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Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

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  • Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

    Jesse was wrong, but only because he expected a repeat and not a rhyme...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Econom...n&asset=&ccode=

    Note the 929,000 'discouraged' workers...

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery and keeping pressure on President Barack Obama to find ways to spur job growth.
    The Labor Department said on Friday that November payrolls were revised to show the economy actually added 4,000 jobs rather than losing 11,000 as initially reported, breaking a streak of consecutive losses that dates back to December 2007.
    With revisions to October, however, the economy lost 1,000 more jobs than previously estimated over the two months.
    The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10 percent in December, but that reflected a surprisingly large number of people leaving the labor force.
    Analysts polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm payrolls to hold steady last month, with the jobless rate edging up to 10.1 percent.
    "The economy continues to take three steps forward and two steps back. I wouldn't read too much into it beyond the fact that this will be a slow employment recovery. Directionally, the economy is on a mend," said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York.
    U.S. stock opened marginally lower, while the dollar fell against the euro and government bond prices erased losses as the report dashed hopes among some that the economy was now generating jobs.
    U.S. short-term interest rate futures pared losses as investors bet that the weak labor market would keep inflation tame and encourage the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates near zero for a long time.
    Euro-zone unemployment jumped to an 11-year high in November, and is likely to rise more in the coming year.
    "The American economy is clearly not going to burst out of the gate with growth and job creation but it will perform better than its major competitors in Europe and Japan," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions in Ridgewood, New Jersey.
    POLITICAL PRESSURES MOUNTS
    High unemployment is one of the toughest domestic challenges facing Obama. The administration's success in getting people back to work will shape prospects for Obama's political future.
    Obama's popularity has steadily fallen, knocking his approval ratings down to around 50 percent. This could dim the election prospects for his Democratic Party in the November congressional elections. Obama is scheduled to make a statement on the economy at 2:40 p.m. EST.
    "We're going to have to work harder to create more jobs," U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis told Bloomberg TV. "The president will outline more tax credits for small business because they are the engine of growth."
    Unemployment remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery, which started in the third quarter of 2009 following the worst recession in 70 years. Creating jobs is critical to sustaining the economic recovery when government stimulus fades.
    For the whole of 2009, the economy shed 4.2 million jobs, according to the Labor Department's survey of employers.
    The department's survey of households offered an even gloomier assessment of the job market, showing that 661,000 people left the work force last month.
    The report showed there were 929,000 "discouraged workers" who had given up looking for a job, up from 642,000 a year earlier. Chris Rupkey, an economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the rise in discouraged workers "a simply astonishing number that borders on the frightening."
    "If they were still looking for work and counted as the unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 10.5 percent," he said. "This clearly isn't your father's recession. It is looking more like your great-grandfathers. Brother, can you spare a dime?"
    The broadest measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, rose to 17.3 percent from 17.2 percent in the prior month.
    Still, the payrolls report, which is viewed by most economists as the more reliable gauge of the labor market's health, suggested a broad trend toward improvement was still intact.
    Professional and business services added 50,000 positions, while education and health services increased payrolls by 35,000.
    Temporary help employment rose 47,000, continuing an upward trend that shows a reluctance among employers to hire full-time workers but that suggests they may need to soon.
    Manufacturing payrolls fell 27,000 after dropping 35,000 in November. The construction sector lost 53,000 jobs, while the service-providing sector shed only 4,000 workers.
    The average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by $18.80 from $18.77 in November.
    The state of the job market is among the key factors that will determine the timing of the Fed's first interest rate increase since cutting benchmark overnight borrowing costs to near zero percent in December 2008. The U.S. central bank has vowed to keep rates low for an extended period.
    This can mean several things:

    1) Unemployment is so bad that even the normal machinations aren't working
    2) Some other play is in motion: a minor 'double dip' to allow more ridiculous TARP-like or 'health reform' bills to be passed.

  • #2
    Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

    Manufacturing payrolls fell 27,000 after dropping 35,000 in November.
    I watched Fox News for 10 minutes today, which was enough to catch one of the hilarious hosts mentioning this as a possible hint of good things to come in the manufacturing sector.

    I've been applying for jobs recently in Mass and did land one. But there isn't much out there. Almost every company that I talked to said the same thing in November and December. "We're treading water and just hoping not to have cut back any more staff, not hiring at this time."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

      I have been compiling the bureau's own numbers in a different light for the last six months, as the raw u-3 number normally broadcast is misleading.
      I like to look at the number of people employed and their wages, because in essence we have to think about cash flow that is available to service the debts we have. No job, or job with bad pay = lower cash flow to service debts, buy stuff, save etc.


