Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

[BadJuju]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Good points, sir. Could our society's aversion to intimacy between males be a cause for these troubles? If a man cannot be intimate with a male companion, he has to seek out a female and then that becomes problematic because of the sexual component thrown into the mix.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I had not thought of that, but it makes sense. What if there is some unconscious, but omnipresent taboo against two men being very close, then they seek out women for what they should get from other men.

I remember hearing that men in Saudi Arabia would walk down the streets holding hands. The observer, an American woman, was revolted by "all the homos".

[BadJuju]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Your comment about the conflict with truth and desirability gave me pause to think of that. I think that is it. It goes a long way to explain the dysfunction in relationships out there. People have to juggle between what is desirable and the truth, which has created this 'Romance game' where it is more about creating an idealized image of yourself as opposed to presenting who you really are. And all because they are trying to have both companionship and sexual satisfaction from the same source. If men could be emotionally intimate with each other, then this wouldn't even be an issue. It would also lead to much healthier relationships between men and women because there would be far less pretense for maintaining facades.

[Polish_Silver]

honesty in relations

Your comment about the conflict with truth and desirability gave me pause to think of that. I think that is it. It goes a long way to explain the dysfunction in relationships out there. People have to juggle between what is desirable and the truth, which has created this 'Romance game' where it is more about creating an idealized image of yourself as opposed to presenting who you really are. And all because they are trying to have both companionship and sexual satisfaction from the same source. If men could be emotionally intimate with each other, then this wouldn't even be an issue. It would also lead to much healthier relationships between men and women because there would be far less pretense for maintaining facades.

I think the question of honesty is a major problem in trying to find a partner. I often wonder, if I were single again, how I would approach this dilemma. It is a gigantic moral hazard, since you seem to lose out by being honest. I even thought of starting an internet dating site where people could pay to have information verified, for example, age, profession, income, and lack of disease. (precisely the things that people tend to lie about).

It's part of a larger dilemma that, we want the dignity of being liked, but the security of being loved.
Another symptom: the adage that men play at love to get sex, and women play at sex to get love. (or is at money that both are really after?)

I agree with you, at least part of the problem arises from the structure of our relationships.

I think some sort of group structure is the answer, but how to create a cohesive group of non-relatives is difficult. I think we need to re-cover the highly cooperative group lifestyle of our distant ancestors. But formidable legal and cultural barriers exist.

[shiny!]

Re: honesty in relations

I think the question of honesty is a major problem in trying to find a partner. I often wonder, if I were single again, how I would approach this dilemma. It is a gigantic moral hazard, since you seem to lose out by being honest. I even thought of starting an internet dating site where people could pay to have information verified, for example, age, profession, income, and lack of disease. (precisely the things that people tend to lie about).

It's part of a larger dilemma that, we want the dignity of being liked, but the security of being loved.
Another symptom: the adage that men play at love to get sex, and women play at sex to get love. (or is at money that both are really after?)

I agree with you, at least part of the problem arises from the structure of our relationships.

I think some sort of group structure is the answer, but how to create a cohesive group of non-relatives is difficult. I think we need to re-cover the highly cooperative group lifestyle of our distant ancestors. But formidable legal and cultural barriers exist.

Twenty years ago I had a sweet little Doberman that injured her leg. I asked my neighbor for help carrying her into the car, which he did, then he drove us 30 miles to my vet in Santa Fe. The vet told us she had torn her ACL. The surgery would be $400. (that same surgery now costs $5000) My neighbor had just gotten his tax refund, which he loaned me for the surgery. After the surgery, he helped me with her physical rehabilitation.

That began the courtship between my dear late husband and myself. He used to joke that he married me for my dog and I married him for his money, then the dog died and the money was gone but we were still together.

When he proposed to me, we talked for three days and nights before deciding to do it. We discussed our values, what had gone wrong in our previous marriages that we didn't want to repeat, what we each wanted from a spouse, what we were prepared to give to our spouse, what was negotiable, what was non-negotiable. Those were three very unromantic days, but by the time we were finished we felt that we could make it work.

We did make it work but it was hard work some times. The Sikh view of marriage is two bodies with one soul. "They are not married when two people merely sit together (in the marriage ceremony). Call them married only when two people have but one soul."

I can't speak for anyone else, but for a Sikh, the purpose of marriage isn't romantic fulfillment. It's to see and foster the Divine in each other. Help each other be the best they can be, serve and inspire one another, use the marriage union to serve the Creator.

A lot of relationships based on notions of romance fail because the people are each using the other to serve their own egos instead of sublimating their egos, serving each other in a spirit of selfless Love.

Last week was the second anniversary of my husband's death. I still love him more each day. Even now he is with me, still giving me love and encouragement as he always did.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: honesty in relations

Twenty years ago I had a sweet little Doberman that injured her leg. I asked my neighbor for help carrying her into the car, which he did, then he drove us 30 miles to my vet in Santa Fe. The vet told us she had torn her ACL. The surgery would be $400. (that same surgery now costs $5000) My neighbor had just gotten his tax refund, which he loaned me for the surgery. After the surgery, he helped me with her physical rehabilitation.

