Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

[sishya]

Barry is a voice I respect and he is forecasting a Gold Drop of 20 to 30% next
Year 2010. This has got me slightly uncomfortable. He is usually right although
he was predicting Gold of $1350/oz even a few weeks ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ld,oil,udn,uup

"It's clear the great recession is over!," says Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ and author of the Big Picture blog. The world didn't end, as many predicted late last year and early this year, and Ritholtz thinks many will be surprised by the economy in 2010.
Not because we'll see a robust recovery, rather, because we’ll see more of the same; an economy characterized by weak employment, weak housing and the continuation of what he describes as a mild recession.
As for investing in the new year, Ritholtz reminds viewers to expect the unexpected.
He's betting on a rebound for the dollar. "No one is expecting a rally in the dollar," he proclaims, and that's exactly why he "wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar rally 30-40% from here."
A stronger dollar will be a headwind for stocks and "terrible for oil, terrible for gold," he says. Ritholtz predicts gold will pull back "20-30%" next year. Unlike many of the gold bugs, he doesn't think "the world is ending" and doesn't predict any social panic that would lead to a spike in gold prices.

[phirang]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Barry is a voice I respect and he is forecasting a Gold Drop of 20 to 30% next
Year 2010. This has got me slightly uncomfortable. He is usually right although
he was predicting Gold of $1350/oz even a few weeks ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ld,oil,udn,uup

30%? $700 gold? Hmm... very plausible, given the Yen is the carry currency again.

[touchring]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Barry is a voice I respect and he is forecasting a Gold Drop of 20 to 30% next
Year 2010. This has got me slightly uncomfortable. He is usually right although
he was predicting Gold of $1350/oz even a few weeks ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ld,oil,udn,uup

I sold my gold on Thursday. A lot of projects have gone wrong. Even EWI is starting to waiver on their initial projections.

As far as I can see, most have miscalculated on the "China factor". China affected the equation more than expected, so the double dip isn't materializing, at least until now.

[Gnosis]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Be bold, hold gold. The Black Swan potential swings gold.

[icm63]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

BUY GOLD when TBT reverses !

[Chris]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

The institution to which I devote many of my waking (and working hours) is predicting a recovery in Q4 2009 into Q4 2010 with > 4% GDP growth for the USA. If that does materialize in the figures then gold may drop substantially.

Even so, structurally the western economies are still ghosts of their former productive selves. If the FIRE sector can't pull another fast one then gold will once again be projected to the moon. I'd rather sit and wait than jump in and out (of bullion).

[FRED]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

From an upcoming analysis, such a correction from Dec. 2, 2009 highs might look like this.

Of course, the opposite outcome is also possible.

[cjppjc]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

No.

[zilbo79]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Thanks for sharing. What if Gary Shilling is right and lack of consumer spending further lowers the market? What if Meredith Whitney is right and lack of state government spending further lowers the market?

http://www.meredithwhitneyllc.com/re...%20Budgets.htm

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/11...-strategy.html



Do these factors support the thesis that gold will go down? There is much to consider.

[Chris]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Thanks for sharing. What if Gary Shilling is right and lack of consumer spending further lowers the market? What if Meredith Whitney is right and lack of state government spending further lowers the market?

http://www.meredithwhitneyllc.com/re...%20Budgets.htm

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/11...-strategy.html



Do these factors support the thesis that gold will go down? There is much to consider.

No, but they do support the thesis that stocks may go down.

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Mostly funds and institutions from here to the top when cash strapped retail shows-up buying 1/10 fractionals.

India is close to going underwater on 200 tonnes at an average of $1045 oz. Think they might be warming up the truck about now ?

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Barry is a voice I respect and he is forecasting a Gold Drop of 20 to 30% next
Year 2010. This has got me slightly uncomfortable. He is usually right although
he was predicting Gold of $1350/oz even a few weeks ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ld,oil,udn,uup

mild recession.

Hmm.. 10% unemployment is now considered a mild recession now?

[GRG55]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Hmm.. 10% unemployment is now considered a mild recession now?

Exactly.

Ritholtz is an integral part of the FIRE community in NY. He may be a somewhat more objective and astute observer of the goings on in the markets [I go to his blog regularly], but I find it difficult to believe that anyone cloistered in NY and who's income revolves around the financial sector, and the financial media in particular, can truly understand and apprieciate what is really going on out there across America.

[stetts]

Well, I gotta ask....

BUY GOLD when TBT reverses !

I generally like your comments, and here's what I find on this one.
Long term chart, clearly trending down. From 74 or so to around 47 today.
Shorter term, such as 3 month, clearly uptrend.
From Jan 2009 to today, flat.

Conclusion: Your prediction is safe. ;) Could you clarify a tad? I'd appreciate it.
Take care and Merry Christmas. Stetts

[tofu2u2]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Oh wow, a 20 to 30% reduction in the price of gold in 2010 would be wonderful!! For those of us who haven't yet accumulated enough surplus gold to trade, this would be a wonderful development.