      I track
      1) % population employed 58% dec down, down every month since june.
      2) num employed 138M, dec down, down every month since june
      3) total employed x weekly wages 86B, dec up, flat since june.
      4) u6 17.1%, dec up, flat since june.
      5) employment duration. 20.2, dec steady, up since june.

      Not pretty.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

        obama ... congress, fed .... are going to fix this??

        if you are an evil capitalist with a few million dollars in your matress are you going to put them to work?

        1) health care, what will the final product be, how much is it going to cost me as a small business person ??? good or bad, don't know. This is a major cost of employment.

        2) rising oil and raw material costs.

        3) EPA tightening the screws. cap and trade.

        4) existing plants and equipment not operating at capacity.

        5) New tax rates coming, will they be applied to S-corps, corporations?

        6) Oh and by the way, the states are doing the same thing.

        To me they have filled the future with uncertainty for business.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

          i'm an evil capitalist and I would NOT CONSIDER putting money into a new
          business at the present time. I thought the US was over-regulated in the
          past, but with the crap the DemocRats are pushing down the pipeline now,
          WHY would I want to put capital at risk??? Better to buy gold.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

            Shahien Nasiripour's take on the numbers - 1 in 5 Working-Age American Men Don't Have A Job

            One in five working-age American men does not have a job, according to the latest federal employment numbers, an all-time high that illustrates the extraordinary toll this recession has taken on male-dominated professions in particular.

            Men are more likely to work in sectors like manufacturing and construction that are more sensitive to economic downturns. But this downturn has been particularly brutal on those industries, leading some observers to call it a "mancession."

            Only 80.3 percent of men age 25-54 had jobs in December -- the lowest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started collecting that data in 1948 -- at which point the figure was 94.4 percent. When the recession began in December 2007, less than 13 percent of men in this age bracket were out of work.

            The numbers are derived from what the BLS calls its employment-to-population ratio. While the non-working number in this case includes men who have voluntarily chosen to stay out of the workforce, such as students and stay-at-home dads, in many ways it provides a clearer picture of the depth of the nation's unemployment situation.

            The percentage of women age 25-54 who have work is also down, but not as dramatically. Some 69.1 percent of those women are employed, about the same as in 1998. Women dominate the fields such as education, health services and government. The health industry and government payrolls are booming, and are expected to continue growing, thanks to an aging population and recently-enacted stimulus programs to boost the economy, respectively.

            Overall, the percentage of Americans over age 16 that holds a job continues to slide, reaching 58.2 percent. That's a 25-year-low.

            "It is striking that we have managed to reverse more than 26 years of increasing labor force participation in this downturn," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It will take a long time for workers to get over the effects of this recession."

            The official unemployment rate, which doesn't include people who are underemployed or who have given up looking for work, remained at 10 percent.

            According to the BLS, employers nationwide shed an additional 85,000 jobs in December. Analysts had predicted a decline of just 10,000 jobs.

            The extent of the job losses indicates that the optimism generated by last month's slight dip in the unemployment rate (from 10.2 to 10 percent) may have been unfounded. Revised figures released today show an actual increase of 4,000 jobs in November - but that's now been offset 20 times over in December.

            More than 6.3 million people are looking for jobs, according to the new figures, a 14 percent increase from December 2008.

            Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, points out that 1.9 million workers have left the labor force since May. These are people who are either seeking work or working. More than 660,000 workers left the labor force between November and December alone.

            "Absent this flight from the labor market the unemployment rate would have risen substantially in December, up 0.4 percent, rather than hold steady," he said in an e-mail.

            Mishel also notes that the population has grown, which should have led to a rise in the labor force. Instead, just the opposite has happened. He writes:
            Over the last year, the working age population grew by 0.8 percent, so we would have expected a growth in the labor force, those working or seeking work, by 1.2 million people. Instead, the labor force fell 1.5 million, indicating that the labor force is missing 2.7 million people, more than half of whom abandoned the labor force. The erosion of the labor force started occurring after May, with 271,000 withdrawing each month for the last seven months. Two-thirds of those fleeing the labor market since May have been adult men.
            Visit this link for a deeper dive into the numbers.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
              Jesse was wrong, but only because he expected a repeat and not a rhyme...

              http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Econom...n&asset=&ccode=

              Note the 929,000 'discouraged' workers...