That began the courtship between my dear late husband and myself. He used to joke that he married me for my dog and I married him for his money, then the dog died and the money was gone but we were still together.

When he proposed to me, we talked for three days and nights before deciding to do it. We discussed our values, what had gone wrong in our previous marriages that we didn't want to repeat, what we each wanted from a spouse, what we were prepared to give to our spouse, what was negotiable, what was non-negotiable. Those were three very unromantic days, but by the time we were finished we felt that we could make it work.

We did make it work but it was hard work some times. The Sikh view of marriage is two bodies with one soul. "They are not married when two people merely sit together (in the marriage ceremony). Call them married only when two people have but one soul."

I can't speak for anyone else, but for a Sikh, the purpose of marriage isn't romantic fulfillment. It's to see and foster the Divine in each other. Help each other be the best they can be, serve and inspire one another, use the marriage union to serve the Creator.

A lot of relationships based on notions of romance fail because the people are each using the other to serve their own egos instead of sublimating their egos, serving each other in a spirit of selfless Love.

Last week was the second anniversary of my husband's death. I still love him more each day. Even now he is with me, still giving me love and encouragement as he always did.

Interesting take on life and marriage Shiny.

Thanks for sharing.

I'm a believer in romantic love, and am fortunate to share it with my wife.

But I would agree that the vast majority of the time it is more like a partnership of us against the world....supporting each other.

The start of our relationship followed within weeks with a move around the world. The only promise was no marriage and no kids. Now we're married with kids.

We have a dog to connect us as well.......he came just before the kids. And he just had an op to remove two toes(full day at the vet surgery only $600, I was expecting thousands).

Romance isn't what makes a marriage work(but it certainly makes for some wonderful milestones), I reckon what makes a marriage work is mutual support, sacrifice(my wife is looking after our family single handed while I deploy yet again), and serving each other like you posted.

I recall some of the posts you've written about your husband.

He sounds like a truly good man.

[shiny!]

Re: honesty in relations

Romance isn't what makes a marriage work(but it certainly makes for some wonderful milestones),

It sure does :-)

I reckon what makes a marriage work is mutual support, sacrifice(my wife is looking after our family single handed while I deploy yet again), and serving each other like you posted.

Robert Johnson wrote "Love is stirring the oatmeal."

Sounds like you and your wife have a good relationship. I hope your deployment goes well and your dog has a speedy recovery.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Let's take a little trip back in time...to the days of Alan Greenspan before the "Sir" was added. To the bucolic days of the spring of 2005:

Greenspan Is Concerned About 'Froth' in Housing

Published: May 21, 2005

WASHINGTON, May 20 - Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, suggested on Friday that the red-hot housing market is becoming a little too exuberant for its own good...

...Mr. Greenspan emphasized that he sees no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he acknowledged concerns over "froth" in the market and pointed to a big increase in speculation in homes - particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are "a lot of local bubbles" around the country...

Just imagine the feeling of "déjà vu all over again" when I read this...

What bubble?

January 19, 2010

Residents of big Chinese cities are worried about bubbles. It's easy to see why: Shanghai mortgages rose 1,600% in 2009 from 2008 to US$15.58 billion, while residential property prices in the city shot up 68% from 2008 to US$4,571 per square meter. The rapid growth has prompted moves to curb speculation, including – in Shanghai at least – tightening of tax and financing policies on second-home purchases.


Such high rates of growth are of course unsustainable, but it remains too early to talk of bubbles nationwide. Yes, Wang Shi, chairman of developer Vanke, warned that property markets in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were frothy, but there is more to China than first-tier cities...

Who is going to fill those empty apartment blocks now???

Beijing Bans One-Person Households From Buying Second Homes


By Bloomberg News - Mar 30, 2013 6:00 AM MT

The city of Beijing banned single- person households from buying more than one residence and increased the minimum down-payment for all buyers of second homes as the government seeks to cool the property market.

The new measures take effect tomorrow, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, which said the city will also enforce a 20 percent tax on capital gains from property. Current rules allow each household with a Beijing residence permit to buy a second home, opening the way for couples to divorce on paper to double their ability to invest.

Prices in the capital jumped 5.9 percent from a year earlier in February, the biggest increase since February 2011, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said March 18. Prices across the country rose 160 percent in 1998-2011 after ownership passed into private hands, government data show.

“This will help to calm people’s panic about home prices,” said Yi Xianrong, a Beijing-based researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which advises the cabinet. “At the same time, restrictions on home purchases don’t change the fundamental demand, and it seems the new measures in Beijing are aimed more at short-term problems rather than long-term healthy development of the property market.”

