When Deflation = Inflation

[Mashuri]

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2010/0105.html

This article by Shelby Moore (FYI, inflation/deflation is defined in this article as decreasing/increasing purchasing power of a currency) helped clarify for me how we may have what looks to be deflation/low inflation yet feel like we are experiencing higher inflation. He shows how purchasing power decreases during deflation and how it is unique to a debt based fiat system. Also, I like the article he links to showing gold as a hedge against negative real interest rates. There's a pretty strong correlation.

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2010/0105.html

This article by Shelby Moore (FYI, inflation/deflation is defined in this article as decreasing/increasing purchasing power of a currency) helped clarify for me how we may have what looks to be deflation/low inflation yet feel like we are experiencing higher inflation. He shows how purchasing power decreases during deflation and how it is unique to a debt based fiat system. Also, I like the article he links to showing gold as a hedge against negative real interest rates. There's a pretty strong correlation.

a dozen articles on itulip say the same... starting around 2001...

Door Number Two - iTulip.com

Reflation without Representation - iTulip.com

Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble

etc, etc, etc...

[Crazyfingers]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

a dozen articles on itulip say the same... starting around 2001...

Door Number Two - iTulip.com

Reflation without Representation - iTulip.com

Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble

etc, etc, etc...

So Metalman should we just take EJ and Itulip for gospel now? Funny thing is when I followed one of EJ's calls and lost my ass, you folks told me not to follow blindly. But yet every other post, you smugly point out that EJ and Itulip have all ready figured it all out.

SO which is it Metalman? Or Should people just stop posting articles, because EJ figured it all out in 2001 waaaaay before they did.

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

So Metalman should we just take EJ and Itulip for gospel now? Funny thing is when I followed one of EJ's calls and lost my ass, you folks told me not to follow blindly. But yet every other post, you smugly point out that EJ and Itulip have all ready figured it all out.

SO which is it Metalman? Or Should people just stop posting articles, because EJ figured it all out in 2001 waaaaay before they did.

Amen

Cindy

[Mashuri]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

a dozen articles on itulip say the same... starting around 2001...

Door Number Two - iTulip.com

Reflation without Representation - iTulip.com

Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble

etc, etc, etc...

Yup. I read all of those. Moore's article still helped to paint a better picture for me.

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

So Metalman should we just take EJ and Itulip for gospel now? Funny thing is when I followed one of EJ's calls and lost my ass, you folks told me not to follow blindly. But yet every other post, you smugly point out that EJ and Itulip have all ready figured it all out.

SO which is it Metalman? Or Should people just stop posting articles, because EJ figured it all out in 2001 waaaaay before they did.

i'm metalman & i'm stupid.

when itulip said in 2001 'gold is cheap' & 'will go up for reasons a, b, & c" it did not say... 'hey, stupid. go buy gold'. that was for stupid to figure out.

the 193 articles since then that said 'no bubble' & 'no bubble' & 'no bubble' did not tell stupid 'don't sell the gold you bought'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip says in 2002 housing is a bubble but will not crash for years, it does not say 'buy housing & sell it when we call a it over'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip said 'it's a top' in housing in jun 2006 it did not say 'hey, stupid. time to sell housing'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip says 'time to short stocks' in dec 2007 then i short. else i do not short. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

when itulip says 'time to commercial real estate' in jun 2008 then i short. else i do not short. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

when itulip says 'the stock market will fall 20% - 30% before end of 2009' i do not short because it does not say 'time to short'. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

see... you never get these calls over and over... only once. no stopped clock. pretty useful, i'd say, even if you're stupid like me.

i like the calls itulip has never made...

has itulip ever said 'time to short treasury bonds'?

no.

has itulip ever said 'time to short china'?

no. it asked 'is china a bubble'. not enough conviction for me to short china.

but that's me, because i'm stupid.

wish i was smarter, but i'm not.