              This can mean several things:

              1) Unemployment is so bad that even the normal machinations aren't working
              2) Some other play is in motion: a minor 'double dip' to allow more ridiculous TARP-like or 'health reform' bills to be passed.
              Oh, it gets better...much better...:rolleyes:
              From the BLS:

              January 8, 2010

              Payroll survey benchmark revisions

              Benchmark revisions are a standard part of the payroll survey estimation process. The benchmark revision represents a once-a-year re-anchoring of the sample-based employment estimates to full employment counts primarily available through unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that
              nearly all employers are required to file with State Employment Security Agencies.


              Following standard BLS methodology, the sample-based estimate for the month of March is replaced by the March UI-based employment level and estimates for the 12 months preceding and the months following the March benchmark reference month are recalculated.

              Estimates for the 12 months preceding the March benchmark are recalculated by wedging back the difference between the UIbased employment level and the sample-based estimate: 1/12 of the difference is applied to April of the prior year, 2/12 to May, and so forth, through February of the benchmark year which receives 11/12 of the difference.

              Estimates for April of the benchmark year forward are recalculated by applying the over-the-month changes from the sample to the new benchmark level, along with recomputed net birth/death factors. (See “New business births” below.)

              The payroll survey’s most recent benchmark—to March 2008 employment records—resulted in a downward revision of 89,000 (17,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis), or about -0.1 percent of total nonfarm employment.

              The average benchmark revision over the past decade has been plus or minus 0.2 percent. Detailed information about this and previous benchmarks can be found on the
              BLS website at
              http://www.bls.gov/ces/tables.htm#benchmark.

              The preliminary estimate of the next benchmark revision is for a downward adjustment of 824,000, or 0.6 percent of total nonfarm employment, for the March 2009 reference month. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into the payroll survey with the publication of January
              2010 data on February 5, 2010.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                Jesse was wrong, but only because he expected a repeat and not a rhyme...

                http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Econom...n&asset=&ccode=

                Note the 929,000 'discouraged' workers...



                This can mean several things:

                1) Unemployment is so bad that even the normal machinations aren't working
                2) Some other play is in motion: a minor 'double dip' to allow more ridiculous TARP-like or 'health reform' bills to be passed.
                From the Calculated Risk blog:

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                  everyone bend over and get ready for Stimulus II...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                    Also, Nate at Economic Edge had this to say

                    Employment Situation in Charts – A Walk Back in Time…


                    “Subprime is Fully Contained…”

                    Remember all these brilliant forecasts and observations from Time’s Man of the Year?






                    At 1:17, “I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.”

                    And we have experts who say time and again, “Don’t fight the Fed?” Give me a break. I will take the other side of the Fed any day. To say that they don’t know what they are talking about or doing is the understatement of the century.

                    Debt saturation is the point where attempting to put more debt into the system results only in future defaults. Once it is reached, it also results in higher unemployment. In other words, debt or leverage helps to grow employment up until the point that saturation is reached, and then it begins to work in the opposite direction because debt service prohibits real growth. Each new up cycle produces more debt, recession follows, clears out the debt and allows growth to resume. But when you interrupt the debt clearing process, real growth cannot resume as incomes cannot support more debt and therefore cannot support more employment.

                    Here’s what your government is doing in terms of debt. They do not understand the connection between this chart and the unemployment charts:



                    The following chart from Calculated Risk shows the current employment recession in comparison to all the others since the Great Depression. Did Bernanke see this coming?



                    Bernanke’s own Fed produces the following charts. I’m assuming he has access, what do you think?

                    Here is the population of the U.S., it is growing at about 1% per year, a pretty straight line. But note that even that very small growth rate over time led to a doubling of the population since only 1950:



                    Despite the increase in population, the civilian labor force is falling sharply as this chart shows that the change from one year ago is a fall of nearly 1.5 million people:



                    The Civilian Participation rate, in total numbers despite the growth in population, is falling sharply and is now back to where we were in 1984. The rise in this chart from the mid-sixties to peak was largely due to women entering the workplace. Considering the rise in the population, this is quite an unwind:



                    The following chart shows the change in Civilian Employment from one year ago. Still nearly 6 million have lost their jobs in the past year. What is that claim about making jobs from Obama and his administration? Are they being truthful?



