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"The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

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  • "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

    Good summary of Zero Hedge article, as always, by Jesse..........



    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...boats-for.html

    03 January 2010

    Is the US Goverment Preparing the Lifeboats for the Next Financial Disaster?


    Zero Hedge has an interesting review of proposed rule changes by the SEC and the Obama Administration which you can read in its entirety here.
    Yet new regulations proposed by the administration, and specifically by the ever-incompetent Securities and Exchange Commission, seek to pull one of these three core pillars from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7.
    The primary concern seems to be the new ability of money market fund managers to freeze redemptions (withdrawals) of funds at their discretion.
    "A key proposal in the overhaul of money market regulation suggests that money market fund managers will have the option to 'suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets.'"
    If you have the time, you should sit down and read through the entire essay at ZH, because it is fascinating. I understand that many will not because of the length and density of the piece, which is really not all that bad, and fairly well written as all of their pieces tend to be. I am not so adverse to some of the other changes in the MMFs such as the tightening of durations, but that is more a quibble.

    One also has to wonder if and when the government will begin to more aggressively manage the access of private citizens to their 401K's and IRA's and other forms of savings. Or is it just sufficient to manage the things that one might hold in them. Hard to say.

    Now that the government will be forcing Americans to buy private health insurance (and presumably use it to prevent certain trasmittable diseases for the public good as your private health insurer will have your records) where will they stop? What about life insurance, long term disability insurance, and retirement plans? How about psychological counseling and sensitivity training for social malcontents? "A gram is better than a damn."

    Here is the concluding paragraph from this essay and I wanted to highlight it here because otherwise it will be overlooked by many who should read and understand it. The conclusions that the author draws about WHY the changes are being made are more important perhaps than the changes themselves. Or at least to me, because I have very little money in any US money market fund, and even that is 100% short term Treasuries. The fraud and mispricing of risk in the US financial system has become pervasive and epidemic, such that a good stiff headwind could have taken it all down, and because of a lack of serious reform, still can. Rather than fixing potential causes of the next disaster, the Obama Administration seems content to block the escape routes and issue priority passes to the big Wall Street banks and a favored few.
    "At this point it is without doubt that even the government understands that when things turn sour, and they will, the run on the bank will be unavoidable: their solution - prevent money from being dispensed, when that moment comes. The thing about crises, be they liquidity, solvency, or plain-vanilla, is that "price discovery" occurs all at once, and at the very same time. And all too often, investors "discover" they were lied to, as the emperor, in any fiat system, always has no clothes.

    Just like in September 2008, when the banks were forced to look at each-others' balance sheet and realize that there are no real assets on the left backing up the liabilities on the right, so the moment of enlightenment occurs are the most importune time: just ask Hank Paulson. Had he known his action of beefing up Goldman's FICC trading axes would have resulted in the "Ice-Nine'ing" (to borrow a Mark Pittman term) of money markets, who knows- maybe Lehman would have still been alive. Perhaps risking the cash access of 20% of US households and 80% of companies was not worth the few extra zeroes in Goldman's EPS. But we will never know.

    What we will know, is that now i) the government is all too aware that the market has become one huge ponzi, and that all investment vehicles, even the safest ones, are subject to bank runs, and ii) that said bank runs, will occur. It is only a matter of time. And just as the president told everyone directly to buy the market on March 3, so the SEC, the Group of 30, and Barney Frank are telling us all, much less directly, to get the hell out of Dodge. Alternatively, the game of "last fool in", holding the burning hot potato, can continue indefinitely, until such time as the marginal utility of each and every dollar printed by Ben Bernanke is zero."
    This Is the Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied - ZeroHedge
    Stand your ground and wait. All is well. Someone has to take the big hit while the important people are transported to safety.

    The only constraint on the Fed's printing money is the acceptability (marginal value) of the Bond and the dollar, which is the bond of zero duration. And the people making the decisions about printing and distributing those dollars are more unworthy of holding such power than you might imagine, even in your lowest expectations.

    And if, even now, you do not 'get this' then the next ten years could be particularly disappointing.
    Last edited by Camtender; January 03, 2010, 11:52 PM.

