When Deflation = Inflation

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I'm now comtemplating a 'follow Buffett' strategy, whatever he buys, buy, seems almost foolproof and works. Simple as it sounds, it's tough to implement. Buffet bought BYD at $7 or so, it shot up to $13, i hesitated, then the crisis came, i forgot about it. After the crisis, it shot up to over $70.

By the way, iTulip did call Green energy the next bubble, so in this respect it agrees with Buffett.

correction... iTulip did call Green energy the next bubble before Buffett did, so in this respect Buffett agrees with iTulip.

[jpatter666]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

no, you still don't get it. let me try again.

when itulip says 'time to short' that means 'time to short'

when the article says 'the stock market may go down' that means 'the stock market may go down'

when the article says 'reflation rally' that means 'reflation rally'.

stupid... that's me... doesn't trade the rallies, but if i did i'd get both the benefit of dodging the 40% down bullet in 2008 & the reflation rally starting in late mar 2009.

MM, EJ admitted he blew the call, if you're going to parrot the iTulip line get with the program! ;)

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I love EJ's work, but quite frankly sometimes I miss the point of many pieces of his writing because it is so buried in supporting facts and historical references. Sometimes I find myself just saying "Get to the point EJ".

'don't show the work, just give me the answer' is the attitude i see everywhere... it will kill itulip if ej listens to it. if he does that, i'll stop reading him.

[touchring]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

correction... iTulip did call Green energy the next bubble before Buffett did, so in this respect Buffett agrees with iTulip.

Yes, my wrong. I think iTulip had underestimated the ability of China to change the equation, the lengths that the CCP would go to prop up China's factories and employment (although at the expense of employment in the US and Europe) which turns out to be bullish for all the stock markets because companies make money when commodities rise (inflation), and the idea of inflation itself will drive people to buy stocks.

[renewable]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

correction... iTulip did call Green energy the next bubble before Buffett did, so in this respect Buffett agrees with iTulip.

Out of interest, what date did iTulip first make this call?

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Cindy, I am not sure to understand, but did you short and "got creamed" with the money you made and saved from this call or perhaps this call by iTulip?

You appear to suffers from tunnel vision and demonstrates short memory in addition to your lack of knowledge of iTulip's past work.

Now, please understand that no one will be perfect over 10+ years of forecasting. Despite their amazing track record, note that EJ and the iTulip folks are one of the few who can admit their mishaps such as the S&P bear call of 2009 (again google is your friend, but I will make it easy for you: click here or here.). So tell me, oh Cindy, do you know many forecasters that are this honest and transparent about their past calls and/or past mistakes?

More importantly, the following questions comes to mind: what do you recommend? who do think has a better track record than iTulip and can you prove it? Lastly, who do you think is ultimately responsible for the financial decisions you make?

Get this

I dont buy or short stocks since 1972 when I figured out what ej figured out about the market.

Cindy

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

'don't show the work, just give me the answer' is the attitude i see everywhere... it will kill itulip if ej listens to it. if he does that, i'll stop reading him.

Metalman that is not what the guy said and your response proves your sacrcastic responses in this thread: and that is that you are "stupid"

Cindy

[Rajiv]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

!972 -- You go back a ways -- I would be curious about your experiences that caused you to come to that conclusion -- though that was the begining of the long bear market.

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

!972 -- You go back a ways -- I would be curious about your experiences that caused you to come to that conclusion -- though that was the begining of the long bear market.

I bought a sure thing stock and lost money. Two brokers made money when I bought and two brokers made money when I sold.

I stopped buying stock and became a real estate broker and bought treasuries.

Made a lot of money saved a lot of money retired in my forties and became a minister,

Peace

Cindy

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I bought a sure thing stock and lost money. Two brokers made money when I bought and two brokers made money when I sold.

I stopped buying stock and became a real estate broker and bought treasuries.

Made a lot of money saved a lot of money retired in my forties and became a minister,

Peace

Cindy

a minister who speculates in the stock market... ;)

[stanley2008]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

ok, let me give you some perspective...

iTulip forecasts since 1998

iTulip has a record going back to 1998 for calling the most significant economic and financial market events since then–as noted by the financial press, above. In retrospect, these appear obvious but were heretical when they were made, as they went against the prevailing mood and beliefs of the times.

