perhaps 60% is too high a dependence, but what exactly is the problem with importing some oil from places that can find, develop and produce the stuff cheaper than in North America? ;)

Let's understand that energy in and of itself is not in short supply. All we are doing is making trade offs between the costs of different forms of it...and increasingly those costs are not just finding, developing, generating, mining, transmitting or converting the energy but also the climate/carbon related costs which were never factored into the equation before. So be it. That still doesn't make it "wrong" to use it.

I've seen the chart you posted in many forms many times. As a Canadian I don't want to live like they do in Brazil...



or India...



or even Japan...



And I don't see what is so "virtuous" about those societies and what is so damning about ours...we are no better or worse than they, just different. Different in climate, distances between major city centers, and in the make up of our economies.

[shiny!]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

Thank you for all this information.

We put the solar water heaters up in the 80s after the horrible oil shocks and inflation of the 70s, and they have been working these 30 years... a neighbor has the same solar water heater, and theirs is still working after 40 years. New evacuated tube models have solved the freezing problem, but I would research carefully and go with long established companies to increase likelihood of a long service life. There are many details of construction that matter, particularly trying to keep different types of metal from contacting each other because whenever they get wet, it sets up a galvanic charge (like a very weak battery) that makes the metal corrode faster. The 80s is when I started keeping developments in the back of my mind so that I could adopt at the right time when the technology had matured and the price had come down.
Solar water heaters matured many years ago.
Elastomeric roofs matured and had a lot of testing data in the last decade, so adopted that in 2005.
Photovoltaics are maturing now, so it will be good in sunny areas to adopt in the next few years.
LEDs are maturing now (but some are still really terrible, so look at a display where you can actually see them in operation), so try one out and learn all the issues of light color, lumen output, service life, etc. Even though they are expensive, the cost should drop to about $10 in the next couple of years. Over 10 years, an incandescent will use about $1,000 of electricity, whereas an LED will use about $100 (that would be $900 in your pocket; about $1,800 you did not have to earn and pay taxes on in order to have the $900). You only need to replace the lights you leave on all the time; the other lights don't matter much. I have a 7 watt Toshiba LED bulb (not yet available in the US) over my kitchen sink, and the light is warm and bright. When I find one that I like in the US, I am going to buy a case of them for the next family party and give everyone a bulb so that they can see what they are like.
One of things I try to do is make the house a kind of demonstration model. Friends and neighbors see it and then start to do the same, so in the end, a fairly small outlay on my part is multiplied and ripples outward.
Energy use for TVs is about to drop with improvements in LED backlighting or with ultimate transition to individually addressable microLEDs. Then will trash the cathode ray tube TV we have.
Panasonic-Sanyo seem to be working on a battery unit about the size of a small refrigerator for residential use that will store about one week's worth of electricity. When that matures, I will get one and go offgrid using the photovoltaics.
Saving up the cash and waiting for a technology to mature and drop in price to a reasonable level makes all the difference, and if get the timing right, the cost is zero... no, you actually make money doing nothing by plugging another one of the holes in the bottom of the tub through which money is dribbling away...

[mesyn191]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

We also have not built a nuclear reactor in California in decades. We also have not built any new hydro-electric dams. To this day, the entire Eel River is simply dumped into the sea for salmon habitat. Radical environmentalists still dictate their no-growth (anti-people) agenda in the state's politics.

More hydro would be nice, same for nuclear, the NIMBY's are really screwing themselves and the rest of us along with them on this.

Oil is just dripping out of the sand, waiting to be pumped, on the beaches of Southern California, and yet the state's oil production is in decline..... It boggles my mind!

The volume of expected oil there is pissant in the grand scheme of things and would take years to start extracting to boot. Better to put that money/effort/time towards the nukes or hydro. R&D towards more renewable energy would be worthwhile to IMO (PVC's or algae oil would be great to have...), it'd certainly create some jobs.

A water-shortage, and a river the size of the Mississippi at Minneapolis is simply allowed to flow-freely into the sea in north-west California. No-one dares to speak-up against this collossal waste of water.

They could damn the river up totally to get more water and it wouldn't matter in the long run, there are really to many goddamn people in CA and far to little is being done to preserve the water they've got. The state really needs to lose a few million people at a minimum to ensure the long term water supply. It is after all a desert and in the end nature will win out there.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

More hydro would be nice, same for nuclear, the NIMBY's are really screwing themselves and the rest of us along with them on this.


The volume of expected oil there is pissant in the grand scheme of things and would take years to start extracting to boot. Better to put that money/effort/time towards the nukes or hydro. R&D towards more renewable energy would be worthwhile to IMO (PVC's or algae oil would be great to have...), it'd certainly create some jobs.


They could damn the river up totally to get more water and it wouldn't matter in the long run, there are really to many goddamn people in CA and far to little is being done to preserve the water they've got. The state really needs to lose a few million people at a minimum to ensure the long term water supply. It is after all a desert and in the end nature will win out there.

Agreed, we have to humanely solve the over-population problem on this planet. Family planning, contraception, the emancipation of women, and public education are the best approach. But where I dis-agree with the radical-environmentalists is that mankind also has to take control of the environment and raise the standard-of-living of humanity. On this latter point, I am at di-poles with the radical environmentalists to-day..... (Piss on salmon habitat.)

[Rajiv]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

Update to the last chart below - which brings me to another topic



There are articles that seem to suggest that the current recession was caused by peak oil - will link three - latest first.

Oil Caused Recession, Not Wall Street

This essay brings a new perspective on the subject of the article oil-price.net titled "Did High Oil Prices cause the Financial Crash?" which we published in November 2009.

There is a lot of oil about. A lot left in the ground and a lot being produced. Amidst the contention, it is easy to overlook that Peak Oil is called Peak Oil because this is when we will never be more awash in the black stuff.

The abundant availability of oil buoys skepticism.

"What oil shortage?", doubters ask, with some justification.

Peak Oil is in part a symbolic marker. Like reaching the year 2000, the Queen passing her 50th jubilee or getting half way through a glass of beer. Notable, and in the case of the beer regrettable. However, Peak Oil will likely pass without undue trouble.

What matters are problems that will go along with the globe's production of oil maxing-out. The most important of these is likely to be the rising level of volatility in the price of oil.

In December 2009, The Oil Drum published an essay in which I asked the question - Was volatility in the price of oil a cause of the financial crisis? .

The crux of the essay is a chart (see below) showing that during the 2000s oil price volatility rose and fell over time in a distinct series of spikes.

This new volatility signature appeared to be unprecedented, but there was an added surprise in store. Further snooping led to the discovery that each spike in the oil series was matched by transient instabilities in other economic indexes, including inflation rate and investment risk.

The relationships shown in the essay were correlative. Care thus has to be taken since correlation in time does not prove causation. Bearing this in mind, the hypothesis posed was that these recurring spikes of volatility in oil price destabilized the investment environment. This destabilization was suggested to have led to a run on the shadow banking system.




A new signature of spiking volatility in oil price formed during the 2000s. The first spike in the series topped out in 2002. The 3rd spike coincides with Hurricane Katrina. The largest corresponds to the oil shock of 2008, when oil reached about $140 a barrel.

As has been noted by Paul Krugman and others, the collapse of the shadow banking system was the falling domino that brought the financial markets crashing down.

The second two articles by Gail Tverberg
Where we are headed: Peak oil and the financial crisis

Nearly all of the economic analyses we see today have as their basic premise a view that the current financial crisis is a temporary aberration. We will have a V or U shaped recovery, especially if enough stimulus is applied, and the economy will soon be back to Business as Usual.

I believe this assumption is basically incorrect. The current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil. There may be oscillations in the economic situation, but generally, we can't expect things to get much better. In fact, there is a very distinct possibility that things may get very much worse in the next few years.

In this post, I will put together some of the pieces I see. This post is based on a presentation, so includes more than the usual amount of graphics. The post repeats many things I have said before, but I wanted to bring more of the pieces together into more of an overview article. This is a link to a PDF version of the presentation. This is a link to the Powerpoint version.


Our One-Way Economy



Our economy is very much a one way economy--because of its heavy reliance on debt, it needs to grow.

It is easy to overlook the importance of debt. Most businesses would not be able to build new factories without debt. Businesses would tend to be much smaller than they are today without debt. International trade would be much more difficult without debt. Even at a personal level, debt is very important. How many citizens would be able to purchase homes without a mortgage, or go to college without a student loan?