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

i'm metalman & i'm stupid.

when itulip said in 2001 'gold is cheap' & 'will go up for reasons a, b, & c" it did not say... 'hey, stupid. go buy gold'. that was for stupid to figure out.

the 193 articles since then that said 'no bubble' & 'no bubble' & 'no bubble' did not tell stupid 'don't sell the gold you bought'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip says in 2002 housing is a bubble but will not crash for years, it does not say 'buy housing & sell it when we call a it over'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip said 'it's a top' in housing in jun 2006 it did not say 'hey, stupid. time to sell housing'. that was for stupid to figure out.

when itulip says 'time to short stocks' in dec 2007 then i short. else i do not short. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

when itulip says 'time to commercial real estate' in jun 2008 then i short. else i do not short. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

when itulip says 'the stock market will fall 20% - 30% before end of 2009' i do not short because it does not say 'time to short'. but that's me, because i'm stupid.

see... you never get these calls over and over... only once. no stopped clock. pretty useful, i'd say, even if you're stupid like me.

i like the calls itulip has never made...

has itulip ever said 'time to short treasury bonds'?

no.

has itulip ever said 'time to short china'?

no. it asked 'is china a bubble'. not enough conviction for me to short china.

but that's me, because i'm stupid.

wish i was smarter, but i'm not.

Metalman did your read the ej post about a massive drop in stocks in late 2009: I believe it was something like Down down to 6500 in the fall or something like that. Check google for us.

It didnt happen and anbody who shorted got creamed

Cindy

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Yup. I read all of those. Moore's article still helped to paint a better picture for me.

moore's article is good history, if you like history. as an investor i prefer to know the thing before it happens... say, 2 yrs or 8 yrs before it happens... but that's just me. as i've said, i'm stupid.

[cindykimlisa]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

moore's article is good history, if you like history. as an investor i prefer to know the thing before it happens... say, 2 yrs or 8 yrs before it happens... but that's just me. as i've said, i'm stupid.

Well heres is one for the record metal man

In the next two to eight years gold will go up and down and the stock market dow will go up and down.

Cindy

[marvenger]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

maybe just codependent

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Well heres is one for the record metal man

In the next two to eight years gold will go up and down and the stock market dow will go up and down.

Cindy

how should I know?

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

maybe just codependent

[LargoWinch]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Metalman did your read the ej post about a massive drop in stocks in late 2009: I believe it was something like Down down to 6500 in the fall or something like that. Check google for us.

It didnt happen and anbody who shorted got creamed

Cindy

Cindy, I am not sure to understand, but did you short and "got creamed" with the money you made and saved from this call or perhaps this call by iTulip?

You appear to suffers from tunnel vision and demonstrates short memory in addition to your lack of knowledge of iTulip's past work.

Now, please understand that no one will be perfect over 10+ years of forecasting. Despite their amazing track record, note that EJ and the iTulip folks are one of the few who can admit their mishaps such as the S&P bear call of 2009 (again google is your friend, but I will make it easy for you: click here or here.). So tell me, oh Cindy, do you know many forecasters that are this honest and transparent about their past calls and/or past mistakes?

More importantly, the following questions comes to mind: what do you recommend? who do think has a better track record than iTulip and can you prove it? Lastly, who do you think is ultimately responsible for the financial decisions you make?

[metalman]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

Metalman did your read the ej post about a massive drop in stocks in late 2009: I believe it was something like Down down to 6500 in the fall or something like that. Check google for us.

It didnt happen and anbody who shorted got creamed

Cindy

yep... but did not say 'time to short'... so i didn't... impressed me as academic... hypothetical... like a cramer 'idea'. but as i say... i'm stupid & wimpy. what do i know?

[stanley2008]

Re: When Deflation = Inflation

yep... but did not say 'time to short'... so i didn't... impressed me as academic... hypothetical... like a cramer 'idea'. but as i say... i'm stupid & wimpy. what do i know?

I used to actively search for your posts Metalman, but lately it is as if you have become a commissar for EJ. I don't know where your objectivity and rationality has gone, itulip is the poorer for it.

Metal, has EJ made ANY bad calls on itulip? Has he written anything here that he was mistaken about? If you think so please put it in a post, maybe the exercise will help you regain some perspective.

To help you along here are 2 quotes from EJ , who is smart enough to know that everybody makes mistakes, and humble enough to admit it, unlike some other itulip members.

"In retrospect, I should have stuck to the original DJIA Debt Deflation Bear Market re-inflation rally target of 10,000 made in Jan. 2008, rather than trying to second-guess myself later." (This refers to his call on the SP500 )

"Listening to Grantham, it occurred to me as it has from time to time since mid-year that I did my readers a disservice by not encouraging them to dive back into the stock market at the panic point in March 2009 as Grantham did." (Disservice ?!?! Disservice !?!! It is not the first word that comes to mind when I think of what to call a missed 60% rise in the SP500)