Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

[hellstan]

Yes : 17, 3 %.

It's all there :

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Yes : 17, 3 %.

It's all there :

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Hmmm... maybe it's not all there :rolleyes:. It says "as a percent of civilian workforce." How much have they shrunk that figure, the size of the civilian workforce, even as our adult population increases?

[hellstan]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Alright, I'll let it at 27,3 % and don't nit:eek:pick anymore, please.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

From the bls - Civilian labor force

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Series Id: LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status: Civilian labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1999	139003	138967	138730	138959	139107	139329	139439	139430	139622	139771	140025	140177
2000	142267(1)	142456	142434	142751	142388	142591	142278	142514	142518	142622	142962	143248
2001	143800	143701	143924	143569	143318	143357	143654	143284	143989	144086	144240	144305
2002	143883	144653	144481	144725	144938	144808	144803	145009	145552	145314	145041	145066
2003	145937(1)	146100	146022	146474	146500	147056	146485	146445	146530	146716	147000	146729
2004	146842(1)	146709	146944	146850	147065	147460	147692	147564	147415	147793	148162	148059
2005	148029(1)	148364	148391	148926	149261	149238	149432	149779	149954	150001	150065	150030
2006	150201(1)	150629	150839	150915	151085	151368	151383	151729	151650	152020	152360	152698
2007	153117(1)	152941	153093	152531	152717	153045	153039	152781	153393	153158	153767	153869
2008	154048(1)	153600	153966	153936	154420	154327	154410	154696	154590	154849	154524	154587
2009	154140(1)	154401	154164	154718	154956	154759	154351	154426	153927	153854	153720	153059
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Also Telegraph article - America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels - December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.

The labour force contracted by 661,000. This did not show up in the headline jobless rate because so many Americans dropped out of the system. The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc. That is the one that matters.

Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism.

The home foreclosure guillotine usually drops a year or so after people lose their job, and exhaust their savings. The local sheriff will escort them out of the door, often with some sympathy –– just like the police in 1932, mostly Irish Catholics who tithed 1pc of their pay for soup kitchens.

Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.

Judges are finding ways to block evictions. One magistrate in Minnesota halted a case calling the creditor "harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive". We are not far from a de facto moratorium in some areas.

This is how it ended between 1932 and 1934, when half the US states declared moratoria or "Farm Holidays". Such flexibility innoculated America's democracy against the appeal of Red Unions and Coughlin Fascists. The home siezures are occurring despite frantic efforts by the Obama administration to delay the process.

This policy is entirely justified given the scale of the social crisis. But it also masks the continued rot in the housing market, allows lenders to hide losses, and stores up an ever larger overhang of unsold properties. It takes heroic naivety to think the US housing market has turned the corner (apologies to Goldman Sachs, as always). The fuse has yet to detonate on the next mortgage bomb, $134bn (£83bn) of "option ARM" contracts due to reset violently upwards this year and next.

US house prices have eked out five months of gains on the Case-Shiller index, but momentum stalled in October in half the cities even before the latest surge of 40 basis points in mortgage rates. Karl Case (of the index) says prices may sink another 15pc. "If the 2008 and 2009 loans go bad, then we're back where we were before – in a nightmare."

David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said it is remarkable how little traction has been achieved by zero rates and the greatest fiscal blitz of all time. The US economy grew at a 2.2pc rate in the third quarter (entirely due to Obama stimulus). This compares to an average of 7.3pc in the first quarter of every recovery since the Second World War.

Fed hawks are playing with fire by talking up about exit strategies, not for the first time. This is what they did in June 2008. We know what happened three months later. For the record, manufacturing capacity use at 67.2pc, and "auto-buying intentions" are the lowest ever.

The Fed's own Monetary Multiplier crashed to an all-time low of 0.809 in mid-December. Commercial paper has shrunk by $280bn ($175bn) in since October. Bank credit has been racing down a hair-raising black run since June. It has dropped from $10.844 trillion to $9.013 trillion since November 25. The MZM money supply is contracting at a 3pc annual rate. Broad M3 money is contracting at over 5pc.

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the Fed is baking deflation into the pie later this year, and perhaps a double-dip recession. Europe is even worse.

This has not stopped an army of commentators is trying to bounce the Fed into early rate rises. They accuse Ben Bernanke of repeating the error of 2004 when the Fed waited too long. Sometimes you just want to scream. In 2004 there was no housing collapse, unemployment was 5.5pc, banks were in rude good health, and the Fed Multiplier was 1.73.