In order for our debt-based system to work as planned, the economy needs to grow. Otherwise, there are way too many defaults.
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The other article by Gail
"Peak Oil" or "Limits to Growth"

There is a good deal of evidence that we are now a little past "peak oil". Many of us find it doesn't feel quite like we had imagined.

A lot of us had expected that peak oil would be basically a liquids fuels crisis, caused by geological limits. We expected that the solutions of the Department of Energy's Hirsch Report would be sufficient to forestall a crisis, especially if we had started 20 years ago, instead of now. These solutions included things like more oil from tar sands, improving automobile efficiency, and electrification of transport.

Now, when we seem to be at peak oil, we find the current situation feels a lot more like a "box" caused by limits to growth, rather than a liquid fuels crisis. The limits are of many forms--not just geological limits relating to oil--but other resource limits as well, such as fresh water, and concerns about climate change and the environment. The financial system is even behaving strangely.

The fact that the financial system is also in distress is a surprise to many people. There is good theoretical reason to expect that once growth in underlying resources slows, a financial system based on compound growth will run into difficulty. This was predicted by M. King Hubbert and many others. The connection is not easy to see, though, and it is understandable that many would believe that the financial system would have had problems, even apart from limits to growth.

The fact that so many limits are involved makes it difficult to substitute one resource, such as biofuels, for another, such as petroleum products.
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[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

I continue to look at this in part through the eyes of my son, a young man. When I was a bright young man in America, many decades ago, the prospects and opportunities seemed boundless. Now the future looks rather more dim. Your oildrum reports are a good read, Rajiv. They are a bit depressing however.

I wonder what advice I might give my son. He's in his early twenties and a bit lost at this point. Nothing seems worth focusing on long enough to get some traction. I'm afraid that my frequent reports to him on how messed up things are don't help. What challenges and excites me discourages him.

Exact details don't matter. I suspect others are in this situation themselves or know those who are.

This peak cheap oil, or as I posted in some other thread a couple days ago, peak net oil (peak in the amount of energy recovered, net of the energy spent to get it) seems to be dragging the human economy through a midlife crisis (or is it a terminal illness :eek:?)

[jtabeb]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

I continue to look at this in part through the eyes of my son, a young man. When I was a bright young man in America, many decades ago, the prospects and opportunities seemed boundless. Now the future looks rather more dim. Your oildrum reports are a good read, Rajiv. They are a bit depressing however.

I wonder what advice I might give my son. He's in his early twenties and a bit lost at this point. Nothing seems worth focusing on long enough to get some traction. I'm afraid that my frequent reports to him on how messed up things are don't help. What challenges and excites me discourages him.

Exact details don't matter. I suspect others are in this situation themselves or know those who are.

This peak cheap oil, or as I posted in some other thread a couple days ago, peak net oil (peak in the amount of energy recovered, net of the energy spent to get it) seems to be dragging the human economy through a midlife crisis (or is it a terminal illness :eek:?)

Cow I was quite discouraged too for a while. (It's hard not to be when you think you are facing and intractable problem. In fact, it can be downright depressing).

The only problem is, it's not intractable, remember.

Just go tell you son, there is this crazy guy on Itulip who's got the whole Peak Oil thing figured out.

Like I said, Short term, yes, shitty with a chance of diarrhea (Peak oil is here, and it's going to hurt).

5-7 years down the road though, we, God willing, will be on our way to an alternative transportation fuel stock (not petroleum based).

You do the math and look at viable alternatives (electrification is not viable, not on the scale we need due to material limits), and there is a "WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!" solution out there.

Reality is, yeah, We are getting to the end of our time with Cheap, readily available oil. I think the best thing you could do is point him in the direction of viable alternatives as having a very bright future for the purposes of education, employment, and business.

This transition is Just Starting. You could look at this in two ways.

It's EITHER very depressing (which it is, frankly, until we really get the ball rolling on this), OR it's pretty damn Exciting and potentially lucrative to be getting in on the ground floor. (Think about being one of the first hundred employee's or investors in say, Apple, Intel, or Microsoft back in the early 80's.

