Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

[WildspitzE]

Interesting read, by ZH.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eme...ver-prior-week

"The number you won't hear mentioned anywhere in the Mainstream Media: 327,729. That is how many people shifted to Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs in the last week alone, hitting an all time record high of 4.2 million! So as everyone is focused on the benign picture of initial claims in the last week which was "only" 474,000, the number of people rolling off continuing benefits has exploded and is now a stunning 592,579 only in the last two week. Look for this number to keep going into the stratosphere as the 6 month continuing claims cliff keeps getting hit by more and more people who are unemployed and keep looking not only for believable change, but actual jobs to go with it.

..."

[BadJuju]

Re: Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

But this is the beginning of a rally! Things are turning around. Did you not see the numbers after Thanksgiving?! -11,000!

[pescamaaan]

Re: Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

i'm confused...dec 7th the markets went bananas because the number of unemployed changed by -11k, not the 110k the market expected. but then new unemployment claims are +474k....

can someone explain the disconnect?

[Gnosis]

Re: Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

Read 1984..........
Bad news is good news, and so forth. Everybody has a stake in the Titanic hop-scotch and upper deck chair shuffle. Pay no attention to the emergency. Only the PTB survive this and they have left the ship. You get to stay and enjoy the show. Have a nice swim.

[c1ue]

Re: Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

---

i'm confused...dec 7th the markets went bananas because the number of unemployed changed by -11k, not the 110k the market expected. but then new unemployment claims are +474k....

can someone explain the disconnect?

It is called the birth/death model.

Note also that UI claims are actually about 664,865 - seasonally adjusted to the 474K number.

This is better than last year - UI unadjusted was 759,531 (adjusted 552K) but is still far from good.

To put both numbers in perspective, here are the historical month of November numbers going back to Y2K:

	Initial Claims			Continued Claims
	N.S.A	S.F.	S.A.	N.S.A	S.F.	S.A.
11/4/2000	342,414	103.4	331,000	1,774,889	84.1	2,110,000
11/11/2000	294,727	92.7	318,000	1,972,938	91.3	2,161,000
11/18/2000	374,160	112.7	332,000	1,898,521	83.3	2,279,000
11/25/2000	321,859	90.3	356,000	2,394,176	104.3	2,295,000
11/3/2001	443,971	101	440,000	3,181,759	88	3,616,000
11/10/2001	456,366	106.6	428,000	3,180,486	87.7	3,627,000
11/17/2001	420,259	97.4	431,000	3,141,998	82.9	3,790,000
11/24/2001	438,893	89.3	491,000	3,721,973	103.6	3,593,000
11/2/2002	397,346	98.2	405,000	3,137,165	88.2	3,557,000
11/9/2002	427,078	106.8	400,000	3,100,218	87.6	3,539,000
11/16/2002	372,829	95.8	389,000	3,263,052	94.9	3,438,000
11/23/2002	436,549	112	390,000	3,106,044	89.4	3,474,000
11/30/2002	385,788	102.2	377,000	3,618,507	106.3	3,404,000
11/1/2003	345,573	95.3	363,000	3,025,662	88.3	3,427,000
11/8/2003	397,387	107	371,000	2,996,756	87.1	3,441,000
11/15/2003	347,719	94.1	370,000	3,137,692	94.2	3,331,000
11/22/2003	397,990	112.5	354,000	2,949,992	88.4	3,337,000
11/29/2003	357,811	100.1	357,000	3,397,952	102	3,331,000
11/6/2004	351,404	106.4	330,000	2,388,670	86.4	2,765,000
11/13/2004	311,901	92.6	337,000	2,528,643	93.4	2,707,000
11/20/2004	355,954	113.7	313,000	2,331,862	86.2	2,705,000
11/27/2004	320,690	95.6	335,000	2,880,075	104.3	2,761,000
11/5/2005	340,491	104.8	325,000	2,364,283	86.1	2,746,000
11/12/2005	283,564	92	308,000	2,564,292	93.1	2,754,000
11/19/2005	368,859	114.4	322,000	2,302,708	85.1	2,706,000
11/26/2005	290,730	94.4	308,000	2,695,927	104.9	2,570,000
11/4/2006	326,711	102.5	319,000	2,110,151	85.7	2,462,000
11/11/2006	286,151	92.1	311,000	2,269,427	92.6	2,451,000
11/18/2006	367,690	114	323,000	2,074,608	84.1	2,467,000
11/25/2006	323,509	94.2	343,000	2,620,460	104.9	2,498,000
11/3/2007	325,831	99.7	327,000	2,292,297	88.5	2,590,000
11/10/2007	351,760	106.2	331,000	2,293,829	88.6	2,589,000
11/17/2007	323,124	98.3	329,000	2,217,292	83.2	2,665,000
11/24/2007	324,047	94.1	344,000	2,725,542	104.3	2,613,000
11/1/2008	466,341	95.6	488,000	3,460,633	88	3,933,000
11/8/2008	539,787	106.1	509,000	3,521,971	87.6	4,021,000
11/15/2008	513,000	96.2	533,000	3,782,040	94.1	4,019,000
11/22/2008	609,138	117.2	520,000	3,652,990	89	4,104,000
11/29/2008	535,730	103.6	517,000	4,493,526	103.2	4,354,000
11/7/2009	531,743	105.4	505,000	4,883,537	87	5,613,000
11/14/2009	475,700	95	501,000	5,082,476	93.5	5,436,000

Hardly a turnaround to be seen still.

[Rajiv]

Here's the real story on America's unemployment In Prior Week

Here's the real story on America's unemployment

KEY DATA: Real total U.S. (U-6) unemployment exceeds 17 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Take-away: The modern office/factory-model job as we know it actually could be headed for extinction.

I'm one of the many casualties of the Great Recession. My position -- along with 200 others -- was eliminated 13 months ago at a major nonprofit organization in Colorado Springs. Permanently.

Oddly, I keep finding myself referring to it as a "layoff." It's not like there's going to be any callback. Is it denial? Perhaps in part. (Reality and I aren't on the best speaking terms right now.)

More likely, however, it's a kind of collective future shock. Some of our thinking just hasn't quite caught up with the realities of this Brave New Economy. We tend to assume, for example, that when recovery comes (and it's right around the corner, the partisan cheerleaders keep promising), we're going to pick right back up where we left off pre-recession.

Well, probably not.
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