How high for the Dow?

[rabot10]

When the Dow hit 13000 I started to re - evaluate where the TOP might be. All common sense and statistical data tells me that we should not have gotten to this point. I don’t like to fight the trend as I also don’t like losing money that much. Although I am good at it lol.

So any crystal ball predictions on where this top might be?

My crystal ball says 13980, it has never been right before, but there is first time for everything.

[Tet]

Re: How high for the Dow?

I'm thinking we're knocking on 14,000 by the end of May. Market needed 24 trading days to go from 10,000 to 11,000 and I would think we'll be something close to that, April 25th I believe was when we crossed 13,000. A lot depends on the Fed's May 9th meeting and what expectations are for interest rates and what the chances are for the market to put the Punchbowl out. Planned Layoff announcements were pretty large, GDP number came and low and we can always blame this housing fiasco for lower rates. Market is acting like it expects a rate cut, I don't think I'm willing to bet against the market here.

[grapejelly]

Re: How high for the Dow?

i wouldn't bet against the market by going short, but I can't see a sustainable rally continuing much longer. Housing in the US is just too big a drag and I don't think stocks can be pumped up enough to make up for it...retail sales in the US are trending down (finally?) because of home equity withdrawal withdrawal