It's here, and that sucks. We will have to change. That doesn't mean our lives have to suck or that our standards of living will fall. Tell your son (from me) that if he can PROVIDE SOLUTIONS in this crisis, financial rewards BEYOND the DREAMS of AVARICE await. (That's PRETTY DAMN EXCITING, to me at least).

Best part, the solutions ARE ALREADY HERE, the technology has already been discovered, we just have to build the production (AND, with my way, WE get to utilize our existing infrastructure and we DON'T have to change consumer behavior).

People will still buy cars, go to the gas station, and drive on roads. It's just that it will be a algae based bio diesel powered car that we literally will "grow" the fuel for. (And yes, you still can go to the gas station to get your biodiesel).

Pain ahead, YES. But also PROFIT and OPPORTUNITY!
(Be real about objective reality with your son, but MAKE SURE he knows that there are ways he can do very VERY well).

"Things are getting better every day" and "Keep moving forward" are two truisms, that I live by. (And I would be mortally depressed if they were not true).

Things are bad, and going to get worse, economically speaking. That Means you have to BE SELECTIVE about what you are going to do. (If he selects correctly, I think he will have VERY rewarding opportunities).

Cow, it's there. We are 5-10 years away, BUT IT'S THERE.

Don't forget that (and DON'T forget to tell your son!)

"Bioengineering" will be big, me thinks.

From Oregon State Univeristy

http://www.bioe.oregonstate.edu/courses.htm

Biological Engineering
Number	Name	Cr	Qtr	Freq
BEE 529	Biosystems Modeling Techniques	3	W	A
BEE 572	Intro to Process Engineering	4	W	A
BEE 573	Intro to Process Engineering Design	4	Sp	A
BEE 485	Metabolic Systems Engineering	3	Sp	B
BEE 568	Bioremediation Engineering	3	F	A
BEE 575	Introduction to Bioenergy Systems	3	Sp	A
BEE 580	Introduction to Bioproduct Engineering	3	F	A
BEE 690	Adv Bioproduct Systems Feedstocks	1	F	B
BEE 691	Advanced Bioproduct Systems - Microbial Fuel Cells	2	F	B
BEE 693	Adv Bioprod Systems Ethanol Production	2	W	B

V/R

JT

[Rajiv]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

I apologize for being a bit of a "downer." However, if I were young, I would not necessarily view it as such. Your question takes me back to my early 20's, when one of my mentors introduced us to Joseph Campbell, and the "Hero's Journey." It would be well worth your son's time to peruse that. An interview with Joseph Campbell on the Hero's Journey is below

The Power of Myth - The Hero's Adventure from John Allen Bell on Vimeo.

So! Who is a hero? According to Campbell

The usual hero is someone:

• from whom something has been taken
• who feels something is lacking from the normal experiences available or permitted to the members of his society

