Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Size of the pile:

I calculate a cube 30.3m on a side! That is thirty thousand cubic meters.

Starting numbers:

alumina density 4g/cubic cm

1000 g/kg

1 metric ton = 1000 kg

missing alumina

123,000 TONS.

A large suburban lot with a 10 story house on it.

In the first original post I wonder if they meant to say "aluminum" rather than "alumina".
"Alumina" is aluminum oxide -most people know it as the abrasive in common brown-colored sand paper.
Seems to me a story about missing metal pledged as collateral would be talking about billets of metallic aluminum, not about piles of alumina sand (or fine ceramic powder).

[Southernguy]

Re: Size of the pile:

Local authorities are checking metal inventories worth about 1.54 billion yuan including 194,000 tons of alumina, 62,000 tons of aluminum and some copper, the person said, asking not to be identified as he isn’t authorized to speak publicly...

Seems that it is both; alumina and aluminium.

[lektrode]

Re: Size of the pile:

Local authorities are checking metal inventories worth about 1.54 billion yuan including 194,000 tons of alumina, 62,000 tons of aluminum and some copper, the person said, asking not to be identified as he isn’t authorized to speak publicly...

Seems that it is both; alumina and aluminium.

ok, so at least they know WHAT is 'missing'

but what WE are missing is: what % of their demand/consumption does this amount to?

is it a weeks worth?
a months worth - HOW MUCH is it?

[lektrode]

Re: Size of the pile:

Local authorities are checking metal inventories worth about 1.54 billion yuan including 194,000 tons of alumina, 62,000 tons of aluminum and some copper, the person said, asking not to be identified as he isn’t authorized to speak publicly...

Seems that it is both; alumina and aluminium.

ok, so at least they know WHAT is 'missing'

but what WE are missing is: what % of their demand/consumption does this amount to?

is it a weeks worth?
a months worth - HOW MUCH is it?

[Southernguy]

Re: Size of the pile:

China demand 2012 around 23 million tonnes
http://www.hydro.com/upload/Document...20TS%20VS2.pdf

[lektrode]

Re: Size of the pile:

China demand 2012 around 23 million tonnes
http://www.hydro.com/upload/Document...20TS%20VS2.pdf

so the 'missing' tonnage isnt quite the 'game changer' that some seem to think it is, eh SG?
altho as P_S noted, its easy to get some confusion in calculating such big numbers...
nice find/thanks for that report tho!
that kind of stuff fascinates me...

[astonas]

Re: Size of the pile:

so the 'missing' tonnage isnt quite the 'game changer' that some seem to think it is, eh SG?
altho as P_S noted, its easy to get some confusion in calculating such big numbers...
nice find/thanks for that report tho!
that kind of stuff fascinates me...

maybe. But maybe not. In how many places was a similar game being played? Is it more reasonable to think this is an isolated event, or representative of the majority of stockyards in China?

[touchring]

Re: Size of the pile:

maybe. But maybe not. In how many places was a similar game being played? Is it more reasonable to think this is an isolated event, or representative of the majority of stockyards in China?

In China, you assume it's fake, adulterated or poor quality unless proven real and verified.

Fake eggs.



Gutter oil made into cooking oil



Fake rice

[jk]

Re: Size of the pile:

In China, you assume it's fake, adulterated or poor quality unless proven real and verified.

this should provide a huge opportunity for brand-building. part of branding is delivering a reliably standardized product. of course any brands will attract counterfeiters, but there should be ways to make that hard, similar to what's done with circulating currencies.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Size of the pile:

In China, you assume it's fake, adulterated or poor quality unless proven real and verified.

Since my wife and I had children, we have been as careful as we can about avoiding Chinese produced or processed food in our house.

It's like Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle" meets Bladerunner.

[touchring]

Re: Size of the pile:

Since my wife and I had children, we have been as careful as we can about avoiding Chinese produced or processed food in our house.

It's like Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle" meets Bladerunner.

Not easy to avoid stuff from China.

http://www.naturalnews.com/036584_Wh...uce_China.html

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I doubt this is as binary as we might imagine.

