A trader's market commentary

[marketreflections]

Rich is bullish, and bullish is rich

[Tet]

Re: Capitalism and democracy? A “capital weighted average”

What is capitalism and democracy? A “capital weighted average”



Meanwhile, technicians, let’s focus on how big traders are going to trade from here.

Higher, nothing else to consider.

[Tet]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Falling rates lift a lot of boats, certainly the market would be happy about that and Bill Gross would as well. Nothing better than Greed in the market, any stock you pick is a winner. Nothing get's Greed going like a Fed cut, or even talking about one. We're almost seven years removed from Greed being in the markets, I wonder if anyone remembers.

[Tet]

Re: 032107 Fed and "three representations"

So, when Bill Gross and his alike claimed that they cannot make “structural profits” under current yield curve and economy needs a rate cut, Fed listens.

Well said.

As far as the Chinese go, I'm much more inclined to believe the population figures to be 1.5 billion not 1.3 billion. The question becomes how many 18-23 year old single women are there in China to make all of our trinkets? I'd bet they have more than they let on. Don't underestimate the state economy in the picture, the Chinese run several different economies. The state economy, state companies and state projects dwarf anything being done on the captialist side. Nothing is as it seems in China, the Chinese are big believers in Sun Tzu's Art of War.


Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy's purpose.
By persistently hanging on the enemy's flank, we shall succeed in the long run in killing the commander-in-chief. This is called ability to accomplish a thing by sheer cunning.

Therefore the skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.

I'm also more inclined to believe the Chinese are at war with us.

[Sapiens]

Re: 032107 Fed and "three representations"

I'm also more inclined to believe the Chinese are at war with us.

Tet, not only you. Back in 2002 Al Amato made a report to congress, I saved the link where I read about it:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/716633/posts

The Chinese leadership appears to be fixated on so-called asymmetrical warfare, or silver bullets, surprise weaponry and tactics they call assassin’s mace. We worry that they may be mesmerized by a self-deception that they can prevail in military scenarios with the U.S. on the cheap through such surprise strategies.

These perceptions problems are accompanied, in our view, by the steadfast refusal of the Chinese leadership to engage us constructively on the matter of building effective bilateral confidence building institutions and procedures. We are encouraging the Administration to make renewed attempts to build such institutions.

US-China Security Review Commission
http://www.uscc.gov/

[bill]

Re: A trader's market commentary

On Jan 07,07 a clicking sound was heard, it was the US unlocking the leash from the new bull dog in Asia, Japan .
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../japan/jda.htm


Feeding the bull dog gets under way immediately.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/IE05Dh01.html

[Tet]

Re: A trader's market commentary

All one needs to realize is that one out of every eight women in the world is Chinese, in the long run they win and they really don't have to do anything. What do the Chinese care if a few hundred million Chinese engage in capitalism? The number is not significant compared to the whole. Where better to have your enemy? Surrounded by a billion Chinese? or off making the same investments and causing the same mayhem in South America, Southeast Asia or Africa? The Chinese look at the two-hundred year history of their dealings with the west and they realize the west has been at war with them. The Opium Wars killed millions and impoverished most of the country, Japanese Imperialism was no different than western imperialism, much of Japan's Imperialism was funded by the west, Korean War, Vietnam, US lies regarding Taiwan, who has the west ever dealt with throughout history as an equal partner? Indians? Africans? Russians? Asians? Nobody that I've discovered. India has a similar history with the west, now who does India turn to, the US and the Brits? or Russia and China? China just held naval exercises with India for the third year in a row. Anglo influence is contracting, Chinese influence is expanding and it looks like this trend continues. Now where are the Chinese taking the world? To create more Capitalism along with Central banksters? or something different altogether.

[Tet]

Re: A trader's market commentary

On Jan 07,07 a clicking sound was heard, it was the US unlocking the leash from the new bull dog in Asia, Japan .

Feeding the bull dog gets under way immediately.

Only so many Boeing commercial jets you can purchase with your d0llars until you realize you've collected enough of them. Japan has been under occupation for the last 62-years and the last time I checked it wasn't China doing the occupying. Japan, along with China and South Korea aggreed to combine their $2.7 trillion in reserves to fend off US and Brit raids on Asia's currencies when the Fed cuts rates, that investment seems to trump any Japanese expenditures on shitty US military gear. When the upcoming Asian currency crisis hits, we'll get a much better understanding of just who Japan is betting on, the US or China. I noticed China handed Japan a contract to build tens of billions of d0llars worth of nuclear power plants. What contracts has the US recently given Japan? Looks like it's Japan giving the US the contracts. True partnerships work both ways.