How anybody can see imminent inflation in the dying embers of core PCE, just 0.1pc in November, is beyond me.

Mr Rosenberg is asked by clients why Wall Street does not seem to agree with his grim analysis.

His answer is that this is the same Mr Market that bought stocks in October 1987 when they were 25pc overvalued on Shiller "10-year normalized earnings basis" – exactly as they are today – and bought them at even more overvalued prices in 2007, long after the property crash had begun, Bear Stearns funds had imploded, and credit had its August heart attack. The stock market has become a lagging indicator. Tear up the textbooks

[LargoWinch]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Alright, I'll let it at 27,3 % and don't nit:eek:pick anymore, please.

I think TPC is not "nitpicking" your post, but simply saying that you are one conservative chap hellstan.

Too bad, because I wish TPC was nitpicking here...

[MulaMan]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

"Red Unions and Coughlin Fascists."

Interesting, thanks! Coughlin Fascists? How educational.

I had not idea the Fox News fascists / Christaino-fasicts started as a radio station in the 1930s! Crazy!

Thanks FDR. Obama is not FDR. America will soon need FDR II to emerge.

*********

"A Christian Looks At the Religious Right"

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---

Father Coughlin, One of the Movement’s Early Founders

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You have seen what “free speech” over the Radio means by observing the experiences of Father Coughlin. He however, was cut off the big stations a week too late, so that the Whole Country was able to see classic proof that there is no free radio for White Men who call Bolshevism by its proper name!” German-American Bund, Feb. 20, 1939, Madison Square Garden.

Father Charles Edward Coughlin was the Catholic priest who became a national figure through his radio broadcasts in the 1930’s. Reading some of his sermons stretches the imagination to call the messages Biblically based. Coughlin had a brilliant mind but appears to have gotten bored with the church work he was so successful with. These types historically take their clergy success and seek to gain a political following. They take advantage of a religious audience and seek to steer the followers into the power bases of national politics. Coughlin’s messages appeared to have had little to do with the Christian faith later on in his ministry. They dealt with appraisals of the New Deal and how to get out of the Depression. The Father linked up with Gerald Smith and Francis Townsend to form a political party. Coughlin was personal friends with Henry Ford during Ford’s days as a rabid anti-Semite. 1

The radio preacher held a residence, and operated a religious school and church in Detroit. This community helped Coughlin to carry on his dialogues with local citizens Gerald Smith and Ford, both rabid conspiracy buffs who held that national problems resulted from Jewish-European connections. Coughlin, much like contemporary American Right leaders David Duke and E.R. Field, held the belief that Communism was a Jewish organization and battling Communism expansion meant battling against the Jewish community in America. Smith later on tried to take Coughlin’s followers on board his movement. 2

Smith’s social views are best defined by the fact he often taught followers the Fascist salute.
Clandestine writer, Roy Carlson, ran into a great number of Coughlin’s followers during his work as an under cover agent during World War II. Award winning author, Carlson, found Coughlin to be a major influence on the American Nazi movement before the war. Roy said that Coughlin was a large threat to the nation’s security. The Priest’s followers formed an organization know as the Christian Front which often advocated and resorted to violence. Protestant ministers like Gerald Winrod strangely endorsed Coughlin. Winrod, known as the Jay Hawk Nazi, found kinship with Coughlin’s Jew baiting. The Priest’s followers were a threat to Jews in the New England area. Some were even tied into a terrorist plot against the government. 3

Coughlin promised to deliver votes and at one time addressed the national Democratic Party. His popularity is subject to debate. Many credit him with being the first to use the airways to seek to blend the Christian faith with the Right. One source has his listening audience at 3.5 million while The Truth at Last organization credits his audience at 40 million. 4

The Truth at Last is a leftover of the White Citizen’s Council which sells Coughlin’s books and pamphlets for those interested in the “real truth”. How powerful the movement was is subject to scholarly debate. We do know Coughlin had the scorn and attention of President Franklin Roosevelt who suffered through the dilemma of how to deal with a subversive who was a popular radio figure and also a Catholic priest. Politicians dislike attacking the clergy for obvious reasons. Coughlin would often seek to distance himself from extremist followers but the record shows he rubbed shoulders with the Third Reich...even during World War II. Coughlin’s followers handed out pamphlets that said to have peace and prosperity each nation must kill their own Jews. 5