The Hero’s Journey/Adventure: The Call to Adventure: Some heroes set out responsibly and intentionally to perform the deed prescribed by the journey. Other heroes are thrown into the adventure. There are still other heroes who initially refuse the call to adventure, but eventually change their minds (if they didn't, there wouldn't be a story). No matter why the journey was undertaken, the hero is always prepared for the trials he faces. The hero takes off on a series of adventures beyond the ordinary, either to recover what has been lost or to discover some life-giving idea/potion/remedy. The journey is a cycle of going and returning. The hero must move beyond known, conventional safety in order to undertake this journey. Supernatural Aid: Although the hero is ultimately the one who must face the challenges, he/she generally does not do so alone. In most stories, the hero will have a guide, someone who is wise in the ways of the world, and someone who will offer the hero guidance and wisdom as he/she progresses through the journey. In addition to the guide, the hero will often have some kind of a talisman, some symbolic item that offers power or strength to the hero. Most heroes also have companions on their journey. The companions can serve a variety of functions. They may offer balance for the hero, they may help the hero in battle, they may help the hero learn valuable lessons. Crossing the Threshold: Early on in the journey, the hero will leave the world he/she has always known. The hero will leave what is familiar and venture into the unknown. As the hero leaves his/her familiar world, the hero will cross a threshold. Sometimes this is simply symbolic, but other times there will be some kind of physical barrier that the hero must get through. Threshold Guardians are those who would prevent those who are not ready for the journey from beginning. They may try to prevent the hero from leaving, or they may try to prevent the hero from entering into the new realm. Whatever side they are on, they will not let anyone pass who is not up to the task at hand, The Initiation: The hero must prove to be worthy of hero status, and to prove this the hero will face a series of challenges or trials while on the journey. The trials fall into two main categories. Two types of hero deeds: 1. The Physical Deed: The hero performs a courageous act in battle or saves lives. 2. The Spiritual Deed: The hero learns to experience the supernormal range of human spiritual life and then comes back with a message. The trials the hero faces are designed to see if the intending hero should really be a hero. Is he really a match for the task? Can he overcome the dangers? Does he have the courage, the knowledge, the capacity to enable him to serve? In addition, the hero learns something about his own character through his adventures. There are several different challenges the hero might face: Brother Battle: Many heroes find themselves locked in battle, either physical or psychological with someone who is a "brother" whether a blood relation or a symbolic brother. Dragon Battle: Some heroes will battle literal dragons guarding their treasure, but other heroes will battle their inner dragons, the doubts and fears they have about their own ability. Whether literal or figurative, the dragons must be slain in order for the hero to complete the journey. Abduction / Sea Journey / Night Journey: Often in the hero's journey, either the hero or someone close to the hero will be abducted and taken away. As the hero is transported elsewhere, or as the hero chases after the captors, the journey may take the hero over the sea or on a long night journey. Even if there is no abduction involved, most hero's are traveling great distances, so a sea journey or night journey is not uncommon. Entering the Belly of the Whale: This is a reference to the story of Jonah and the Whale. When the hero is drawn deep into the journey and must face his/her greatest fear or the greatest evil, the hero is in the belly of the whale. For some heroes, they are literally in the belly of the whale, like Pinocchio, but for most this is symbolic. Meeting with the Goddess: Many heroes will meet a woman of great power while on the journey. The Goddess may offer the hero wisdom, or she may offer a supernatural aid that will assist the hero has he/she faces the greatest challenges on the journey. Sacred Marriage: The hero will often have a special connection with one character in the story, and this connection can serve as a motivation to the hero to continue the journey when all else seems hopeless. Sometimes the sacred marriage is literally a marriage, but often it is a symbolic union of two souls. Ritual Death or Dismemberment: In order for the hero to be transformed, he/she must give up his/her old life. Many times this is done through a symbolic death. In other stories, the hero will lose a limb, which will signify the loss of the old self. Atonement with Father: Many hero's have been separated from their fathers or do not know their fathers. The "father quest" is one motivation for a hero to begin the journey. One easy way to remember "atonement" is to think "at one," when the hero is "at one" with the father or the father figure. This often comes at the end of the hero's journey and is the stepping stone that helps the hero take his/her rightful place as leader in the society. Apotheosis: This literally means the elevation of a person to the rank of a god or the glorification of a person as an ideal. After completing the difficult challenges, the hero is idealized or worshipped in some way. Ultimate Boon or Magic Elixir: When the hero set out on the journey, it was because there was some problem. The Ultimate Boon or Magic Elixir is the solution to the problem. The hero is able, through brave deeds to procure this magic remedy and to solve the problem. The Return: The hero's journey is a cycle that include a going and a return. However, the return is not always each. There still may be some challenges. Refusal of Return: Sometimes the hero is content in the new world and does not want return to the old world. However, if the hero is to reach his/her destiny and take his/her place as leader, there must be a return. Rescue from Without: As the hero tries to return the hero may find him/herself in a difficult situation that looks like the end of the hero's quest. Just when things look bleak, someone come to rescue the hero so he/she can finish the journey. Magic Flight / Pursuit: Sometimes the hero wants to return home, but there are forces that would like to prevent him/her from doing that. Crossing the Return Threshold: While usually not as involved as crossing the initial threshold, the hero must still return to the old familiar world. Master of Two Worlds: As the hero completes the challenges, the hero's bravery is noted by those around. As a result, the hero is often looked up to in the new world as well as in the new world. There are times when the hero returns to the old world and his/her message is unheard (especially if it is not what the society was expecting) or the achievements unrecognized. In this case, the hero may die or be killed, or sometimes returns to the other world. Freedom to Live: If the hero is successful on the journey, and if the hero is accepted back into the old world, the hero will have the freedom to live. Such heroes are generally great leaders of their people. You can chart out how the movie you are working with fits the Hero's Journey Model: Hero's Journey Chart You can read more about the Hero's Journey in the Commemorative Edition of The Hero with a Thousand Faces by Joseph Campbell.

