Are we in Recession Yet/Still?

[Glenn Black]

http://politicalcalculations.blogspo...by-gallon.html

Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)

[flintlock]

Re: Are we in Recession Yet/Still?

Recession Smession. I don't really care about what is technicaly a recession or not. What matters is unemployment, and I don't see that improving much anytime soon with average work week down to about 34 hours. Any recovery now is merely going to result in employers adding a few hours to the payroll each week. Without FIRE artificially creating demand, we have more people than we need to function effectively. The question is what do we do with these people. High unemployment will result in an ever growing government to employ and care for these people, requiring more tax dollars. Rinse, lather, repeat.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Are we in Recession Yet/Still?

Recession Smession. I don't really care about what is technicaly a recession or not. What matters is unemployment, and I don't see that improving much anytime soon with average work week down to about 34 hours. Any recovery now is merely going to result in employers adding a few hours to the payroll each week. Without FIRE artificially creating demand, we have more people than we need to function effectively. The question is what do we do with these people. High unemployment will result in an ever growing government to employ and care for these people, requiring more tax dollars. Rinse, lather, repeat.

great summary. I'm going to borrow that, thanks.