Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

[jk]

Re: Broken China?

FRED!??! could you turn off autoplay on the david stockman interview above. please.

[touchring]

Re: Broken China?

I think this is part of the shift we are seeing. It's a good time to invest in environmental companies or start one in China.

If you'll be going to China and take the high speed train, it's good to book over the Internet as morning train tickets are usually sold out the day before. When I was there, many people couldn't get tickets at the station.

It is possible to check seat availability on booking sites - as shown on this link, G-train tickets from Beijing to Shanghai are sold out till about 3pm - http://www.travelchinaguide.com/chin...03%2F13%2F2015

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

in another 3 months, this thread will celebrate its 5th anniversary. it's amazing how long these things can go on.

A long time indeed. But not forever.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q...llNnVJOFk/view

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=C2SStFt-k_A

[touchring]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

A long time indeed. But not forever.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q...llNnVJOFk/view

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=C2SStFt-k_A

Certainly not forever, but not this year. Maybe next year? There's still a lot of momentum even if the real estate bubble is bursting. The Chinese society is transiting as we speak. When I was in West China, many times I thought I was in Japan - not referring to buildings but the way people behaved.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Certainly not forever, but not this year. Maybe next year? There's still a lot of momentum even if the real estate bubble is bursting. The Chinese society is transiting as we speak. When I was in West China, many times I thought I was in Japan - not referring to buildings but the way people behaved.

You actually found a place where the Chinese are polite in a crowd?

[touchring]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

You actually found a place where the Chinese are polite in a crowd?

Cultures differ across China. You'll be surprised with what you will find in West China especially in small cities.

I dislike huge crowds, metropolitan cities and polluted air. My experience in Shanghai 10 years ago wasn't good and in my short trip of 2 days, I saw a scuffle in the busy street, a near fight at the airport and a policeman using a small stick to hit a migrant worker. But this was 10 years ago.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

BARRON'S TAKE

Profit Growth Shrivels for China’s Big Four Banks

Bad loans, narrowing interest weigh on profits. Why ICBC and Bank of China hold up better than ABC.

March 27, 2015 4:39 a.m. ET

China’s slowing economy is really starting to take its toll on the country’s biggest banks.

Sector leader Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, or ICBC ( 1398.HK ), was the latest to announce wan fourth-quarter results. The world’s largest bank by assets saw quarterly profits decline year-over-year for the first time since 2009, with net income falling 3% from a year ago to 55.4 billion yuan, or RMB0.15 a share. That missed the mark of the RMB58.2 billion analysts had forecast.

“Strong topline growth and tight operating cost control was offset by surging bad loan provision costs,” writes Bernstein analyst Wei Hou, who maintained his overweight rating on ICBC.

Rival Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC ( 1288.HK ), also felt the drag, with the lender’s fourth-quarter earnings falling 5% from a year earlier. Bank of China ( 3988.HK ), the other of the big four Chinese banks to have announced results recently, fared slightly better with fourth-quarter earnings up 5% compared to a year ago.

Amid the tougher times, all three banks had cut dividend payout to 33%...

...Of the three banks that had reported earnings so far, ICBC and Bank of China appear to be in a better position than ABC to weather the tougher conditions, although the going isn’t likely to get any easier for any of the big banks this year. China’s slowing economy looks set to continue plaguing loan books, while Beijing’s interest rate cuts are expected to eat into net interest margins.

Bad loans had swelled last year for all three of ABC, Bank of China and ICBC. The manufacturing sector, which is usually among the hardest hit in a slowing economy, was a common weak spot. However, because ABC’s loan book has higher exposure to the manufacturing sector than that of ICBC and Bank of China, the lender had suffered a sharper spike in bad loans...

[jpatter666]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Cultures differ across China. You'll be surprised with what you will find in West China especially in small cities.

I dislike huge crowds, metropolitan cities and polluted air. My experience in Shanghai 10 years ago wasn't good and in my short trip of 2 days, I saw a scuffle in the busy street, a near fight at the airport and a policeman using a small stick to hit a migrant worker. But this was 10 years ago.

Dali was wonderful. Even Lijiang was fairly reasonable during the day. Late at night it became different.

