Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

[Mega]

Thoughts for the year ahead:-

Gold:- $1405, i think bugs are in for a BIG shock.....it reach $1800 ish then drop hard.

Silver:- Might atlast have its year, $26 ?

Oil:- $95 ish

Stocks:- In say 30% higher, after MASSIVE 2nd stin-y-us.

Inflation:- Yes, 6-9% "They" be careful not to let it been seen to let it go double figs.

Mike

[grapejelly]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

gold $1800
silver $22
oil $100
stocks up 10%
inflation 6 -9% agreed

don't know about the price of figs

[Chris]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

figs will be $16 a lb.

[unlucky]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

Here's my short-term forecast.

The story at the start of the year will be about "economic recovery". Gold will go roughly sideways, stocks will fall, yields will creep upwards, inflation will be low and slowly rising, Bernanke will make lots of noises about tightening but probably won't do anything.


Happy new year everybody!

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

I think 2010 will be a very volatile year.

[jtabeb]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

Thoughts for the year ahead:-

Gold:- $1405, i think bugs are in for a BIG shock.....it reach $1800 ish then drop hard.

Silver:- Might atlast have its year, $26 ?

Oil:- $95 ish

Stocks:- In say 30% higher, after MASSIVE 2nd stin-y-us.

Inflation:- Yes, 6-9% "They" be careful not to let it been seen to let it go double figs.

Mike

Iran falls to counter revolution, Mosavi government replaces existing hardliners, Iran officially abandons nuclear weapons program and instead settles on Turkey as a custodian for uranium enrichment via France. Price of Oil Drops, US and IRAN announce new "Exchange For Peace initiative" whereby US buys Iranian oil.

As a result of #1, Israeli Palistinian peace talks get bumped into high gear and become the number 1 foreign policy priority of the Obama Administration. Final Settlement agreement emerges which gives west bank statehood in 2014. Gaza is bypassed and it's future remains uncertain.

Pakistan/ Afghanistan treads water, no progress, doesn't fall back either.

Official CPI inflation is low and declines further. As a result, 2010 is the second year in a row where there is no COLA raise for social security recipients.Real world food prices are soaring, however. A supply shock from one of the worst harvests in years is responsible for the increase. Durable Goods prices are also skyrocketing at between 20% and 85% depending on which specific Item you are tracking. Here, a supply shock is also responsible for the tremendous price increases. It is caused by the Huge production shutdowns world wide, but esp in china. Inventories are depleted, small reorders are made to refill stockpiles, but the low level of activity causes many production firms to go bankrupt, as the order volume is not enough to even cover the costs of production. Firms just shutdown factories, Idle equipment and lay off workers, rather than operating their factories for a sustained loss. This of course only intensifies the scarcity in durable goods supplies and magnifies the price increases on existing stocks.

Unemployment is decreasing officially via gov statistics, in reality we get to 33% U12. Unemployment benefits are extended to 36 months prior to the midterm elections.

In real terms, all forms of credit continue to decline, save for government bailout programs and stealth fed monitization. Pretend and extend continue in residential real estate, a similar policy develops for commercial realestate.

Due to the near collapse of private credit and rule changes on money market funds, a dire year is expected for the dow, which astonishes everyone with a finish above 13000 by the end of 2010. Long rates climb in the first half of the year as the dollar declines. After Greece and Spain announce they are leaving the European Monetary system, the Euro crashes by 30%, but ends the year at 1.95 on the DXY due to half the PIGS being cut lose from the Euro system (with speculation that the other PIGS are soon to follow). Part of the strengthening arises from the fact that the EURO zone announces a major Restructuring. The Euro Currency remains, but now each member state is allow to have independent Fluctuating interest rates not governed by the ECB. Spain and Greece make a bid to reenter the euro sphere but are spurrned.
Italy's euro bonds are yeilding 17%, Germany's are at 4.5%, France is at 8.5%.

The Dollar Dips in the first half of the year, strengthens during the EURO crisis and then declines again as the New terms of the Euro System come on line. The dollar finishes 2010 exactly where it started on 1 Jan for no net change.

US interest rates make it 6% in july, but fall all the way back o 4.8% by the end of the year.