                    The total number of counted unemployed has risen to over 15 million:



                    Those unemployed 27 weeks or longer continues its meteoric rise:



                    The Median Duration of Unemployment gave the greenshoots crowd a headfake and is now rocketing higher. At no time in modern recorded history have these figures been higher:



                    Amazingly, All Employees of Goods Producing Industries, this is all goods producing industries, now employ the same number of people as we did in the year 1943. This is the actual number of people who make everything in the U.S.! This number is despite the fact that the population has more than doubled since that time! Yes, we are more productive, but we are importing way more than we export. Our economy is completely out of balance and that’s because our economy is based on the printing of financial engineered products, not on real products. Can these trends continue? Can we be a nation that produces nothing but paper while we all consume real things made in other parts of the world?



                    Total employees in all Manufacturing is now back to the same number as in 1941:



                    All Employees producing Non Durable Goods has not been lower since this chart began in 1938 near the height of the Great Depression. That’s right, our population has more than doubled and we employ fewer people making durable goods now than then. Do you feel like you’re living in a truly prosperous country knowing that? Think we will retain our wealth on that path? Did you know that Boeing, one of the largest manufacturers and exporters in America took in only 1 order in 2009 for every 10 they had in 2008? That’s a 90% loss in aircraft orders in just one year. That’s all history, though, right? We’re looking ahead to the future and it’s all good, buy stocks!



                    The number of employees now working in Construction jobs is back to the mid-nineties. Not so bad right? Well, when presented in the amount of year over year change, Employees in Construction recently set a new record low comparable to the losses experienced in the early 1940s:



                    So, in what area are we proficient at creating jobs? Oh yeah, I remember now… Comrade.



                    Do we dare look at all the money sloshing around? Because, you know, hyperinflation is imminent and all…

                    Remember debt saturation? My common sense says, and I challenge anyone to dispute this, that when an entity is saturated with debt and they get their hands on new money, they MUST use that money to service their prior debts! This is what brings the Velocity of money to a stand still, yet debt is not even a function in the economist’s formula for velocity. Related is the money multiplier which is an indication of the leverage the banks are able to create. Not much:



                    Now, remember that all money, except coins, are brought into this system as someone else’s debt obligation. When you reach saturation and incomes can no longer support more debt, then pushing newly created money/debt into the system accomplishes NOTHING. It simply makes a round trip into a debtors hands and circles right back to the bank to pay off a prior debt. No velocity, no motion in the money, no motion in the real economy.

                    In fact, we are so saturated with debt that pushing new debt into the system actually is negative to GDP growth! Each dollar of new debt SUBTACTS 15 cents from GDP!



                    The U.S. Treasury needs to roll $2+ Trillion this year! Think about that.

                    And now we know that Bernanke is talking about ending support programs. Everyone knows that should he pull the support that the markets will not stay up on their own. Many experts doubt he really means it and that he’ll find a way to force more debt into the system. That will not be a good thing, for sure! If he tries, he will simply push to the point that he finds the limits of government debt and he will irreparably damage the United States, as he already has. We have entrusted our nation to a group of fools who don’t even realize, I think, that they are beholden to thieves. They are so beholden that they lie, and manipulate to keep the money flowing for their master oligarchs.

                    What are Institutional Money funds doing? Running for the exits:



                    Sure, government debt is growing gangbusters. Take a look at what’s happening with Commercial and Industrial Loans on a year over year change basis expressed in billions of dollars:



                    And here’s the Total Loans and Leases at all Commercial Banks:



                    Real Estate loan creation negative for the first time since the Great Depression. The GSE’s now have their hand in 9 out of 10 residential home loans. What would this look like without that?



                    Consumer Loans are now falling at just under a 20% year over year clip:



                    Yes, the Fed’s foot is letting off the gas. M1 is now declining rapidly from its peak in terms of year over year change:



                    Same goes for M2:



                    And although our government doesn’t track M3, the largest money measurement, John Williams at Shadowstats does. According to him, total M3 is now DOWN year over year:



                    Let’s see… do you remember when they said that there was no housing bubble? Then they said not to worry, subprime was all contained? How about when they were talking about “greenshoots?” And now what are they saying? That the recession is over and we’re off to infinity? Riiight, play us some more… funky white boy.
                    Last edited by Rajiv; March 05, 2010, 06:53 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                      A hilarious video:
                      The Unemployment Game Show: Are You Really Unemployed?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                        don't you worry.... i bet the govt is going to hire every unemployed person for the 2010 census. you watch.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                          Robert Reich on the numbers - The Bad Job Numbers and the Secret Second Stimulus

                          The Labor Department reports that 85,000 jobs were lost in December. The official rate of unemployment (which measures how many people are looking for jobs) held steady at 10 percent nonetheless. That's because so many more people have stopped looking. Reportedly, 661,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force last month, deciding there was no hope of finding a job. Had they continued to look, the official unemployment rate would have been 10.4 percent.