The city government of Shanghai, where new home prices in February rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, also issued a notice saying the city will increase down-payment requirements and interest rates for second-home mortgages, while strictly prohibiting banks from providing credit to third-home buyers...

...China has “very serious” property market bubbles in some regions, Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of Agricultural Bank of China, told a forum in Beijing yesterday. China’s property curbs have seen “very limited” results as these measures are focusing on limiting demand while China should instead focus on boosting supply, Xiang said...

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

China’s Home Prices Increase Most in 26 Months, SouFun Says
By Bloomberg News - Apr 1, 2013 1:31 AM MT

China’s March new home prices posted the biggest gain in more than two years as buyers rushed into the market ahead of property curbs by local governments, driving real estate stocks higher.

Prices climbed for the 10th month, rising 1.1 percent to 9,998 yuan ($1,610) per square meter (10.76 square feet) from February, SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the country’s biggest real estate website owner, said in a statement today after a survey of 100 cities. That’s the biggest increase since January 2011.

“The earlier property policy uncertainty drove quite a lot of buyers into the market, while supply, usually low in the first quarter, couldn’t catch up with the demand,” said Zhao Zhenyi, a Shanghai-based property analyst at Industrial Securities Co. “Home sales will weaken in the coming months as more local governments announce curbs for the cities.”...

[bart]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

For what its worth:

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

For what its worth:

Makes oil look like a stable commodity.

So is this the ultimate "Risk On/Risk Off" asset?

[bart]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Makes oil look like a stable commodity.

So is this the ultimate "Risk On/Risk Off" asset?

Keep in mind that the chart is Shanghai, not China - but yes, it's a top quality roller coaster.


RORO wise, there are so many outrageous assets around the world the last few years that my mind boggles.
I think I might blow my tinfoil hat off the top of head if I thought about it too much. ;-)

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

And like all good bubbles it goes on much longer and inflates to a much greater extent than anyone could have imagined.

Is it finally the beginning of the end? Maybe. Maybe not...

China’s riskiest property market just collapsed. Is this how it starts?

February 25, 2013 at 11:05 am

...

Repeat after me:

China property is a "cash market";

The Chinese government "won't let" the property market crash;

China has 1.1 Billion people that need homes so all the empty apartments will get filled;

It's different in China because a centrally planned economy and a totalitarian government can make and implement good economic decisions so much more quickly and effectively than the USA or any other democracy...

(feel free to add your own China myth to the list)

Misallocation of capital? In China? Perish the thought...

Last updated: April 16, 2013 5:32 pm

China local authority debt ‘out of control’

By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing

A senior Chinese auditor has warned that local government debt is “out of control” and could spark a bigger financial crisis than the US housing market crash.

Zhang Ke said his accounting firm, ShineWing, had all but stopped signing off on bond sales by local governments as a result of his concerns.

“We audited some local government bond issues and found them very dangerous, so we pulled out,” said Mr Zhang, who is also vice-chairman of China’s accounting association. “Most don’t have strong debt servicing abilities. Things could become very serious.”

The International Monetary Fund, rating agencies and investment banks have all raised concerns about Chinese government debt. But it is rare for a figure as established in the Chinese financial industry as Mr Zhang to issue such a stark warning.

“It is already out of control,” Mr Zhang said. “A crisis is possible. But since the debt is being rolled over and is long-term, the timing of its explosion is uncertain.”...

...Last week, Fitch cut China’s sovereign credit rating, in the first such move by an international agency since 1999. On Tuesday, Moody’s cut its outlook for China’s rating from positive to stable.

Local governments are prohibited from directly raising debt, so they have used special purpose vehicles to circumvent these rules, issuing bonds under the vehicles’ names to fund infrastructure projects.

Investment companies owned by local governments sold Rmb283bn of bonds in the first quarter of 2013, more than double the total for the same period last year. Such an increase would normally be expected to boost the economy, but China’s growth unexpectedly slowed to 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013...

...Mr Zhang said many local governments had invested in projects from public squares to road repairs that were generating lacklustre returns, and so were relying on financing rollovers to pay back their creditors. “The only thing you can do is issue new debt to repay the old,” he said. “But there will be some day down the line when this can’t go on.”

Mr Zhang added that he grew alarmed when smaller towns and counties discovered that investment vehicle bonds were an easy way to raise financing. “This evolution was quite frightening,” he said. “China has more than 2,800 counties. If every county issued debt, it could lead to a crisis. It could be even bigger than the US housing crisis.”...

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Local governments are prohibited from directly raising debt, so they have used special purpose vehicles to circumvent these rules, issuing bonds under the vehicles’ names to fund infrastructure projects.

I liked that part. So much like Enron, Greece, et. al.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I liked that part. So much like Enron, Greece, et. al.

And Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, Bank of America...

The Chinese are running this experiment on a scale we haven't seen before (Chanos' "Dubai times 1000"). Who knows how it ends? But I'll bet it looks very much like all the other splatter patterns when the SHTF, only bigger. Much bigger.