Gold Rockets in the first half of the year as the dollar declines going into july. The rise is puncuated by steep falls during treasury issue periods. Gold is stopped dead in it's tracks after reaching $1850 in July. It just touches $1350 prior to the midterms but then again rises along with a rising dollar to finish the year at a new record of $2450.

Silver Breaks $20 as Gold breaches $1600, only to fall back to $16 as gold hits $1350 after mid-year. Silver then goes on to quintuple gold's end of year climb off of the midyear correction. A moon shot that takes it to $78 per ounce from a midyear low of $16, an almost 500% gain off the low, it is the best performer of the year in the metals sector (lagging behind Agri. Futures prices which have had some astounding gains).

Soybeans up 1200%, Winter wheat, up 900%, rice up 500%, Dairy up 700%.

Gas finishes the year at $3.76, Diesel at $4.26, Crude oil $135.

[jpatter666]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

Wow...jtabeb that's putting your neck out. I'm impressed. Regardless of outcome, I'm bookmarking this post. Will be interesting to look back in a year.

[tacito]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

After Greece and Spain announce they are leaving the European Monetary system, the Euro crashes by 30%, but ends the year at 1.95 on the DXY due to half the PIGS being cut lose from the Euro system (with speculation that the other PIGS are soon to follow).

One problem with this is that we pigs owe lots of money (via our banks and government) to banks and institutions in northern Europe. If, for example, Spain returns to the peseta, some debts will be denominated in pesetas, some will remain in euros. Most likely existing public debt will be redenominated in pesetas (at pair value for a whole second). Private debt in euros or dollars will remain untouched.

I have no problem with they redenominating my mortgage to a free falling peseta (since my savings weight and clink as they should). The problem will be for the lenders: the debts that get changed to pesetas will default implicitly because of peseta devaluation; the debts that don't will default explicitly when the peseta falls too much.

So I don't think that the germans want us out of the euro. They want all our blood. In fact lots more than we have . And that means saving us (they can give us IMF style recipes to ensure that we pay). And that means also printing euros so we can pay them. My mortgage reduction will not be so fast, but it will arrive.

[jtabeb]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

Wow...jtabeb that's putting your neck out. I'm impressed. Regardless of outcome, I'm bookmarking this post. Will be interesting to look back in a year.

It's all off the top of my head, so keep that in mind, before taking these all to the bank, ok?

[tacito]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

Gold Rockets in the first half of the year as the dollar declines going into july. The rise is puncuated by steep falls during treasury issue periods. Gold is stopped dead in it's tracks after reaching $1850 in July. It just touches $1350 prior to the midterms but then again rises along with a rising dollar to finish the year at a new record of $2450.

Gold will retest the $1000 area about my aniversary in february just to give me a nice gift. Then it will go up and will spend the summer doldrums working out the resistence at the previous highs. If there are no black swan event, it will go up after october up to your $1350 objective. In the worst case, it will finish the year retesting support at the $1200 area. In the best case in the $1300s.

jtabeb, you've been in gold much longer than me. Do you really think that gold will not make us suffer this year?

But... on August 7 there will be THE Black Swan. And gold will go to the MOON!!! Just in time to make us rich before the end of the world in 2012.

[jtabeb]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

jtabeb, you've been in gold much longer than me. Do you really think that gold will not make us suffer this year?

I have not had a single year (not a one) that I have suffered while owing gold (in fact, it's about the only thing that let's me get a decent night's rest!)

[jpatter666]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

It's all off the top of my head, so keep that in mind, before taking these all to the bank, ok?

Oh sure, not making any decisions based on this, just impressed with all the specifics.

[phirang]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

What if Ben raises the rate paid on reserves and gold tanks to $850?

[jtabeb]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

What if Ben raises the rate paid on reserves and gold tanks to $850?

Paper price could get that low, anything is possible. I think that the futures market is already in backwardation. If the price get's to that point it means that futures will have completely divorced from the physical markets. Expect a $800+ delta between spot paper and spot physical if that happens.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Ok Ladies & Gents Its 2010 so let have your....

just added another 50 oz to the stash today,,,