Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

[icm63]

The real chance of 4.5% 10 yr yield will bring back the buck ($USD).

As gold has been a pure inverse dollar trade, it seams the selling off of GLD has more volume on the down side rather than the up side. Thats not healthy. Doesnt mean it would not go back up, just saying its a bit sick...
GOLDSick001.jpg

[Gnosis]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

The real chance of 4.5% 10 yr yield will bring back the buck ($USD).

As gold has been a pure inverse dollar trade, it seams the selling off of GLD has more volume on the down side rather than the up side. Thats not healthy. Doesnt mean it would not go back up, just saying its a bit sick...
[ATTACH]2574[/ATTACH]

The author of this chart twice misspelled seems as seams. Perchance the seams are coming undone?

[grapejelly]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

the downside with gold and silver seems to happen real quick compared to the slower up moves...it is definitely assymmetric

[jpatter666]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

the downside with gold and silver seems to happen real quick compared to the slower up moves...it is definitely assymmetric

Downside with just about *anything* these days seems that way. Grinding moves up, panic moves down.

[Raz]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

This doesn't look so healthy either. If gold has been purely a "reverse Dollar trade" then the Dec. '09 Dollar needs to close above 76.50 at a minimum - and really needs to close above 77.50 - to provide an impetus for a DEEP sell-off in gold.

It might happen, because it has clearly taken out the 36 bar Simple MovAvg, even though the MACD remains below the Zero line;
but, should it happen it's likely to be the margin clerks who set it off - not "investors" seeing value in the Bernanke Bonar.

[icm63]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

Sorry for spelling mistakes, the HTML editor and me dont get on !:confused:

[medved]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

The real chance of 4.5% 10 yr yield will bring back the buck ($USD).

As gold has been a pure inverse dollar trade, it seams the selling off of GLD has more volume on the down side rather than the up side. Thats not healthy. Doesnt mean it would not go back up, just saying its a bit sick...
[ATTACH]2574[/ATTACH]

It is very healthy (and predictable) for me. Parabolic rises are never stable, so for the last month I was selling some of my mining stocks and call options on them and now I am waiting to buy them back (and I have already put some solid protective stops below my calls).

Besides, gold is not pure reverse $US trade. Since 2001 dollar lost about 35% and gold went up ~4.5 times. Gold is pure reverse global financial system trade, and we know most of this so-called system is worthless garbage.

[Tybee Island]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

Gold is a hedge against bad government. Who here believes their gold is worth less today than it was a week ago, regardless of what the dollar has done in less than a week of trading sessions?

[GRG55]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

...Besides, gold is not pure reverse $US trade. Since 2001 dollar lost about 35% and gold went up ~4.5 times. Gold is pure reverse global financial system trade...

Thanks for pointing this out; it's exactly what I was thinking as I read the original post...

[WildspitzE]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

Heck even kitco knows this.

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html#RT

[Guest]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

Always great and highly focused comments from Raz. I'm betting the USD will rally easily above 77.50 in weeks to come though. Trend breaker move possible.

This doesn't look so healthy either. If gold has been purely a "reverse Dollar trade" then the Dec. '09 Dollar needs to close above 76.50 at a minimum - and really needs to close above 77.50 - to provide an impetus for a DEEP sell-off in gold.

It might happen, because it has clearly taken out the 36 bar Simple MovAvg, even though the MACD remains below the Zero line;
but, should it happen it's likely to be the margin clerks who set it off - not "investors" seeing value in the Bernanke Bonar.

[Jay]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

The real chance of 4.5% 10 yr yield will bring back the buck ($USD).

As gold has been a pure inverse dollar trade, it seams the selling off of GLD has more volume on the down side rather than the up side. Thats not healthy. Doesnt mean it would not go back up, just saying its a bit sick...
[ATTACH]2574[/ATTACH]

See I told all of you it was a top. ;):p I increased my net position at $1195 by 4% to get to 45%. I have nailed almost every top with precision. Now, what does it say that I am still WAY ahead and am not sweating this one, one iota. Time and knowledge are my friends.

[Raz]

Re: Gold (GLD) sell off not healthy: So far !

Well it looks like the Bonar just might be making an intermediate low and beginning a significant rally.
It will have to CLOSE above 77.50 basis December '09 (the November '09 High) to convince me.

Dollar Breaks Above Critical Overhead Resistance

By Corey Rosenbloom

December 10, 2009 - 2:48pmI wanted to show two quick charts of the US Dollar Index that highlight key breakouts above specific overhead resistance levels that could be the beginning of a major rally in the event that the breakout levels holdFirst, let's take an "Advanced" look at the Andrews Pitchfork Tool:

[1
Without going into too much detail, notice that price broke the Midline of the large Andrews Pitchfork trendline tool in Late October. Since then, price has supported twice on the midline, which suggests a potential early change in trend. Again, this is bullish as long as price remains above this level.I'm also showing the 3/10 MACD Oscillator (known as a "Momentum" oscillator) and its lengthy positive momentum divergence, which also tends to appear prior to a trend reversal. Simple divergences do not argue for trend reversals but lengthy or 'multi-swing' divergences do enhance the odds for reversals.

Now, let's move away from the "advanced" methods and look at the 50 day Exponential Moving Average along with two simple trendlines.

[2]

The current 50 day EMA rests at the $75.80 index level, which currently has been broken to the upside with the recent rally in the Index. Notice price has remained underneath this level since the April 2009 rally which was short-lived.Along with the positive break of the 50 day EMA, we have two trendlines broken - one beginning with the March 2009 highs (which was the S&P 500 Market Bottom) and the second - which connects more price highs - began with the July 2009 price highs (when the market was forming the failed "Head and Shoulders" pattern at the July lows).These are all significant technical (price) developments that need to be monitored very closely for signs of continuation... or any sign the prevailing downtrend would crush these nascent bullish developments.

Any move back under these levels would erase the bullish signals these charts are sending (good places to locate stops for ETF traders) but otherwise, we could be seeing the beginnings of a powerful retracement swing up at minimum... or at best (for the Dollar) a short or intermediate term trend reversal to the upside.
Keep watching this development very closely and be aware of the 'ripple effects' a full positive trend reversal would have across other markets (particularly bearish for Gold and Crude Oil).


Corey Rosenbloom, CMT