First, there may be explicit approval and some relaxation of funds transfer capability out of China for the well connected wealthy, as part of an effort to find ways to vent the excess private savings into something other than internal property speculation and shadow banking system investment products, both of which are causing concern with the authorities. Buying gold and various luxury goods inside China can only absorb so much...foreign real estate and perhaps other private investment abroad might be carefully encouraged.

But monitoring and controlling the outflows, once started, might also be problematic in a nation as large, populous, complex and corrupt as China...

Well, well, imagine that...

Secret Path Revealed for Chinese Billions Overseas

By Bloomberg News
July 14, 2014 3:37 AM MT

For years, wealthy Chinese have been transferring billions worth of their money overseas, snapping up pricey real estate in markets including New York, Sydney andVancouver despite their country’s currency restrictions.

Now, one way they could be doing it is clearer. Last week, when China Central Television leveled money-laundering allegations against Bank of China Ltd., the state-run broadcaster’s report prompted the revelation of a previously unannounced government program that enables individuals to transfer their yuan and convert it into dollars or other currencies overseas.

Offered by some banks in the southern province of Guangdong, across the border from Hong Kong, the trial program was introduced in 2011 for overseas property purchases and emigration and doesn’t constitute money laundering, Bank of China said in a July 9 statement. The transfers were allowed by regulators and reported to them, the bank said...

...The issue came to light after CCTV said Bank of China helped customers transfer unlimited amounts of yuan abroad through a product called Youhuitong, which means “superior foreign-exchange channel.”...

...The Guangdong branch of China’s currency regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, picked Bank of China, China Citic Bank Corp. (998) and a foreign lender to let individuals transfer yuan abroad in a trial the banks were told not to promote, Time Weekly reported in April 2013. A Beijing-based Citic Bank press officer declined to comment on the program.

...Youhuitong has been suspended while the PBOC and its anti-money laundering bureau request records of all previous transactions, according to a person familiar with the product, who asked not to be identified because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.

Transfer approval for Youhuitong customers usually takes several weeks to a month, the person said. They need to provide documents showing how the money to be transferred was obtained, such as tax-payment receipts and proof of income, as well as a property-purchase agreement or proof of emigration, he said.

Youhuitong customers would typically deposit yuan with Bank of China at least two weeks before the transfer, the person said. Once approved, the customer and the bank agree on an exchange rate before the funds are moved to an overseas account designated by the customer, he said. Money destined for real estate would go directly to the property seller’s account to ensure the cash won’t be misused, he said...

...Chinese buyers, including people from Hong Kong and Taiwan, spent $22 billion on U.S. homes in the year through March, up 72 percent from the same period in 2013 and more than any other nationality, the National Association of Realtors said in its annual report on foreign home purchases...

...“Clearly the property market wouldn’t nearly be so robust as it is today without mainland money,” Mizuho’s Antos said. “How did they do it? With Bank of China’s help. There has been a tremendous amount of mainland money flowing offshore and it couldn’t have happened without” official approval...

...“We know the demand to move abroad is there,” said ANZ’s Zhou. “Even if you impose various restrictions, the money will find its way out of the country, via underground banks and other means.”

[gorinv]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Am I the only one who finds the acronym for the CCP's state run television network is CCTV amusing

[gorinv]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Am I the only one who finds the acronym for the CCP's state run television network CCTV amusing

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

This cracked me up. I guess we now know how the wealthy Chinese get all their money out to purchase properties in cash worldwide.

I wonder if that means the up and coming Chinese are the only buyers of local properties?

A friend of mine 4 months ago was in the process of buying an apartment/condo in Beijing with his dad (he is an economist here in the US at a university and a Chinese immigrant). He had to go to the Chinese embassy to fill out some documents etc.

I asked "what happens if the Chinese property market collapses?" Especially after this massive run up in the last 5 years.

He said "the Chinese property market never goes down, wages are rising and millions are coming from the countryside into the city."

We shall see.