A trader's market commentary

[bart]

Re: A trader's market commentary

"A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him".

-- John Maynard Keynes

[bart]

Re: A trader's market commentary

The most interesting thing to me about custodials recently is how fast they're growing - almost 20% annually and over 30% on a quarterly rate of change basis.

The agency portion is growing even faster than the overall growth rate of treasuries plus agencies - over 40% annually and almost 55% on a quarterly rate of change basis.

[flow5]

Re: A trader's market commentary

Great chart. Sure wish I had the maturity distribution of loans and securities for foreign accounts; the thought being the shorter the duration, the more vulnerable the exchange value of the dollar.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: A trader's market commentary

ATTN moderator:
Please stop/close this insanely long thread. This forum software makes navigating such long threads very frustrating.

[DemonD]

Re: 060807 My self criticism of the week

I was not prepared for this week’s rout in my mind, thinking that market just went through a correction not long ago. Well, we had a 3% “dip”.

Ideologically, I am “biased” on the long side.

This is the problem with TA. when the market turns, what happens when your TA doesn't model the downturn? Would any TA have predicted crashes in 1929 or 1987?

If you were more FA based, you would be in a bearish bias, at least with my FA that's what I'm seeing. When market downturns occur, it is always due to fundamentals.

I don't discount TA for daily trading activities, especially if TA is self-fulfilling with PPT propping up the markets. But for anything more than a day's worth of trading, to do so in the absence of FA would be foolish IMO.