USD may have legs

[icm63]

What does the large volume mean?
Price reversals require large volume.
Price trends usually have solid average volume...
Something is going on with the $USD, is it the fact that EUR is in a mess with its banks and sovereign debt.
UUP001.gif
UPDATE : This dollar rally is on higher VOLUME than the decline. If we get a low volume test of lows from here, this would be a sign of a TREND CHANGE..

[fliped42]

Re: USD may have legs

What does the large volume mean?
Price reversals require large volume.
Price trends usually have solid average volume...
Something is going on with the $USD, is it the fact that EUR is in a mess with its banks and sovereign debt.
[ATTACH]2635[/ATTACH]

I agree with you that one of the larger risks is a sudden spike in the dollar. As all assets seem to be negatively correlated with the dollar this may be short term bearish for the markets. Or it could it just be the Tarp banks repatriating dollars from other currencies to pay down the government loans. $100,000,000,000 has to come from somewhere and it needs to be in Dollars.

[Dr.No]

According to our work, the U.S. dollar index has a massive resistance range from 77.69 to 82.07...

According to our work, the U.S. dollar index has a massive resistance range from 77.69 to 82.07, with the strongest resistance present roughly from 79 to 82.

[jpatter666]

Re: USD may have legs

Possible prepping for the upcoming option expiration?

[Mega]

Re: USD may have legs

Rally into the New Year, then a massive slip back to 71
Mike

[Dr.No]

One slip, and down the hole we fall

One slip, and down the hole we fall
It seems to take no time at all
A momentary lapse of reason
That binds a life for life
A small regret, you won't forget
There'll be no sleep in here tonight

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWbjhoWWnww

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHi46A9A5_w

[Counterpoint]

Re: USD may have legs

ffice:smarttags" name="place">The dollar started to reverse trend around Thanksgiving which is a typical year-end phenomenuon as traders (me) roll up positions and repatriate. Plus, Europe is degenerating rapidly and the bloom is coming off the Euro. The rally will probably play out until the second or third week of January.

[Dr.No]

Re: USD may have legs

We thought the Euro was the totally bestest currency in the whole wide world - even better than gold since the Europeans have no problems of their own?

[GRG55]

Re: USD may have legs

We thought the Euro was the totally bestest currency in the whole wide world - even better than gold since the Europeans have no problems of their own?

I am very fond of the Euro because the notes have nice pictures of bridges and arches, none of which really exist. A fitting metaphor for a fiat currency, non?

[Raz]

Re: USD may have legs

Today is Friday, December 18th. IF the March '10 US Dollar Index CLOSES above 77.58 there will be no doubt that an intermediate low has been seen in the Bernanke Bonar. Among other things it is almost certain to give us the six to eight week choppy correction in gold that Finster talked about.

Why is this happening? All I can say is that the ground was prepared for this sprout by HUGELY lopsided negative sentiment; perhaps the catalyst is the recognition that European banks are in far worse shape than ours?
Even though the Bonar is long-term screwed, perhaps at this "moment in Fiat time" it's the best looking horse in the glue factory.

PS. I just posted some excellent chartwork on the US Dollar Index from October 29th, with an update attached at the end (p. 7).
Look under "Gold Market Research" in the Resources section.

[icm63]

Re: USD may have legs

here is the link: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11844

[jk]

Re: USD may have legs

i don't think the dollar is going up; i think the euro is going down. since they are both just pieces of paper, they need to measured against real goods. as i type, the price of oil is 73.52 [i'd rather track oil than gold, since the latter is so noisy.] so the dollar hasn't gained purchasing power; the euro has lost value instead.

this is in keeping with our predicted long term trend: fiat currencies will bounce around measured against one another, while they all lose purchasing power in real terms.

[icm63]

Re: USD may have legs

i don't think the dollar is going up; i think the euro is going down.

Jes wayne...

The glass is half empty or half full.

But there is still 50% water in the glass.

The $USD will move higher, as other currencies considered very pretty are suddenly considered ugly.

[jk]

Re: USD may have legs

The $USD will move higher, as other currencies considered very pretty are suddenly considered ugly.

for clarity of thought, i prefer to say the dollar INDEX is rising; looking at commodities- real things- i see the dollar is flat; looking at currencies, i see the euro and yen are down a bit relative to the dollar.

it's worth keeping things clear- someone might see "the dollar is up" and foolishly think the value of a dollar has actually gone up, when no such thing has occurred.

[Dr.No]

Re: USD may have legs

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2850473&id=140608094660

The U.S. Dollar Index closed the week almost precisely at the bottom of its major resistance range:

According to our work, the U.S. dollar index has a massive resistance range from 77.69 to 82.07, with the strongest resistance present roughly from 79 to 82.

To turn bullish on the U.S. dollar vs. other paper currencies for anything more than an intermediate term rally, we'd have to see a weekly close near 83 or better. Only at that point would a much larger rally become likely.