Also came across this good article on the recently released Movie " Avatar" (Now banned in China!)

Avatar: A Multi-Dimensional Pop Parable for Ascension

"When I woke up this morning after watching Avatar for the first time yesterday, the world seemed... gray. It was like my whole life, everything I've done and worked for, lost its meaning," Hill wrote on the forum. "It just seems so... meaningless. I still don't really see any reason to keep... doing things at all. I live in a dying world." -- Audiences Experience 'Avatar' Blues

"In the New Age we break free of centuries of false doctrines, destructive indoctrinations, absurd ideas, and children's stories about God, education, medicine, and love. The corrupt foundations of false society crumble. This time of crises is not the signal of the end of the world. What comes is not the end, but the beginning. The dream humanity has lived for centuries ends and we awaken to a bright new day, a bright new way." -- Age of Aquarius, Age of Holy Breath

A Malleable Pop Parable

In the weeks after seeing Avatar, I got a little obsessed -- I scoured the web for reviews and ardently scrolled through long forum discussions, fascinated with what people were seeing in this movie, how it was resonating with the "masses" and within my communities. What I found, a myriad of impassioned interpretations, confirmed my impression that although this is, on one level, just a predictable Hollywood blockbuster about sexy aliens and explosions, it's also a valuable pop parable inspiring deep dialogue.

People are getting different things out of this film -- in addition to the obvious environmentalist and anti-imperialist messages, the blogosphere is blowin' up with all kinds of good stuff! From spiritual/religious interpretations seeing it as an impetus for interfaith unity, an illustration of the notion that "everything is god", a synthesis of paganism & christianity, and a surreally accurate depiction of the ayahuasca experience, socio-political interpretations construing it as everything from a white guilt fantasy about race, to a harbinger of ET Disclosure, to an illustration of the promise of permaculture combined with a genuine free market economy, to more classically-minded viewers like this one, who has taken the time to map out the entire film as it correlates to the stages of The Hero's Journey, people are seeing their own world-views reflected in this film, finding its bright colors and simple story a useful frame to help convey their pet issue or philosophy. James Cameron says he just wanted to make "something that has this spoonful of sugar of all the action and the adventure and all that" that would thrill fans, but also "maybe in the enjoying of it makes you think a little bit about the way you interact with nature and your fellow man."

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The Hero's Journey in Avatar

The Hero's Journey, or monomyth, structure was first articulated by Joseph Campbell, who posited it as the backbone of all mythological stories, like the stories of Jesus and Buddha. George Lucas wrote Star Wars as a conscious exercise in creating a Hero's Journey myth that would speak to modern people. The Hero's Journey can be broken down with different subtle variations, but the fundamental stages are as follows:

- Ordinary World
- Call to Adventure
- Refusal of the Call
- Meeting with the Mentor
- Crossing the First Threshold
- Tests, Allies, Enemies
- Rethinking Approach
- Ordeal
- Reward
- The Road Back
- Resurrection Hero
- Return with Elixir

The Hero's Journey is the fundamental story of transformation, the path to mastery, victory, enlightenment -- and it's generally walked by an individualist, male hero. Most criticism I've found of Avatar relating to the heroic story revolves around disappointment with the identity politics implications of the regurgitated "white male hero" saving the helpless indigenous/native/female/minority. Agreed -- that's played out. But I don't see it as that simple. When we critically create the distinction between an "external" and "internal" heroic journey, it's easy to see the "internal" heroic journey in Avatar as the process of Ascension, enacted by not just one hero, but three: Jake, Neytiri, and the Collective Alliance with Eywah. My analysis of the steps of the Hero's Journey as they correlate to the stages of Ascension, and as they are experienced by our heroes Jake, Neytiri, and the Collective, is presented here.

The Simple Human Hero

Powerless and vulnerable in a hostile place, Jake Sully cowers behind his weapon in his first jaunt through Pandora. He can't read his environment -- doesn't know which animals are dangerous, which aren't, how to hold his ground and defend his territory, or how to kill with grace. The forest is experienced as separate from himself, nature as something to be studied; he lacks intuitive understanding of his environment or his effect within it -- he pokes plants, provokes animals, and makes a bunch of noise, getting himself corned by several packs of scary wild things.