[bill]

Re: A trader's market commentary

tet

who Japan is betting on

Japan is betting on Japan to play a major role in the region.
I am not insinuating Japan will side with the US or China , as a matter of fact the clicking sound was a sound of independence.

tet

I noticed China handed Japan a contract to build tens of billions of d0llars worth of nuclear power plants.

Had no choice, where are the Chinese going to get the Uranium? Japan will be the supplier of Uranium via Australia . As I stated in previous post.

tet

Japan, along with China and South Korea aggreed to combine their $2.7 trillion in reserves to fend off US and Brit

Smart move and whom will have the greater future influence of the reserve pool , Japan .
Update news on the matter:http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...P4&refer=japan

[Tet]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Japan is betting on Japan to play a major role in the region.
I am not insinuating Japan will side with the US or China , as a matter of fact the clicking sound was a sound of independence.

I agree

Had no choice, where are the Chinese going to get the Uranium? Japan will be the supplier of Uranium via Australia . As I stated in previous post.

There were three players bidding on Chinese nuclear power contract, Russia, France and Japan, the Chinese chose Japan. Keep in mind this contract to Japan is just a small portion of the nuclear power plants most of which are being built by Chinese companies. China is in the process of building 50 nuclear power plants. Russia has plans on building twenty nuclear power plants for themselves, plus the twenty that Iran is planning on building, I doubt Russia had the capacity to help out China. I would think the Uranium comes from Kazakhstan not Australia.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atcAqoWMqJCc
Japan's Utilities to Buy Uranium From Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO which makes up China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with Iran and Pakistan interested in joining.

Smart move and whom will have the greater future influence of the reserve pool , Japan .

We'll see if Asia comes out with their own version of the Euro, I think by the end of the summer more information comes out.

[bill]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Tet

I would think the Uranium comes from Kazakhstan not Australia.

I think it comes from both, as I call it the "Resource Theater" in this post.http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9625#post9625.
Japan wants in the resource game.
Japan and Australia will finish a FTA later this year.

Prime Minister John Howard makes a move to fast track Uranium exporting.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/...460016312.html

[Tet]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Tet



I think it comes from both, as I call it the "Resource Theater" in this post.http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9625#post9625.
Japan wants in the resource game.
Japan and Australia will finish a FTA later this year.

Prime Minister John Howard makes a move to fast track Uranium exporting.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/...460016312.html

Just a ton of nuclear power plants in the pipeline, Iran has the one they are finishing-up with two more being built and plans on having twenty plants in the next twelve years. Putin's State of the Nation address talked about the need for Russia building twenty plants in the next 15-years, plus Russia is talking about putting nuclear power plants on ships so they can tie-up to various foreign ports and provide electricity to that country. China has plans to build 50 nuclear power plants. Brazil is enriching uranium and plans on building more nuclear power plants. I would think in the next 15-years the demand for oil drops quite a bit. There's going to be a large demand for uranium.

[bill]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Tet

I would think in the next 15-years the demand for oil drops quite a bit. There's going to be a large demand for uranium.

I agree.

Especially when the "Green Clean" boys get this done.
http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://ipcc.bravehost.com/

[Tet]

Re: Point Benita, Nike missile site, “CCP discount”, and the inverted yield curve

Despite of Gross’s complaint about “yield conundrum”, since he cannot “curve trade” between 3-M Libor, 2Y T, and 10Y T any more, Fed has been “stubborn” in refusing cutting the rate.

If US economy actually “bottomed” or will bottom out in Q1 or Q2 2007 during its current mid-cycle slowdown as seen by Fed, there is further room for yield curve to invert.

Ok, even Fed is right, where I am going to be paid for taking “risk” if bond yield is just sum of growth rate and inflation premium? Where is the term premium on the long end of the curve? Gross would ask.

My answer is: term premium probably is still there, and it had seen recently around March 29, 2007 in bond market. But largely, the economic and political volatilities the term premium is supposed to cover are hard to perceive and project these days, or largely balanced out by “the CCP discount”.

Good stuff, what are your thoughts on the May 9 Fed meeting? Cut, no cut, business as usual, or does the risk become growth, or do they still peddle inflation? Thanks.

[marketreflections]

no rate cut, as seen by the “inverted yield curve”

Fed not likely to cut rate, more likely to stay where it is now, as seen by the “inverted yield curve”.
fficeffice" />
ffice:smarttags" />US economy is more of goldilocks now, even Buffet said today subprime is not an issue.

I am afraid that “euphoria of goldilocks” is catching up, pushing indexes highter, and M&A guys, the big “capitalists” have just been doing that for a while, and small ones start to jump in with their two feet.

Thanks