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Re: My last post
Happy Solstice (Dec 21st), Mega, and keep posting. I find your newspaper articles interesting to read, whether I agree with them or not.
And don't get depressed.... Winter is the best time of year, especially in deserts. The Los Angeles River even began to flow last week when water re-appeared for the first time since last winter. (There is re-newal.)Comment
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Re: My last post
Why do I get the feeling that the hedgies and prop desks are long $/short Euro and everybody from Maria on CNBC to the European press and the credit rating agencies is doing their part to make sure the trade works?Originally posted by Mega View Post
Moody's 'axe blow' to rating on Spanish debts
Published: 6:05AM GMT 18 Dec 2009
The debt crisis sweeping southern Europe has deepened after US credit-rating agency Moody's downgraded €112bn (£100m) of Spanish mortgage debt and slashed the ratings of Catalunia and a raft of regions with ballooning state deficits.
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Re: My last post
Originally posted by grg55
the euro has been a crowded trade, extolled for its bundesbackbone, while everyone ignored the decadence of its southern underbelly. the euro has real problems. so the dollar gets some luster in comparison. as i've remarked in other threads, though, i want to see what happens to the price of commodities- oil has been firm, for example. unless commodities go down, showing me that the dollar buys more goods in the real world, i'll say it's not a strong dollar, it's a weak euro.
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Re: My last post
No argument. And I am not inclined to conspiracy theories either, but I do find it remarkable that the "pro-dollar/anti-Euro" stories, credit downgrades, and so forth are coming down thicker than a blizzard in New England [trust you have the wood pile well stocked jkOriginally posted by jk View Post
].
Spanish mortgage problems are nothing new, so why the announcement now? I am starting to wonder if the financial sector in Europe is just as corrupt as the one we have in North America...Comment
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Re: My last post
yes, and - for the moment at least- my geothermal system seems to have gotten past its kinks.Originally posted by GRG55 View PostNo argument. And I am not inclined to conspiracy theories either, but I do find it remarkable that the "pro-dollar/anti-Euro" stories, credit downgrades, and so forth are coming down thicker than a blizzard in New England [trust you have the wood pile well stocked jk ].
just the news cycle, i think. downgrades for greece.... my heavens, there are also problems in spain!Originally posted by grg55
corrupt europeans??! say it ain't so! here i thought it was just us slick yanks.Originally posted by grg55Comment
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Re: My last post
Mega,
You provide a tremendous amount of insight to this site from all the articles you dig up. Please keep the stream of info coming.
Happy Holidays from Seattle.Comment
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Re: My last post
Have you been missing the Austrian bank nationalizations going on due to the massive loans made to eastern Europe? That affects Germany and Sweden as well. Then there's the Greeks being ran by their Socialist party that look unwilling to impose fiscal discipline while anything they try to do is immediately met by strikes and riots, while the Irish are like Spain. The euro has issues figuring out how it can balance out its stronger members with its weaker.Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
Anyway, this guy does a pretty good job analyzing Europe. He lives in Spain and over the past few months has been demonstrating via words and charts that the Spaniards are well and truly royally f*cked: http://eurowatch.blogspot.com/
Exactly these sort of concerns were put directly to Monsieur Trichet in his quarterly appearance before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committe of the European Parliament last Monday by the Catalan MEP (and member of Convergencia Democràtica de Catalunya ) Ramon Tremosa. Here is is question:
Monsieur Trichet, there are countries in the Eurozone that are starting to recover and some others, like Spain, in which the absence of reforms will condemn them to remain in recession for the coming months.Monsieur Trichet was not amused. In a strongly worded reply that was given extensive coverage in the Spanish press (but barely received a mention in the English language one), he told Ramon Tremosa in no uncertain terms that there would be no second chance for the banks, "There is not one Euro for Spain, and another for the other countries. There is only one Euro, one rate of interest, and one exchange rate".
In France, for instance, household lending and house purchases are now growing, while in Spain lending to households continues to decrease, and the housing market remains flat and lifeless. Therefore,
1.- Are you worried by such apparent diversity within the Eurozone?
2.- In your opinion, what practical implications such divergence will have for the conduct of monetary policy at the ECB?