Any major city (Kumming) was a pain because the traffic made everyone crazy.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Cultures differ across China. You'll be surprised with what you will find in West China especially in small cities.

I dislike huge crowds, metropolitan cities and polluted air. My experience in Shanghai 10 years ago wasn't good and in my short trip of 2 days, I saw a scuffle in the busy street, a near fight at the airport and a policeman using a small stick to hit a migrant worker. But this was 10 years ago.

A book like this certainly represents a different culture, a fundamentally different family structure and social behavior.

[touchring]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Dali was wonderful. Even Lijiang was fairly reasonable during the day. Late at night it became different.

Any major city (Kumming) was a pain because the traffic made everyone crazy.

I've heard good stories from travelers to Lijiang and Dali and that the natives are friendly. I actually planned to go to Shangrila and further up the off beaten track but changed to Sichuan due to personal reasons.

I think the key to traveling to China is to avoid the domestic tourist seasons.

[jpatter666]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I've heard good stories from travelers to Lijiang and Dali and that the natives are friendly. I actually planned to go to Shangrila and further up the off beaten track but changed to Sichuan due to personal reasons.

I think the key to traveling to China is to avoid the domestic tourist seasons.

We were in Shangri-la in mid-May 2011. The old town was interesting but it was still cold. Cost a fortune to do just about anything there beyond the old town (travel to any of the parks, etc).

In 2014 (?) there was a big fire which burned up much of the old town which was a shame.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

And like all good bubbles it goes on much longer and inflates to a much greater extent than anyone could have imagined.

Is it finally the beginning of the end? Maybe. Maybe not...

HT "0C"

We Traveled Across China and Returned Terrified for the Economy

1:18 PM MDT
April 9, 2015

China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country.
What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook.

Reminds me of Jim Chanos' "Dubai times 1000" quip.

“China’s metals demand is plummeting,” wrote Kenneth Hoffman, the metals analyst who spent a week traveling across the country, meeting with executives, traders, industry groups and analysts. “Demand is rapidly deteriorating as the government slows its infrastructure building and transforms into a consumer economy.”...

Ah yes, the elusive "consumer economy". Apparently the preferred article for consumption has shifted from empty apartments to Shanghai & Hong Kong listed stocks.

...Deteriorating economic data has led traders and analysts to speculate that China’s central bank will act to revive growth. The bank has said it will keep an “appropriate balance between loosening and tightening” of interest rates. It has cut interest rates twice since November and lowered lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios once.

Economists are forecasting 7 percent growth in China for this year, in line with government targets and down from 7.4 percent in 2014, according to the median of 59 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about half the last decade’s peak rate of 14.2 percent in 2007.

The slowing steel and metals activity suggests the outlook could be grimmer.

“There is a big fear this is going to get worse before it gets better,” Hoffman said in an interview. “It’s as bad as the data looks, if not worse.”

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

...Misallocation of capital? In China? Perish the thought...

Last updated: April 16, 2013 5:32 pm

China local authority debt ‘out of control’

By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing

A senior Chinese auditor has warned that local government debt is “out of control” and could spark a bigger financial crisis than the US housing market crash...

Looks like they need to hustle up that conversion from investment spending to a consumer economy...and get all those fisherfolks to start spending money on holiday flights from the nice airports.

http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/04...eoChannel=2602

[jk]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

if the u.s. political system wasn't broken we'd be ramping up infrastructure - steel, concrete, etc - while china was slowing down. both for our own good, and as the renewed engine of the global economy. i guess we need some more bridges to collapse, have the grid go down a few more times over ever wider areas, and watch more coastal cities get torn apart or flooded.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

if the u.s. political system wasn't broken we'd be ramping up infrastructure - steel, concrete, etc - while china was slowing down. both for our own good, and as the renewed engine of the global economy. i guess we need some more bridges to collapse, have the grid go down a few more times over ever wider areas, and watch more coastal cities get torn apart or flooded.

Neither USA domestic steel production nor domestic cement production have recovered to the levels of output just prior to the financial crisis.

Probably the housing bubble that drove those previous peaks.