Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

[Dr.No]

Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

Gold reached our forecasted short-term target of $1200 +/- about 2 percent, and we closed our gold and silver futures trading positions at gold $1190 and silver $18.83 (we usually close trading positions at least a percent or two before the expected target, as ideal targets routinely get over or undershot by a couple percent). The odds absolutely did not favor maintaining our long trading position with gold stretched about as far above its 10 week moving average as it normally ever gets. Of course, we did not sell our long-term gold investment position held since early 2003. Looking at the first chart, gold has pulled back after touching the old 2005-2007 trendline (it has now pulled back from that line three times since September 2008).

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium appear to be having a short term correction - probably of about 6 to 10 percent from the high for gold (for some reason about 9 percent is common). We are looking to re-enter our long gold, silver and GDXJ (Junior Gold Miner ETF) trading positions when gold trades closer to its 10 week (50 day) moving average (currently around $1090 and rising about $3 per day).

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1260169500.php

[ASH]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1260169500.php

The trailing stop loss on the half of my paper PM position that is for trading triggered today, so I do hope the correction goes far enough to create a worthwhile buying opportunity.

[grapejelly]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

The trailing stop loss on the half of my paper PM position that is for trading triggered today, so I do hope the correction goes far enough to create a worthwhile buying opportunity.

bizarro, gold has recovered its entire loss and is now a gain so far for the day...

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

Bull markets never give late-comers delicious buying opportunities, and when they do, you had better be out of that market completely.:rolleyes:

[ASH]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

bizarro, gold has recovered its entire loss and is now a gain so far for the day...

Joke's on me. C'est la vie. Guess I'll wait a bit to see how this resolves and maybe re-enter.

[grapejelly]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

Joke's on me. C'est la vie. Guess I'll wait a bit to see how this resolves and maybe re-enter.

'tis very bullish short term for gold, ain't it?

I would like to see a good intermediate term correction, myself. Down to $980. But it never cooperates, does it?

[cjppjc]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

The trailing stop loss on the half of my paper PM position that is for trading triggered today, so I do hope the correction goes far enough to create a worthwhile buying opportunity.

The exact same thing happened to me three weeks or so ago. I'm still waiting for the right reentry point. I hate to chase them. Man trailing stops suck.:mad:

[ASH]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

The exact same thing happened to me three weeks or so ago. I'm still waiting for the right reentry point. I hate to chase them. Man trailing stops suck.:mad:

... Until they save your ass.

I just think I suck at calibrating the trailing value.

Nothing is monotonic forever. However, it looks like this might not be the next moderate correction -- and therefore I was trailing too closely.

On the other hand, I've held a major paper PM position for awhile (major relative to my own net worth; not major in absolute terms), so getting stopped out of half of it doesn't mean realized losses -- just smaller realized gains. So long as there isn't a sudden dollar crisis, my trading position should be okay in cash for a little bit (and a sudden crisis is what the core position is for). Maybe the market will present me with a good entry point for energy; maybe gold will resume its gradual march higher and I'll go back to a (kinda crazy) 80% position.

[cjppjc]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

... Until they save your ass.

I just think I suck at calibrating the trailing value.

Nothing is monotonic forever. However, it looks like this might not be the next moderate correction -- and therefore I was trailing too closely.

On the other hand, I've held a major paper PM position for awhile (major relative to my own net worth; not major in absolute terms), so getting stopped out of half of it doesn't mean realized losses -- just smaller realized gains. So long as there isn't a sudden dollar crisis, my trading position should be okay in cash for a little bit (and a sudden crisis is what the core position is for). Maybe the market will present me with a good entry point for energy; maybe gold will resume its gradual march higher and I'll go back to a (kinda crazy) 80% position.

Seasonally this is not the time for a real correction in gold. These companies are like riding the tiger.

[goadam1]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

'tis very bullish short term for gold, ain't it?

I would like to see a good intermediate term correction, myself. Down to $980. But it never cooperates, does it?

Mr. Bernanke put a put under all the markets.

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. economy faces “formidable headwinds,” including a weak labor market and tight credit that are likely to produce a “moderate” pace of expansion.

“The economy confronts some formidable headwinds that seem likely to keep the pace of expansion moderate,” Bernanke, 55, said today in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington. He said inflation remains “subdued” and might even move lower.

Treasuries advanced as traders pared bets the central bank will increase interest rates before August. Bernanke, in response to a question after his speech, repeated the Fed’s statement that rates are likely to remain low for an “extended period.”

[Dr.No]

I've only been expecting a minor correction in gold at this point

I've only been expecting a minor correction in gold at this point. Seems too early for an intermediate correction based on prior runs in gold during this bull market.

Will buy back our trading position a couple percent above the 50 day moving average whenever and at whichever level that occurs (knowing that it could easily fall a couple percent below even during a minor correction), or if there is a nice sideways consolidation and a renewed breakout.

P.S. My definition of a minor correction in gold is one that does not last more than a couple of months (they can hit bottom in as little as a week or two), and does not see a drop in the gold price of much more than about 10%, often less).

[Raz]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

'tis very bullish short term for gold, ain't it?

I would like to see a good intermediate term correction, myself. Down to $980. But it never cooperates, does it?

This is a Daily bar chart I keep of February 2010 Comex Gold.
Once again my favorite chart technician made an excellent call on the Gold market.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...34341#poststop







His most recent comments are in the orange box on the chart. (The Sell arrows on the chart are short-term MACD signals which have only indicated shallow corrective periods.)

We didn't even trade below 1035.80 today. (Today's low was $1,036.10)
IF we CLOSE below it then the correction will become more pronounced and Feb '10 Gold should trade down to at least $1096.00. Even so the Bull Market in gold would remain intact, unless we CLOSE back down into the breakout pattern, below $1026.50.

Today's price action in the US Dollar Index was pathetic, and unless the Spot Future (DXZ9) CLOSES above 76.50 there is no indication of an intermediate low in the Bonar. With "Bubbles" Ben in charge of monetary policy, a clueless, gutless spendthrift congress in charge of fiscal policy, the CPI numbers being manipulated, etc., there is little reason to hold Bonars - until the Fed loses control of the yield curve.

All of these reasons together are why I bought more GTU today.

[Jay]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

I have been steadily increasing my gold allocation for months. This little pop and then slide hasn't fazed me a bit. It's a short lesson showing what the leg up is going to feel like when things really hit. No one will be able to get in at any decent price who hasn't already at that time. Physical will be difficult to obtain. I say these things fully realizing that a drop of more than 25% is not only possible but has already happened to me in the past. I worried about unrealized losses at the time, they are now heavy in the black. I'm over worrying about month to month fluctuations. It's in or out for me. As a few have wisely stated here, gold is not only a financial decision, but it is also a statement about the affairs of the world on many levels.

[Raz]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

I can recognize a fundamental Bull Market when I see one and it certainly helps to have EJ's guidance in that analysis.

Those of you who don't choke and gag :eek: at the very mention of technical analysis might want to follow this hyperlink to a post I just made on the thread "Gold Market Research" under Resources.

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread....814#post137814


*Investing without technical analysis is like driving with one eye closed*
*Investing without fundamental analysis is like driving with both eyes closed!*:eek:

[ViC78]

Re: Gold Correcting as Anticipated, but Major Rally Likely to Continue into Spring 2010

might want to follow this hyperlink to a post I just made on the thread "Gold Market Research" under Resources.

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread....814#post137814


*Investing without technical analysis is like driving with one eye closed*
*Investing without fundamental analysis is like driving with both eyes closed!*:eek:

Raz -

Thanks a lot for your continued updates to the resources section. You are a gentleman and a scholar