The Priest was more “politically correct” than this. He did, however, publicly blame the war and depression on Jews through his radio broadcasts. All social problems, according to the radio personality, had a Jewish connection. He had so many followers who listened while in the armed forces during the war some wondered out loud what could be done. The Vatican became aware of his activity and sought to censor the Priest, which, eventually came to pass. The fact that such a public figure as Priest Coughlin had formed the political movement known as the Union Party gave suspicion to the idea that Catholics did not like staying out of the government.6

Baptist Fundamentalist leader from the last century, J. Frank Norris, praised Coughlin. Like Winrod and Smith, Norris was attracted to Coughlin’s hatred of FDR. Though there is no evidence Norris was an anti-Semite, he did not denounce the Father and his far right positions. Norris believed the Fundamentalists had more in common with Coughlin than with “modernistic machine Baptists. 7

It is logical and also reported that Coughlin adhered to the peculiar theory known as British Israel. 8

This racist theory, popular in Christian Identity circles, believes Anglo Saxons are the lost tribe of Israel and people who consider themselves modern Jews are actually mixed breeds of India-Jewish offspring stock. This helps to explain the rabid anti-Semitism in the light of one being a Christian minister. Since most Christians hold Jews in high regard, believing they are peoples of the Old Testament, anti-Semitism needs a theology to go along with the racist views.
Donald Warren has done extensive research in his book, "Radio Priest". Warren dug into the life of the political figure and his book brings out incredible information many readers might find hard to believe. Warren, like others, credits Coughlin with founding modern talk radio. Coughlin ran for President at one time and Warren believes his Union Party really wanted to unseat FDR. Coughlin thought FDR was linked to an international Jewish plot. Modern Right Wing extremists believe FDR was secretly Jewish. Coughlin praised Fascists in Europe. He embraced the Fascists in Italy and sided with Spanish Fascists who thought the Masonic Lodge was behind a plot to destroy the Catholic Church. The FBI, during the war, was concerned about some of Coughlin’s followers who wanted to overthrow the government. The Priest endorsed the anti-Semitic PROTOCOLS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION. This was a book claiming to uncover secret Jewish enterprises who were behind world government failures. Coughlin, at one time, sent a message to Hitler wanting to get the German leader to claim he supported the Christian faith. Evidence suggests the Priest received Nazi funding from Germany to carry on his activities. Coughlin dies a millionaire. Depending on sources, the Priest was accused of being a womanizer on top of his “lunatic fringe” politics. Coughlin printed his own version of the Protocols to be distributed. He even justified Jewish persecution in Germany! 9

It is no surprise that the Anti-Defamation League monitored Coughlin’s programs and kept a file on the extremist. Today their website gives credit to the ADL for bringing down Coughlin by tying him to Nazi leadership through their research. 10

Other Jewish groups took Charles to task on his historical conclusions. Few Religious Right leaders would identify their movement with Coughlin today. However, historical leaders in the Religious Right pack were best friends with or chummy with the volatile leader. World War II tended to put an end to Coughlin. Some surmise Roosevelt struck a deal with the Vatican to give them an ambassador if the Pope would shut up Coughlin and his publications. The Vatican did intercede to some extent. Some questioned the Vatican’s silence during so many volumes of anti-Semitic transmissions. The Vatican had it’s own anti-Semitism charges to deal with after the war. It is noted the FDR pressured the Vatican to respond and they did not relish the idea of jumping into the censorship of their own. Donald Warren was interviewed on CSPAN and claims that even in the 1990’s some Catholic priests agreed with Coughlin and his anti-Semitism. 11

Father Coughlin claimed that ancient Popes forbade public appointments of Jews because Jews, it was believed, were bitterly hostile to Christians. The Catholic Priest published "Social Justice Magazine" which had a circulation of 9,000 with 220 employees. His justification of his views towards Jews was established by his belief that Jews founded Communism. 12

He denied that he was an anti-Semite and claimed to denounce Fascism by his own word. He simply believed he spoke the truth and behind the Depression, war and social problems in the Western world was a secret group of Jews. To Coughlin, exposing their great evil supplanted his calling to expand the church. Some coin him the founder of the modern Religious Right movement. His tactics of seeking to blend the Christian faith with modern Right Wing ideologies is akin to what takes place in our own time. It is a sad reminder that future generations will see much of what passes off as Christian ethics through the movement to be as unfashionable as Coughlin’s beliefs.