Although he is "stupid... like a baby," Jake possess the qualities of a hero in the making: unlike his colleagues, he is not overly intellectual -- he comes with beginner's mind, natural courageousness and curiosity, a hunger born of desperation, and most importantly (according to Neytiri) a strong heart, strength of spirit. She would have missed it were she not so tuned in to source -- but because she is aware, open, receptive, she sees and understands the meaning of the sign from Eywah, when, arms extended outward in a Christ-like power pose, Jake is illuminated by hundreds of the orb-like creatures that seem half dandelion, half jellyfish, flocking to him like fireflies defining his etheric body, and symbolically signifying to Neytiri that he is special, worth saving.

While Jake is already at stages 4&5 of his external heroic journey
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[Rajiv]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

You and I are on the same page there JT -- but there are bigger and wider issues to consider as well.

[jtabeb]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

You and I are on the same page there JT -- but there are bigger and wider issues to consider as well.

Thankfully, those "other issues" tend to become overcome by events during a real crisis. Thank God we have a good crisis to crystallize our thinking.


(Crap! Gotta stop talking like Rahm E.)

[Kadriana]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

I continue to look at this in part through the eyes of my son, a young man. When I was a bright young man in America, many decades ago, the prospects and opportunities seemed boundless. Now the future looks rather more dim. Your oildrum reports are a good read, Rajiv. They are a bit depressing however.

I wonder what advice I might give my son. He's in his early twenties and a bit lost at this point. Nothing seems worth focusing on long enough to get some traction. I'm afraid that my frequent reports to him on how messed up things are don't help. What challenges and excites me discourages him.

Exact details don't matter. I suspect others are in this situation themselves or know those who are.

This peak cheap oil, or as I posted in some other thread a couple days ago, peak net oil (peak in the amount of energy recovered, net of the energy spent to get it) seems to be dragging the human economy through a midlife crisis (or is it a terminal illness :eek:?)

I'm probably a bit optimistic for this group sometimes but I think since the financial crisis has started, my quality of life has gotten better. I've rediscovered my love of gardening. I've learned to love hand me downs, especially for my two toddlers, even though I could afford new clothes. I've gotten quite good at getting things for free or really cheap at the store. I have a whole new network of friends that I barter with. I have traded my homemade grape jelly for fresh fruit, homemade salsa and organic eggs. Most importantly, it's brought my husband and I even closer together. We have backup plans for the backup plans in case he ever lost his job. I know I'm married to a man who would do anything he had to to provide for his family even if that meant digging ditches and he knows he's married to a woman that loves him for him, not his paycheck.

[GRG55]

Re: Top 10 oil fields (Cantarell kaput)

...I wonder what advice I might give my son. He's in his early twenties and a bit lost at this point. Nothing seems worth focusing on long enough to get some traction. I'm afraid that my frequent reports to him on how messed up things are don't help. What challenges and excites me discourages him...

For me change brings opportunity with a big "O". For many it's hard to see opportunities, because during times of rapid change in our lives we as humans naturally tend to focus more on the immediate, certain and often tangible "loss" instead of the future, uncertain and as-yet-intangible "gain" that may come.


I would suggest that your tell your son that:

• the best investments he will ever make will be in himself;
• the second best investments he will ever make will be in his relationships with his family, friends, partners;
• he should think and act like a citizen of the world, not of the USA...the opportunity set worldwide is massively larger than anything available in one city, State or country;
• a deep curiosity about everything going on around oneself can be invaluable;
• one should try to avoid getting too caught up in personal long term plans and goals...some of that is necessary, but a great deal of what happens in our lives, more than we generally care to admit, is due to "luck", "fate", "serendipity" [call it what you will]. Too much adherence to rigid goals, targets, plans shuts the door to imagining, seeing and acting on opportunities that "don't fit". I wish I had learned this lesson earlier in life.
• We're all different. For some the process and experience of doing anything in life is the primary satisfier, for others it's getting the ball across the goal line...it helps to know which.

Hope there's something useful in the above...