  • #2
    Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

    Consider these further details on the proposed changes to money markets, from the ZeroHedge article:
    Ironically, the proposed change to Rule 2a-7 seeks to make dramatic changes to the composition of MMs: from 90 days, the WAM would get shortened to 60 days. And this is occurring at a time when the government is desperately seeking to find ways of extending maturities and durations of short-term debt instruments: by reverse rolling the $3.2 trillion industry, the impetus will be precisely the reverse of what should be happening, as more ultra-short maturity instruments are horded up, leaving a dead zone in the 60-90 day maturity window. Some other proposed changes to 2a-7 include "prohibiting the funds from investing in Second Tier securities, as defined in Rule 2a-7. Eligible securities would be redefined as securities receiving only the highest, rather than the highest two, short-term debt ratings from a requisite nationally recognized securities rating organization. Further, money market funds would be permitted to acquire long-term unrated securities only if they have received long-term ratings in the highest two, rather than the highest three, ratings categories." In other words, let's make them so safe, that when the time comes, nobody will have access to them. Brilliant.
    Everything, in my view, that can be done is being done to push money toward Treasuries and the Fed's balance sheet. There the Dollar will make its last stand as the world's reserve currency.

    ZeroHedge says something along these same lines, writing such things as:
    Obviously, attempts to push capital out of MMs have succeeded: after peaking at $3.9 trillion, currently money markets hold a two year low of $3.27 trillion.
    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

      Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post

      Everything, in my view, that can be done is being done to push money toward Treasuries and the Fed's balance sheet. There the Dollar will make its last stand as the world's reserve currency.
      That is an amazingly succinct and pointed summary. Nice.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

        The FED is simply preparing itself in the event of a "sudden stop" or Black Swan. Whether the likelihood of this occuring is one percent or one hundred percent is unknown. They did the same thing in Argentina(froze accounts).

        Many forms of paper will burn in a sudden stop. Everyone knows this. It's part of the argument of possessing GLD/SLV or the physical.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

          Originally posted by Quincy K View Post
          They did the same thing in Argentina(froze accounts).
          There may be a difference between Argentina and the U.S.

          Argentina was the prey, the hunted. It was one of many nations that were forced into debt (to pay for contracts to giant construction companies such as Bechtel and Halliburton ), then forced to "privatize" (sell their resources and revenue streams to giant financial institutions) in order to fund their debt.

          The U.S. is (well, might be) the predator, not the prey. Well, let me draw a finer line here. The corptocracy, the giant international corporations (financial, construction, military, intelligence, pharmaceutical, agricultural, ...) that we normally think of as mostly U.S. corporations are the predator.

          The ordinary American citizen, the small and medium American businesses and the local and state governments in the U.S., as well actually as those in Europe and Great Britain, have been a critical resource for the corptocracy, as consumers, soldiers (mostly U.S.), debtors, duped voters and taxpayers. In earlier decades, they were also a major source of productive labor.

          Now these ordinary people, businesses and lessor governments of America and Europe are being cannibalized by the core Anglo financial power in its desperate struggle to survive. Other regions of the world such as South America, India, China, Arabia and Russia look to gain power. Japan and Australia adjust their allegiances more toward these other regions such as China. Even other Corptocracy industries are threatened, such as the American auto makers. So far the big agriculture, drug, military, medical insurance, construction and intelligence firms are holding their own, but I'd be worried if I were them.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
            Consider these further details on the proposed changes to money markets, from the ZeroHedge article:
            Everything, in my view, that can be done is being done to push money toward Treasuries and the Fed's balance sheet. There the Dollar will make its last stand as the world's reserve currency.

            ZeroHedge says something along these same lines, writing such things as:
            classic zhedge...

            1. locate a data point.
            2. blow it into a gigantic doomer theory.
            3. ....
            4. profit.

            anything ever come of past theories?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

              Originally posted by metalman View Post
              classic zhedge...
              ...
              anything ever come of past theories?
              classic metalman....:rolleyes:.
              Most folks are good; a few aren't.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                Originally posted by metalman View Post
                classic zhedge...

                1. locate a data point.
                2. blow it into a gigantic doomer theory.
                3. ....
                4. profit.
                classic slashdot

                Originally posted by metalman View Post
                anything ever come of past theories?
                classic James Randi

                Got anthing you haven't copied, MM?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                  Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
                  classic slashdot
                  yep!

                  classic James Randi
                  who?

                  Got anthing you haven't copied, MM?
                  not a thing... i never claimed originality.

                  seriously... do any of these zh predictions ever come true?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                    Originally posted by metalman View Post
                    seriously... do any of these zh predictions ever come true?
                    Seriously... I don't care ;).
                    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                      Originally posted by metalman View Post
                      who?
                      you don't know Randi? Bo knows Randi

                      http://www.randi.org/site/

                      Originally posted by metalman View Post
                      not a thing... i never claimed originality.
                      you should, you're the most creative poster here

                      Originally posted by metalman View Post
                      seriously... do any of these zh predictions ever come true?
                      They're like Crammer - people probably read for entertainment, not predictive value

                      and they're unlike Crammer - no one cares enough to go back and check their record

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                        Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
                        you don't know Randi? Bo knows Randi

                        http://www.randi.org/site/
                        ok

                        you should, you're the most creative poster here
                        thx!

