Peak Vehicles

[ggirod]

Americans scrapped 4 million more cars and trucks last year than they purchased, the first significant drop in the U.S. auto fleet in more than four decades, according to a new report.
The United States scrapped 14 million vehicles last year while buying only 10 million new ones, dropping the nation's fleet from an all-time high of 250 million to 246 million, according to the Earth Policy Institute.
Lester Brown, the author of the report, said the drop -- the first significant shrinkage the U.S. fleet has seen since record-keeping began in 1960 -- represents a "cultural shift away from the car" and estimated the fleet size will continue to recede during the next decade. He estimated the fleet could shrink a total of 10 percent by 2020.

In "Has the U.S. Reached Peak Vehicles", Scientific American reports that the U.S. fleet is expected to decline in coming years as the youth market discovers that they do not need cars for their more connected urban lifestyles.

IMHO I think there might be a simpler explanation, though one that TPTB probably would not like which is ...

If you don't have a two full-time-worker household you don't need two cars. Further, you don't need processed foods, daycare, two morning jumbo lattes, and lots of other support services required when both people work. I have looked casually to find how unemployment affects formerly two worker households but I haven't found good stats. It would seem that two income households would have twice the exposure to unemployment as single income households, but looking at even an overview of household income shows lots of complexity. I think it would be very interesting to see how much impact job losses have on two-income households and what that means for various businesses and products that support them.

Ideas?

[Chomsky]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I haven't owned a car in 12 years and my wife has never owned one. We live in NYC and have no need for a car -- lending some support to Scientific American's hypothesis.

[nitroglycol]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I heard a US Army psychologist interviewed on the radio last week. She noted that only around a quarter of the new recruits she saw had driver's licences. She took a rather more judgmental view of this than the Scientific American article, though, suggesting that it was indicative of the youth of today expecting to be driven around by their parents rather than doing without cars.

Some years ago I was involved with a girl who rationalized her failure to get a driver's licence as "doing my part for the environment". I'd take that more seriously if she didn't expect her mum to drive her everywhere...

[Wild Style]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I haven't owned a car in 12 years and my wife has never owned one. We live in NYC and have no need for a car -- lending some support to Scientific American's hypothesis.

I miss the city! I live in Florida now where you MUST have a car, unless of course you live and work in or near downtown Miami then you don't need a car. Which is where I am planning to move. Then Scientific America can add one more to the list.

[flintlock]

Re: Peak Vehicles

More likely the youth of today can't AFFORD a car and the insurance for it! I doubt its by choice they drive less. :rolleyes:

[ggirod]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I have to agree that urban settings with good mass transit mean people really don't need cars at all and I can believe that young people are just saying NO to cars. But, in further research, apparently there is a trend to one car families, too. The car market may be in very big trouble if the trends continue because it could be a long time before the existing vehicles are worn out.

Motivated by the declining economy, rising gas prices and a concern for the environment, families like the Rogerses say they are starting to rethink the need to have more than one car.

I found another interesting stat, Vehicle Miles of Travel which appears to have leveled off in 2006, a harbinger of things to come. Hindsight is always 20-20.

[aaron]

Re: Peak Vehicles

So, less cars on the road, or less cars parked in garages and driveways?

How many of are 3 or 4 car families that have cut back to 2?

Since the recession began, the daily commute into work has been a lot better. If this is a permanent trend, it seems like we can cut back on all those shovel-ready projects. We are building a lot of roads that may not be needed. In the area there are a lot of road-widening projects. They were definitely needed 2 years ago. Now, I am not sure.

One of the books I read (may have been Schiff's) described a future in which we would be exporting our used cars to China.

[touchring]

Re: Peak Vehicles

246 million vehicles? So more cars than there are adults with driving license?

[jneal3]

Re: Peak Vehicles

AutoZone 1Q Profit Rises 9.1%; Sales-Increase Trend Continues

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
AutoZone Inc.'s (AZO) fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 9.1%, topping Wall Street's expectations, as the company again saw sales increase.
Auto-parts retailers have seen business hold up despite the weakened economy as cost-conscious consumers have turned to repairing their old vehicles rather than buying new ones. AutoZone--the nation's biggest auto-parts seller--and smaller rival Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) have seen a steady stream of sales increases this year.

Don't know what the breakdown would be, but I think the more structural change is that the economy has forced people to rethink how long they keep cars, given that the quality has increased so much in the last 10 years across the board. Parts stores everywhere have been seeing strong growth for a couple of years now. Why buy new and accept the massive depreciation when for about $1000-$1500/year in parts/maintenance you can keep a (non-rusty) car going for at least 150K miles?

[GRG55]

Re: Peak Vehicles

246 million vehicles? So more cars than there are adults with driving license?

Yep, that's correct. At the peak of last boom there were more light duty vehicles registered in the USA than people with drivers licenses....

[BadJuju]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I will be 24 within less than a month and I still do not have a driver's license. And I anticipate never getting one. Aside from having my parents drive me to college once or twice a month, for which they receive payment, I walk everywhere.

[Chomsky]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I have to agree that urban settings with good mass transit mean people really don't need cars at all and I can believe that young people are just saying NO to cars.

I think also the retiring Baby Boomers are "simplifying" and working their way down to one car. My Boomer parents did that; they sold their house in the suburbs, bought a smaller, cheaper place in the downtown portion of a city, sold all but one car (they had several), and bought two bicycles.

[rj1]

Re: Peak Vehicles

I haven't owned a car in 12 years and my wife has never owned one. We live in NYC and have no need for a car -- lending some support to Scientific American's hypothesis.

So you're in the 10% of Americans that can actually do such a thing. What about the other 90%? No qualms about New York, but you should realize that your situation puts you in a small minority in this country. That's why I don't really think Scientific American is looking at the big picture here with their hypothesis. The largest population growth in this country is in the Sun Belt, there's no public transportation across that broad area that gets normally used by a person middle-class or higher, and you have to drive to where you're going. I live close to my work but it's still 20 miles drive one way to get there in the morning. The people that actually drive the most to my place of labor are the young urban lifestyle set because they want to live in the big city an hour away.

[Chomsky]

Re: Peak Vehicles

So you're in the 10% of Americans that can actually do such a thing. What about the other 90%? No qualms about New York, but you should realize that your situation puts you in a small minority in this country. That's why I don't really think Scientific American is looking at the big picture here with their hypothesis. The largest population growth in this country is in the Sun Belt, there's no public transportation across that broad area that gets normally used by a person middle-class or higher, and you have to drive to where you're going. I live close to my work but it's still 20 miles drive one way to get there in the morning. The people that actually drive the most to my place of labor are the young urban lifestyle set because they want to live in the big city an hour away.

Of course I realize that. If more people congregate in urban centers, great. As Peak Cheap Oil takes hold, more and more people will congregate in urban centers. Kill your car!

[aaron]

Re: Peak Vehicles

Of course I realize that. If more people congregate in urban centers, great. As Peak Cheap Oil takes hold, more and more people will congregate in urban centers. Kill your car!

I would love to live downtown in Seattle right by work. However, the schools are shitty there. The best schools are in the suburbs, by the big houses & SUVs. Until this changes, cities will continue to be unlivable.

I bet Beijing has the best schools in China. Washington D.C.? Not so much.