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top, crash to follow that leads to severe recession
  
• October 2006: Severe recession starts Q4 2007
  
• December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market, 40% decline to follow
  
• June 16, 2008: Top of commercial real estate market, crash to follow
  
• September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash
• March 27, 2009: Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce

that is by not an exhaustive list...



if you grantham's first 'bottom' calls... in oct 2008... you lost another 20% that you did not if you listened to ej.

granthum has issued a dozeon contradictory calls... 'Great bubbles like the one in 2000 take a long time to wash through the system, and you shouldn't really expect a low much before 2010. The fair value on the [Standard & Poor's 500 index] is about 1025 [versus 910 late last week].'
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/...-holding-back/

later that month he says he's buying.

Not sure how Jeremy Grantham got dragged into this. I was not and am not following grantham. But as I have no opinion on Grantham here is what EJ said about Grantham:

Listening to Grantham, it occurred to me as it has from time to time since mid-year that I did my readers a disservice by not encouraging them to dive back into the stock market at the panic point in March 2009 as Grantham did. While Grantham did not make a specific forecast in late 2007 on the extent of the coming decline in 2008 as I did, he was loud and clear about shorting the stock market starting in 2007. My orientation is the Debt Deflation Bear Market process that began its first year in 2008. Using that model I forecast a decline of 40% in 2008, and so it was.

He got the direction and timing right in both directions.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12614

but that's noise... you forgot this... itulip isn't chasing the reflation rallies because we didn't lose 40% in 2008 in the first place... we dodged that bullet.

if you ignored the 'debt deflation bear market' warning in dec 2007 when the s&p was 1500 & stayed in the market thru 2008 & thru the predicted here before it happened 'reflation rally'... a fact you conveniently forget.. you still down 25% even after the 60% rise since mar 2009.

so... let me sum up your position. you want to not lose 40% in the predicted correction & also make a 60% gain on the rebound?

good luck finding that service.

You sum up my position inaccurately. Yes of course I would like to avoid losses and partcipate in the rebound. Everybody would. I do not expect anybody , EJ included, to be able to forecast this accurately.

My position is in summary: Notwithstanding an excellent forecasting record, EJ has made some bad calls in the past year. To argue otherwise, as you do Metal, is contrary to the rational and fact-based dialogue that we all expect.

[Quincy K]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I love EJ's work, but quite frankly sometimes I miss the point of many pieces of his writing because it is so buried in supporting facts and historical references. Sometimes I find myself just saying "Get to the point EJ".

Supporting facts and historical references are all we have to try and forecast in this looney-tune era. In all likelihood, it probably beats a crystal ball or a coin toss. The CB's have done a fabulous job kicking the ball down the road buying time. My guess, time runs out before the end of 2010 through some sort of bond default as the FED cannot bail out everyone. There is just too much unsustainable and unmarketable debt.

I took out some short positions around December(hoping for 2010 long-term cap gains).

And if they don't pan out or come to fruition, I am sure as hell not going to come here and bitch to EJ about it or google some of his past posts to prove that he was wrong.

[jpatter666]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I bought a sure thing stock and lost money. Two brokers made money when I bought and two brokers made money when I sold.

I stopped buying stock and became a real estate broker and bought treasuries.

Made a lot of money saved a lot of money retired in my forties and became a minister,

Peace

Cindy

Curious -- do you expect a similar reaction to your own for housing, since your own experience could be translated to:

I bought a sure thing [house] stock and lost money. Two [real estate] brokers made money when I bought and two [real estate] brokers made money when I sold.

As an aside, I personally think the real estate brokerage market is one of the few near-monopoly areas I really want to see broken up, I can't see 6% costs justified anymore.

[bart]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

I like the article he links to showing gold as a hedge against negative real interest rates. There's a pretty strong correlation.

In the immortal words of Charlie Brown, I have to give this at least three "Good grief!" moments.


I put these charts together at least two years ago:

[Mashuri]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Well, if it makes you feel better Bart, the sites I linked to refer to yours as a source. Kudos to you...

In the immortal words of Charlie Brown, I have to give this at least three "Good grief!" moments.


I put these charts together at least two years ago: