Tweet
As a VET of 2 major recessions i am wondering when we getting the next? I see alsorts of Bearish news, but the markets just don't care.
We are "Due" one.
Mike
We are "Due" one.
Mike
-
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
According to John Williams (shadowstats.com) if you use all the measures as they used to be measured before all the statistical shenanigans began we've been in a recession for a while now.
unemployment (if you include people that used to be called unemployed)
GDP (if you use the "right" (pre-1995) inflation methodology)
all went into recession at least a quarter ago.
Originally posted by Mega View Post -
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
I agee but i wonder when it will get to point where they can't hide it? When will Mr & Mrs America see that YES they are in recession and YES it would be a good idea to put the "plastic" down!
MikeComment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
A recent Gallup poll showed that about 60% of the US thought we were either in one now or that it would occur later this year.Originally posted by Mega View Post
I believe we've been in one since about last August.
The NBER is the organization that calls them though, and since the early '80s it gets called at about the time it's actually over.Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
I had originally predicted last November for the start, and I'm in the 60% camp who thinks we're already in one.
Funny thing, if you review those transcripts of Fed meetings from 2001, at the May meeting (we were already in recession) much laughter and joking around about a recession was happening but all were in denial that a recession would even happen, let alone that one had already started:
From Mr. Santamero, district 12MR. MOSKOW. David, I have a question for you. You started out your comments by saying the economy is very weak, though not in a recession. And then I think you said we are not far from a recession. Yet when I look at the alternative simulations in the Greenbook, none of the downside scenarios appears to put us into a recession. In fact the most negative in terms of an impact is a productivity slowdown where monetary policy has less of a positive effect on the outcome. So I was just wondering whether you could be a little more specific about what it would take to push us into a recession?
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. A new model! -laughterRemember kids, we were already in a recession as these guys were trying to figure out when the next one would happen.In our second-quarter survey of professional forecasters, which is scheduled to bereleased next week, on average respondents to our special question about the likelihood of a recession put the probability that the economy will fall into recession this year at 35 percent and next year at 20 percent.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/t...ripts_2001.htm
If you want to ignore the impact of 9/11, and argue that the economy would've recovered without that event, I'm fine with that, but the 2001 recession was already ongoing while they laughed over their charts and graphs denying that one existed or the likelihood that one would happen.
As for the professional forecasters, I'll take the average joe telling me about his real life over what professional forecasters predict. They're out of touch while average joe is lives it.Last edited by Uncle Jack; May 17, 2007, 06:07 AM.It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye!Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
Hey Mega,Originally posted by Mega View Post
Good to see someone who's focused less on what/why/how/etc and more on when.
We get a lot of people with all sorts of ideas, theories, and opinions, but really at the end of the day the most important questions is - timing.
My guess is that china will stop printing money, the RMB will rise, and the USD will drop. US inflation will increases, USD will drop, but US profitability will rise at the same pace as inflation.
A vague sort of stagflation will occur, though a balance such that inflation will equal recession. Living standards will not increase but profits will.
I think the order of the day with respect to investing will be maintainig value. Equities are probably the way to go.Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
This MIGHT trigger it:-
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1252
MikeComment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
May is the bottom. The choice is either we will have high rates of negative growth in real gdp, or we will have high rates of inflation. In between, we will have a vicious level of stagflation.
Gold's up from here on.Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
Yes, but how to buy it!
Paper or coins?
MikeComment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
according to leap2020 we're already in a recession. they look at the u.s. economy in euros, pounds, yen, yuan as well as us$, and say gdp is shrinking in 3 of those currencies. it does raise an interesting point vis a vis the decline of the dollar, i.e. the dollar as a shrinking yardstick. [i'm surprised finster isn't the one saying this.]
Comment
-
Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
Both short-term & long-term monetary flows (MVt) have bottomed. Inflation is due for a big pick-up!Comment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
.........................and with it BIG rates
Thank You God!
MikeComment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
Where is thread going ?????
Consumers are shifting from the housing ATM, back to the standard credit card debt ? Targets average consumers makes 55 G$'s a year, what does WallyWorlds make ????
I went out of stocks in feb, and I have missed some good gains in my 401k
:mad::mad:. When is the blow off coming ??? Rate hike-- ha ha ha :rolleyes:
Many more questions than answersI one day will run with the big dogs in the world currency markets, and stick it to the manComment
-
Re: Ok, so where's the recession?
If i had to guess i say the "Start" (as i EVERYONE seeing it) is about 12 months off. The Dying days of Bush and co......sadly its the next Prez (Whom ever) that is going to have to grasp the nettles.
MikeComment
Comment