When Deflation = Inflation

[raja]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

i'm metalman & i'm stupid.

I think it's good to periodically recount EJ's record of calls, so no objections from me on that score, MM.

However, misremembering is not good.
You said, "has itulip ever said 'time to short china'? no. it asked 'is china a bubble'. not enough conviction for me to short china."

In reality, EJ was not merely asking a question. He actually suggested that iTulip members who want to bet on his call find out ways to do so. In his China call post, EJ ended the piece by saying,

• "China is about where Japan was in late 1989 and the U.S. in early 2000, near the top of both stock market and housing bubbles, or at least close enough for the adventurous gambler to short it. Perhaps our members have some ideas."

Granted he says "adventurous gamblers", but everyone knows that we're all gamblers if we're playing in the "investment" casino, right?

EJ's record deserves remembering. However, when people attack you for it (unfairly, IMO), it would be good to keep your response factual.

While on the subject, let me say that I don't expect EJ to be perfect. But what I object to is that he doesn't always clean up from mistakes in a way that benefits members. It took him over two months to inform us that his China call was not going to work . . . .

[bart]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Well, if it makes you feel better Bart, the sites I linked to refer to yours as a source. Kudos to you...

Thanks man, much appreciated for both.

Mea culpa - I goofed and did not read the full articles, just scanned them and missed any links. That made my day. :cool:





And on EJ's call on China, he did call the intermediate top within a day or so of the *actual* top as I recall, and that's damn good work.

My view is that a simple following down trend line would have gotten any one who shorted it out within 10-15% of the intermediate term bottom, and at a very nice profit. The K.I.S.S. principle of technical analysis can & does work.

[GRG55]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I think it's good to periodically recount EJ's record of calls, so no objections from me on that score, MM.

However, misremembering is not good.
You said, "has itulip ever said 'time to short china'? no. it asked 'is china a bubble'. not enough conviction for me to short china."

In reality, EJ was not merely asking a question. He actually suggested that iTulip members who want to bet on his call find out ways to do so. In his China call post, EJ ended the piece by saying,

• "China is about where Japan was in late 1989 and the U.S. in early 2000, near the top of both stock market and housing bubbles, or at least close enough for the adventurous gambler to short it. Perhaps our members have some ideas."

Granted he says "adventurous gamblers", but everyone knows that we're all gamblers if we're playing in the "investment" casino, right?

EJ's record deserves remembering. However, when people attack you for it (unfairly, IMO), it would be good to keep your response factual.

While on the subject, let me say that I don't expect EJ to be perfect. But what I object to is that he doesn't always clean up from mistakes in a way that benefits members. It took him over two months to inform us that his China call was not going to work . . . .

Maybe he was just a wee bit early...;)

Rogers Says Shanghai, Hong Kong Property in Bubble

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Shanghai and Hong Kong property prices may fall after being driven higher by speculative demand, said investor Jim Rogers, author of “A Bull in China.”

Efforts to restrain lending underscore the government’s attempt to take “some of the heat out of the economy,” he said in an interview in Bloomberg’s Singapore bureau today. The rest of the Chinese economy is “hardly in a bubble,” he said.

Property prices in 70 cities across China climbed 7.8 percent in December, the fastest pace in 18 months, a government report showed last week. Hong Kong’s real estate prices rallied the most among the world’s major housing markets last year, according to property adviser Knight Frank LLP, adding to signs that the city’s home values have risen too much.

“Certainly, Shanghai real estate or Hong Kong real estate should decline,” said Rogers, 67. “My goodness, if anything’s in a bubble in the world, that and U.S. government bonds are certainly very overpriced.”...

Then again, maybe Jimmy is early too...or just plain wrong...:p

[touchring]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

The bubble in HK is no where near the bubble in Singapore. Just look at the Singapore stock chart, 100% up in USD since March lows.

http://www.theedgeproperty.com/globa...32nd-spot.html

SINGAPORE: The city state’s office rental rate has plummeted from the ninth most expensive in the world a year ago to 32nd spot, according to a CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) report.
General rental rates have also dropped significantly, from an annual $135.13 (RM459.44) to $663.89 psf – down 53.4%. Singapore’s office rental drop was the largest among leading Asia-Pacific cities.