Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

[skidder]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Did Barry call for a 30% (or whatever it ends up being) rise in gold a year ago?
If so, I'd certainly be inclined to listen to him. If not, ignore him. It's the same test I give to folks who expound on the economy. Did they see the crash or not and is there a record of that claim?

[grapejelly]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

you would have to believe that currency will become much more valuable, at a time when governments are furiously trying to borrow and spend more and more in an attempt to "stimulate" their economies.

I do not believe this.

[Anon21456]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

you would have to believe that currency will become much more valuable, at a time when governments are furiously trying to borrow and spend more and more in an attempt to "stimulate" their economies.

I do not believe this.

No, you would have to believe that cash-flow become scarce and debt become omnipresent, and that's very likely to happen.

[metalman]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Did Barry call for a 30% (or whatever it ends up being) rise in gold a year ago?
If so, I'd certainly be inclined to listen to him. If not, ignore him. It's the same test I give to folks who expound on the economy. Did they see the crash or not and is there a record of that claim?

searched around & can't find a 2008 gold prediction from barry for 2009, up or down. noticed that he & mish turned up on the fire economy network... yahoo finance... with ben stein, robert kiyosaki & the other fire pitchmen & scammers...

[goadam1]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

searched around & can't find a 2008 gold prediction from barry for 2009, up or down. noticed that he & mish turned up on the fire economy network... yahoo finance... with ben stein, robert kiyosaki & the other fire pitchmen & scammers...

Was he part of the group of bloggers that meet with Treasury in November?

Taking its cue, perhaps, from the Obama Administration's reported efforts to reach out to the political blogging community in the hopes of cultivating broad support for its ambitious agenda, the Treasury yesterday organized a meeting between various Department officials and a group of economics and finance bloggers.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae..._b_344598.html

Among the bloggers who attended the "discussion," which centered on financial reform, the Treasury's efforts to stabilize the financial system, and the challenges ahead, were the publishers of Naked Capitalism, Interfluidity, Marginal Revolution, Kid Dynamite’s World, Across the Curve, Accrued Interest, The Aleph Blog, and Financial Armageddon (one of my two blogs).

[WildspitzE]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Exactly.

Ritholtz is an integral part of the FIRE community in NY. He may be a somewhat more objective and astute observer of the goings on in the markets [I go to his blog regularly], but I find it difficult to believe that anyone cloistered in NY and who's income revolves around the financial sector, and the financial media in particular, can truly understand and apprieciate what is really going on out there across America.

Exactly ^ 2.

I know many of the same type of folks. These guys are commentators. Look at the bio, and if it starts with a list of television credentials or some book, instead of successfully managing money or real businesses, then take anything they say with a grain of salt.

Personally I stopped frequenting his blog, didn't find anything of added value (other than some funny cartoons from time to time).

[metalman]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

No, you would have to believe that cash-flow become scarce and debt become omnipresent, and that's very likely to happen.

no, to believe that you'd have to forget that the cash flow crisis was forecast here 3 yrs ago & the gov't solution... supply gov't credit & demand to replace private market credit & demand... done.

[grapejelly]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

No, you would have to believe that cash-flow become scarce and debt become omnipresent, and that's very likely to happen.

Cash flow becomes scarce...the government prints more money. No, it does not have to be borrowed into existence by the private sector.

It *will* be spent by the public sector. There *will* be debt financed by the central banks.

This means more inflation. There is simply no alternative. That is why I don't see this "gold drops" scenario as being highly probable.

[skidder]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

searched around & can't find a 2008 gold prediction from barry for 2009, up or down. noticed that he & mish turned up on the fire economy network... yahoo finance... with ben stein, robert kiyosaki & the other fire pitchmen & scammers...

Folks who didn't include Gold in their investment advisorys after year 7 of being in a bull market but now offer these grand visions of where it is going, fall under the same category as those who claimed to have forseen the financial collapse but have no proof of such. I ignore them. I'm not saying they will be wrong. Just that they would not have been out of gold in a 400% run up since 2001 if they had a clue about where it was going.

[Raz]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Folks who didn't include Gold in their investment advisorys after year 7 of being in a bull market but now offer these grand visions of where it is going, fall under the same category as those who claimed to have forseen the financial collapse but have no proof of such. I ignore them. I'm not saying they will be wrong. Just that they would not have been out of gold in a 400% run up since 2001 if they had a clue about where it was going.

I agree.

BTW, IF Feb. '10 Comex Gold CLOSES above 1,092 today, then there is a very good chance that it bottomed - or at least completed its first leg down and should soon begin to rally.

[Spartacus]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

???? really?

Did Barry call for a 30% (or whatever it ends up being) rise in gold a year ago?
If so, I'd certainly be inclined to listen to him. If not, ignore him. It's the same test I give to folks who expound on the economy. Did they see the crash or not and is there a record of that claim?

you would listen to a forecaster based on ONE SINGLE good call?

[sishya]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

If Gold drops to $1030/oz, I will be buying again in small amounts over the period of fall from then.

[MulaMan]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

What if MulaMan is correct again and option arm mortgages explode in 2010 Q1 and 40% of all US mortgages go underwater?

[metalman]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

What if MulaMan is correct again and option arm mortgages explode in 2010 Q1 and 40% of all US mortgages go underwater?

old news is old.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Barry Ritholtz says Gold to Drop 20%-30% next year

Exactly ^ 2.

I know many of the same type of folks. These guys are commentators. Look at the bio, and if it starts with a list of television credentials or some book, instead of successfully managing money or real businesses, then take anything they say with a grain of salt.

Personally I stopped frequenting his blog, didn't find anything of added value (other than some funny cartoons from time to time).

Barry is by far and away the most accurate of prognosticators. He saw the melt down and he called the short term bottom. Ignore him at your peril.

He does say some dumb things now and then, but don't we all..