                          These statistics mask an even more troubling reality. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, around 8 million jobs have been lost. But this doesn't include all the people who, in a growing national population, would have entered the labor market had there been jobs for them. These "never entereds" amount to an estimated 2.5 million. So, in truth, the national economy is down by 10.6 million jobs overall. There's no way to make this up for years.

                          The most painful political truth for Democrats is the nation won't possibly be out of this jobs hole by the presidential election of 2012, even if the recovery is vigorous. Do the math. In order to get out of the hole, we'd need an average monthly increase of 400,000 jobs between now and then. But even at the peak of the 1990s jobs boom, the highest we ever got was 280,000 jobs a month. At the peak of the last recovery, in 2005, we got no higher than 212,000 jobs a month. Bottom line: Obama will be going into an election year with a higher total level of unemployment than before the Great Recession. He will have to argue that, were it not for his policies, things would be even worse. Counter-factuals like this do not sit well on bumper stickers.

                          Almost 40 percent of the jobless have been without work for over six months. That's a record. People who have been out of the labor force for more than six months have a particularly hard time getting back in. Many never do.

                          What worries me most about all this is the trend line. If we were coming out of a recession with any potential strength in the job market, we'd at least see growth in the length of the average workweek. But there's no sign of any growth. The average workweek held steady in December at 33.2 hours. Employers aren't even giving their own workers more hours.

                          Big American companies are more profitable, to be sure. But there's a massive disconnect between profitability and employment. Companies are increasing profits by cutting their costs (including payrolls), outsourcing more jobs abroad, and selling more abroad. But American workers -- and, therefore, American consumers -- are still stuck in a deep recession.

                          Only two things are keeping unemployment from rising more: The stimulus package, which is approaching its peak spending; and the Fed, which continues to keep a loose rein on the money supply and buy up mortgage-backed securities. After December's discouraging job's report, don't expect the Fed to tighten any time soon -- probably not until after the middle of 2010, at the earliest.

                          What about fiscal policy? A second stimulus? Yes, to this extent: Democrats are looking into the cross-hairs of a mid-term election that won't be pretty, to say the least. Pelosi has to hold on to 40 seats. In the Senate, Dodd's and Dorgan's departures pose a huge problem. Without 60 reliable votes, the Senate Democrats won't be able to do much of anything. Rarely in history have the Republicans in both chambers been so relentlessly united. The dismal jobs picture makes Republicans salivate over 2010 and 2012. Democrats know they have to do something to show voters they're focused on jobs. A victory on health care won't cut it.

                          So expect the Democrats to move toward more spending -- more unemployment benefits, more cash for clunkers, more help for small businesses, maybe a new jobs tax credit. A larger defense budget will also be part of the stimulus. But don't expect any of this to be dressed up as a "second stimulus package." That would give Republicans too much ammunition to attack Dems as big spenders and try to focus the public's attention on the widening deficit and growing federal debt.

                          The truth, of course, is that the most important fiscal indicator is the ratio of the debt to the GDP. And the most important issue there is how quickly America can get jobs back and the GDP growing again. More spending in the short term is the only way to accelerate a jobs recovery, and reduce the debt-GDP ratio over the longer term. In other words, more deficit spending is a good thing to do now, a but a bad thing three or four or five years from now when the economy is back to normal. (I should admit at this point that I don't think we'll ever get back to "normal" because I believe "normal" got us into the pickle we're now in, but I'll save this for another time.) Yet Republicans will demagogue the deficit and debt like mad in coming months.

                          I hope the President doesn't take the bait and begin talking about deficits and debts, when he should be talking only about creating more jobs. How issues are framed for the public makes all the difference.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                            Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                            From the Calculated Risk blog:

                            An update after today's stats release...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Unemployment December 2009: a rhyme not a repeat

                              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                              An update after today's stats release...
                              Month 26 and counting...

                              Just wait 'till the State government sector layoffs really start to bite.

                              The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust?

                              Comment

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