Endnotes
1. Gerald Smith, “An Open Letter”, CROSS AND FLAG, Dec.1952, pg. 3.
2. Glen Jeansonne, GERALD SMITH MINISTER OF HATE, Yale Univ. Press, New Haven 1988, pg. 62.
3. Roy Carlson, UNDER COVER, p.p Ditton, N.Y., N.Y., 1943, pgs. 27, 58,172.
4. Gustavus Myers, A HISTORY OF BIGOTRY IN THE UNITED STATES, Random House, N.Y., N.Y., 1993, pg. 444.
5. Ibid. pg. 462
6. Michael Barkun, RELIGION AND THE RACIST RIGHT, Univ. of N.C. Press, Chapel Hill, N.C. 1994, pg. 96.
7. Barry Hankins, GOD’S RASCAL, Univ. Press of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, 1996. Pg.163
8. YOUR INHERITANCE, Sacred Truth Ministries, Mountain City, Tenn. 1993, Pg. 163.
9. Donald Warren, RADIO PRIEST, The Free Press, N.Y., N.Y., 1996. Pgs. 28, 77, 83, 84, 102, 120, 125, 150, 156, 181, 233, 292.
10. http://www.adlorg/2001.
11. CSPAN, Booknotes, Sept. 8, 1996.
12. FATHER COUGHLIN ANSWERS HIS CRITICS, The Truth at Last, Marietta, Ga. Pgs. 1, 84.

http://www.livingston.net/wilkyjr/link31.htm

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

From the bls - Civilian labor force

Cool - thanks, Rajiv. The graph from that same webpage shows this as well:


Yup - labor force size is declining. We have more able bodied adults, but fewer of them counted as in the labor force. Looks like yet another way to soft pedal the extent of the labor market decline.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

I think TPC is not "nitpicking" your post, but simply saying that you are one conservative chap hellstan.

My take is that hellstan was teasing me in good humor .

[Rajiv]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

I had included that graph in there -- but ah! the perils of deep linking! Modified the link and see if that works any better!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

I had included that graph in there -- but ah! the perils of deep linking! Modified the link and see if that works any better!

Aha - right you are. Thanks for the alert.

Those same perils neutered my display of the graph as well, so I just edited my post to use a copy of the graph image that I uploaded as an attachment to iTulip. I still can't see the image on your post. I presume it is still a victim of deep linking.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Yes : 17, 3 %.

Here's a good summary of these results, quoting David Rosenberg via a post of Stephen Lendman at The Recession Is Over - The Depression Just Beginning.

In his January 5 commentary, David Rosenberg notes that "Sentiment is wildly bullish....almost every survey is overwhelmingly constructive," yet reviewing 2009's market performance in the face of economic fundamentals "almost wants to make you believe in the tooth fairy." He explained that "small business (still faces) a credit quagmire," there's no housing recovery, and household spending is retrenching and hunkering down for the long haul.

The latest US nonfarm payroll report provides more confirmation. Although the headline number was a modestly anemic -85,000, Rosenberg called it "horrible" because its details showed consistent weakness. As a result, he estimates a more accurate "465,000" December decline, based on what's occurring at the small company level "where the trend in orders, output, sales and employment" has been dismal.

Importantly, economic sectors sensitive to the business cycle actually "cratered" in December, "which flies in the face of the overwhelming view that this recession has fully run its course." Also disturbing was that while "temp help" gained 47,000 jobs, its fifth straight increase, full-time employment "plunged" 647,000 last month, a clear sign that no one is hiring, especially small businesses that do most of it.

The reason headline U-3 unemployment held steady at 10% was because the labor force plunged by 661,000, the sharpest (discouraged worker) decline in nearly 15 years. The broader U-6 unemployment is 17.3%, and economist John Williams (shadowstats.com) calculates it more accurately at 21.9% by excluding manipulated changes for more valid figures. He estimates about 500,000 December job losses, not the sanitized U-3 number. He also says that a "major double-dip downturn should be obvious by mid-year."