                        They're like Crammer - people probably read for entertainment, not predictive value

                        and they're unlike Crammer - no one cares enough to go back and check their record
                        unlike crammer, no flying monkeys to shut you down for telling the truth about them...
                        NBC shuts down CramerWatch.org

                        CramerWatch.org has been offline for the past week but came back online today, along with an explanation of where it went - NBC filed a "Cease and Desist ...
                        digg.com/tech_news/NBC_shuts_down_CramerWatch.org_
                        they also paid archive.org to make sure the archives don't work...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                          Originally posted by metalman View Post
                          seriously... do any of these zh predictions ever come true?
                          Tyler Durden

                          History
                          Member for
                          32 weeks 5 days
                          Also.....

                          Marla Singer
                          Member for
                          29 weeks 18 hours
                          ====

                          So. Heck, the ZH Founder account only shows as 32 weeks old. This is called "too early to say."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                            Originally posted by Nivelles View Post
                            Tyler Durden

                            History
                            Member for
                            32 weeks 5 days
                            Also.....

                            Marla Singer
                            Member for
                            29 weeks 18 hours
                            ====

                            So. Heck, the ZH Founder account only shows as 32 weeks old. This is called "too early to say."
                            greenhorns! not around long enough to be as wrong as metalman!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: "The Run on the Banks will be Unavoidable" ZH

                              Tyler Durden and Marla Singer - characters from the movie "Fight Club"

                              From the Zero Hedge Manifesto

                              our method: pseudonymous speech...

                              anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. it thus exemplifies the purpose behind the bill of rights, and of the first amendment in particular: to protect unpopular individuals from retaliation-- and their ideas from suppression-- at the hand of an intolerant society.

                              ...responsibly used.

                              the right to remain anonymous may be abused when it shields fraudulent conduct. but political speech by its nature will sometimes have unpalatable consequences, and, in general, our society accords greater weight to the value of free speech than to the dangers of its misuse.

                              - mcintyre v. ohio elections commission 514 u.s. 334 (1995) justice stevens writing for the majority

                              though often maligned (typically by those frustrated by an inability to engage in ad hominem attacks) anonymous speech has a long and storied history in the united states. used by the likes of mark twain (aka samuel langhorne clemens) to criticize common ignorance, and perhaps most famously by alexander hamilton, james madison and john jay (aka publius) to write the federalist papers, we think ourselves in good company in using one or another nom de plume. particularly in light of an emerging trend against vocalizing public dissent in the united states, we believe in the critical importance of anonymity and its role in dissident speech. like the economist magazine, we also believe that keeping authorship anonymous moves the focus of discussion to the content of speech and away from the speaker- as it should be. we believe not only that you should be comfortable with anonymous speech in such an environment, but that you should be suspicious of any speech that isn't.



                              zero hedge is:

                              tyler durden (founder): possessed of the belief that a return to (more) efficient markets is a possibility and a necessity. refugee of various asset managers and advisers, as his namesake, tyler remains convinced the current model is flawed and a deleveraging at every level of modern society is needed to reignite the fundamental entrepreneurial spirit.

                              marla singer (foil): a predator posing as a house pet. at the same time alarmed by and inexorably drawn to the fire of capitalism and the creative destruction wrought by capitalists (like tyler durden). compelled first to "big law" and then to finance, marla now sates her thirst for the efficient allocation of capital via the efficient distribution of information about capital via zero hedge. (beware her poison pen).

                              cornelius (author): cornelius crafts market perspectives from the universal truths that everyone knows but most ignore. after spending time at a large global macro fund, cornelius can't drink coffee anymore, is constantly surprised by the groupthink in media and financial research and believes the current structure continues to provide a comfortable blanket for those without original thought or compelling analyses. he keeps telling people that when the fear of publicly being wrong is greater than the fear of generating poor returns, change is due. so far, no one has answered for fear of being subjected to public ridicule.

                              travis (author): travis is rarely impressed with making money. it is almost mechanical to him, cold in nature, and un-fun. people earn it because they have to- plain and simple. attracted to shine and sizzle, spending is far better; and what one can do with money says a lot about the person, beyond the mere incomes or circumstances. travis is intrigued by want and passion, not need or greed. money is just a medium, a means to an end. while nothing really impresses or surprises travis, one thing is for sure- all you need is money and you’ll see your end.

                              Comment

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