Under a "European divergence" scenario, it could happen that the "Optimum Currency Area" assumptions wouldn´t be valid anymore, and that an "average" monetary policy would start being harmful instead.
For example, if some European countries (like Germany or France) start having positive inflation rates, while others (like Spain, Greece, Portugal or Ireland) continue in deflation, implementing an "average" monetary policy could be harmful: especially if the monetary policy, due to the high weight of the French and German economies, leads to the "average" monetary policy becoming slightly restrictive. This would lead to further rounds of deflation in the "deflationary" countries.
3.- Has the ECB a plan to cope specifically with this issue? Or will the ECB continue with the "average" monetary policy it has exercised until now?
Last edited by rj1; December 20, 2009, 01:26 AM.Comment
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Re: My last post
That's not an insight and he's not digging them up, he's a link whore. He goes to the same few sites every day and posts the link up, a witty one-liner that is usually misleading on what the article is talking about, and does not provide any context or analysis whatsoever. If you want to look at what Mega posts everyday, visit some business and financial websites and you can read them yourself; or heck, just sign up for an RSS feed from certain sites, it'll give you just as much critical thinking as Mega did.Originally posted by bcassill View Post
I came up with a solution to this a long time ago: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11456Last edited by rj1; December 20, 2009, 01:24 AM.Comment
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Re: My last post
No I haven't missed it. My observation is simply that problems in the Eurozone have been both developing and readily apparent for some time. It just strikes me [and it's just a perception, not a statistically validated measurement] that there's a real "pile-on" underway right now. A veritable avalanche of Euro negative news stories, analysts comments, and so forth with some of it recycling old stories from eariler this year...and at the very same time a lot of shrill vocalizing going of about a Dollar rally with legs. Once again I am no conspiracy believer, but my perception is that all this just seems a wee bit too convenient for the traders...Originally posted by rj1 View Post
Thanks for the link...interesting read for sure...and I've got it bookmarked nowOriginally posted by rj1 View PostLast edited by GRG55; December 20, 2009, 02:27 AM.Comment
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Re: My last post
Well, all the naysayers such as us thought the housing market would go down. It wasn't a problem, until it was, and then we hear Bear Stearns is in trouble. Dubai made everyone scared and the ratings agencies are responding in kind.Originally posted by GRG55 View PostNo I haven't missed it. My observation is simply that problems in the Eurozone have been both developing and readily apparent for some time. It just strikes me [and it's just a perception, not a statistically validated measurement] that there's a real "pile-on" underway right now. A veritable avalanche of Euro negative news stories, analysts comments, and so forth with some of it recycling old stories from eariler this year...and at the very same time a lot of shrill vocalizing going of about a Dollar rally with legs. Once again I am no conspiracy believer, but my perception is that all this just seems a wee bit too convenient for the traders...
He posts once every few days and generally only covers Europe, but he's a very good read and is very detailed with lots of reference material.Thanks for the link...interesting read for sure...and I've got it bookmarked nowComment
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Re: My last post
Go in peace, Sapiens.Comment
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Re: My last post
We shall see how strong the dollar trade is when oil goes back toward $82/barrel. And that will be just the beginning of the coming up-trend.
Unless oil can come gushing out of windmills and solar panels, the dollar is ultimately going to trade lower. So any rally in the dollar will be capped by the fundamentals.
Some silly non-science, non-economics, code-words, and buzz-words that make the dollar a SELL: photo-voltaics, geo-thermal energy, smart-grid technology, windmills, carbon accounting, "cash for caulkers", "cash for clunkers", the Copenhagen Agreement, carbon footprints, AGW, hydrogen-fuel technology, plug-in cars, hope, faith, corn-ethanol fuel, algae, mining frozen-methane deposits, super-conductors, E-85, supply-side economics, New-Era thinking, "deficits don't count", "healthy inflation", quanitative-easing, derivative markets, de-regulation, "dark markets", bio-fuels, "sustainable development", Post-fossil Fuel Era, "habitat protection", TARP, ZIRP, tidal power, etc. :rolleyes:
:rolleyes:
Last edited by Starving Steve; December 20, 2009, 01:43 PM.Comment
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