[Rajiv]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

From the Steven Lendman article After talking about the fiscal crisis in the states -- he says

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One state alone stands out in the current environment, North Dakota, with its governor, John Hoeven calling a December 15 news conference to explain that the state has so much money (a $1.3 billion FY 2009 surplus, its largest ever) that individuals and businesses will average $650 in 2009 tax savings from income and property tax cuts enacted by its legislature. In addition, seniors and disabled people who own property or rent will get additional savings from an expanded Homestead Property Tax program.

According to Tax Commissioner Cory Fong:

North Dakota has been able to weather the economic crisis. "While other state governors and legislatures are looking for ways to raise revenue through raising taxes and cutting services, we just came through a historic session of funding both our important priorities and substantial tax relief....The winners are families, businesses and the State of North Dakota," because it's unique in one important respect.

It's the only one with a state-owned bank (The Bank of North Dakota - BND) that sustains its distinctiveness and strength. As a result, it had the nation's lowest unemployment rate of 4.1 at year end 2009 and created jobs throughout the crisis.

Established in 1919, it's been a "credit machine" ever since, according to financial writer Ellen Brown, delivering "sound financial services that promote agriculture, commerce and industry," something no other state can match because they don't have state-owned banks.

With one, BND "create(s) 'credit' with accounting entries on (its) books" through fractional reserve banking that multiplies each deposited amount magically about tenfold in the form of loans or computer-generated funds. As a result, the bank can re-lend many times over, and the more deposits, the greater amount of it for sustained, productive growth. If all states owned public banks, they'd be as prosperous as North Dakota and be able to rebate taxes and expand public services, not extract more or cut them.

Brown explains that the BND:

"chiefly acts as a central bank, with functions similar to those of a branch of the Federal Reserve," that's neither federal or has reserves as is owned by major private banks in each of the 12 Fed districts, New York by far the most dominant with Wall Street's majority control and a Fed chairman doing its bidding.

In contrast, BND is a public bank, 100% owned by the state, operating in the public interest and those of the state. It "avoids rivalry with private banks by partnering with them." Local banks do most lending. "The BND then comes in to participate in the loan, share risk, buy down the interest rate and buy up loans, thereby freeing up banks to lend more. (One of its functions) is to provide a secondary market for real estate loans, which it buys from local banks. Its residential loan portfolio is now $500 to $600 billion" in a state with around 700,000 people and thriving.

Its function in the property market helped it "avoid the credit crisis that afflicted Wall Street when the secondary market for loans collapsed in late 2007 and helped it reduce its foreclosure rate....(Its other services) include guarantees for entrepreneurial startups and student loans, the purchase of municipal bonds from public institutions, and a well-funded disaster loan program." When the state didn't meet its budget "a few years ago, the BND met the shortfall."

In sum, state-owned banks have "enormous advantages over smaller private institutions....Their asset bases are not marred by oversized salaries and bonuses, they have no shareholders" demanding high returns, and they don't speculate in derivatives or other high-risk investments. As a result, BND is healthy with a 25% return on equity, paying "a hefty dividend to the state projected at over $60 million in 2009" and well over five times that amount in the last decade, so it begs the question why other states don't operate the same way. If enough of their residents demanded it, they might and not suffer the way nearly all of them are today, two notably - California and Michigan.
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Also North Dakota's unemployment rate



Also North Dakota U-6 is less than 7%

[WildspitzE]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

Yes : 17, 3 %.

It's all there :

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

In a couple of other threads I've mentioned the census. I believe it will be used this year to manufacture jobs like never before.

I mentioned it to a business partner in nyc, and he told me that he saw two census recruiters in his super market out in long island: offering census jobs at $18/per hour.

$18/hr to do paperwork? Sheesh. The hell with being skilled labor.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real unemployment ? 17,3 %

$18 per hour may seem like a lot today, but see my post in Nov 2008

In 1974, the minimum wage was $2.00 per hour. Graduate Assistant pay ~ 3.25 time minimum wage = $6.50 per hour

If minimum wage kept up with CPI

BLS min wage $8.75 ergo Grad Asst pay = $28.44

CPI+lies min wage ~ $20 ergo Grad Asst pay = $65

Graduate Asst pay today $16.50 per hour

So wages have not kept up with either official inflation or true inflation
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Just looked again at Shadowstats, and the numbers look even worse

CPI+lies min wage ~ $27.20 per hour ergo Grad Asst pay = $85 per hour

compared to $16-18 todays pay for graduate assistants