Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Treasuries went down, dollar went up because of good employment numbers and expectations that feds may hike rates.

Itulipers have blinders on. Hope we don't crash into something.

Japan can not sell treasuries. If they do, they risk increasing the value of the yen, the last thing they want to do right now.

The exporting world has a straightforward choice - either stop saving & start stimulating domestic demand and stop being dependent on exports to the US or suck it up and buy UST/USD.

Obama can ride it out. He's happy to see a world where the USD devalues and the US can re-develop it's export biz and hires more blue collar workers .. it'd be good for him. If not, he's happy to borrow money until the world screams uncle. Either way, he wins.

If you think about it, the emerging markets, japan have been complicit in the situation we are in today. They liked all the biz they were getting by a strong USD dollar so they pumped it up.

[xela]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Will gold do a mini OIL sell off...BUY GOLD UNDER $1000, oops $800 maybe!

Tell you what, I'll buy gold the moment it closes in on 1100.. you wait for 800
In the meantime I bought some TBT at 44, its not a contrary trade or mutually exclusive to bet on both.

[Sapiens]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

When the US primary dealers buy Treasuries, they pay cash right?

Cash in the form of Demand Deposits.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Tell you what, I'll buy gold the moment it closes in on 1100.. you wait for 800
In the meantime I bought some TBT at 44, its not a contrary trade or mutually exclusive to bet on both.

Just make sure you're making a short term bet on UST with TBT, because long term decay will eat you alive.

[bill]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Thats the effect of a strong yen. So they export there whole infrastructure instead of exports and have a comfy managerial and financial class at home? But many get poorer? Who does that sound like?

I'm pretty sure they want to weaken the Yen.

For now they are taking advantage of a strong yen.
BTW if you want low cost labor and week currency ,Shenzhen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qVc45ZHc&pos=2

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. signed an $82 billion contract, Australia’s biggest energy deal, to supply liquefied natural gas to Tokyo Electric Power Co. and sell the Japanese utility a stake in its Wheatstone project.

[grapejelly]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

correction could take gold down below $1000 temporarily, but so what. I don't think that a price lower than $1000 will last very long if it does come to that, and prices will barrel ahead to $1400 before long. I guess we have to see prices dip to $600 before we lose our bullishness

[goadam1]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

correction could take gold down below $1000 temporarily, but so what. I don't think that a price lower than $1000 will last very long if it does come to that, and prices will barrel ahead to $1400 before long. I guess we have to see prices dip to $600 before we lose our bullishness

I seriously doubt gold will go below it's 2007 prices when the "crisis" began. Of course, we could have some kind of economic miracle. Where is your bet. Besides I would love a drop below $1000. I was getting ready to buy more physical at around $900 when the market went bananas. It was nice to ride a hot paper trade up. But I'm ducking out of the paper trade. I can't take that kind of volatility.

[phirang]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Imagine what happens to gold if employment #'s in Jan are POSITIVE...

*insert waterfall image*

The market thinks Ben is behind the curve. Ben has ALWAYS been behind the curve, btw, and market thinks he's racing behind the scenes to accelerate tightening.

This is a crucial junction: either this is a headfake, or we've got a few months of positive job prints. If that's the case, then gold is destined to go below 1000 in the short-term.

[rjwjr]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Imagine what happens to gold if employment #'s in Jan are POSITIVE...

*insert waterfall image*

The market thinks Ben is behind the curve. Ben has ALWAYS been behind the curve, btw, and market thinks he's racing behind the scenes to accelerate tightening.

This is a crucial junction: either this is a headfake, or we've got a few months of positive job prints. If that's the case, then gold is destined to go below 1000 in the short-term.

It's a head fake. Being on the front lines of the real non-FIRE economy, I can tell you that hiring is the last thing on our minds.

[c1ue]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Hiring numbers in January being positive is the least likely of all possible scenarios.

January is when the Birth/Death model numbers are revised towards reality:

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdhst.htm

Preliminary Estimates	Jan 08	Feb 08	Mar 08	Apr 08	May 08	Jun 08	Jul 08	Aug 08	Sep 08	Oct 08	Nov 08	Dec 08	Total
Mining & Logging(1)	-2	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	2	1	0	1	12
Construction	-74	9	28	45	42	29	1	16	12	7	-7	-8	100
Manufacturing	-36	4	7	-10	9	7	-14	4	3	-6	3	3	-26
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities	-64	11	22	24	31	20	-12	21	20	23	17	20	133
Information	-20	5	2	3	5	1	-5	4	1	1	3	3	3
Financial Activities	-37	10	6	8	9	8	-4	9	8	13	5	18	53
Professional & Business Services	-100	39	23	72	23	22	-2	23	10	43	11	10	174
Education & Health Services	-11	17	2	31	11	-5	3	16	18	30	10	10	132
Leisure & Hospitality	-20	35	44	83	77	86	44	26	-35	-40	-12	12	300
Other Services	-14	4	7	10	8	7	-8	4	3	-1	0	3	23
Total	-378	135	142	267	217	177	4	125	42	71	30	72	904

Preliminary Estimates	Jan 07	Feb 07	Mar 07	Apr 07	May 07	Jun 07	Jul 07	Aug 07	Sep 07	Oct 07	Nov 07	Dec 07	Total
Mining & Logging	-2	1	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	8
Construction	-52	11	27	49	40	26	8	15	12	14	-3	-9	138
Manufacturing	-23	3	6	3	7	7	-10	4	3	-5	4	2	1
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities	-29	10	19	30	29	19	-13	22	16	28	24	23	178
Information	-9	5	0	7	5	-1	-3	3	-3	4	4	3	15
Financial Activities	-17	11	8	26	7	6	6	11	6	25	8	17	114
Professional & Business Services	-48	28	21	44	19	20	-5	20	6	36	12	5	158
Education & Health Services	10	12	1	47	13	-9	5	14	11	39	11	9	163
Leisure & Hospitality	1	34	39	95	75	81	44	26	-36	-37	-10	14	326
Other Services	-6	3	6	14	7	6	-8	4	1	-1	1	2	29
Total	-175	118	128	317	203	156	26	120	17	103	51	66	1130

Preliminary Estimates	Jan 06	Feb 06	Mar 06	Apr 06	May 06	Jun 06	Jul 06	Aug 06	Sep 06	Oct 06	Nov 06	Dec 06	Total
Mining & Logging	-4	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	3
Construction	-55	10	27	36	39	29	-8	14	10	8	-8	-7	95
Manufacturing	-25	3	5	-1	7	9	-21	2	5	-4	3	2	-15
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities	-36	10	21	23	26	20	-28	23	19	24	20	20	142
Information	-8	4	-1	7	4	-2	-6	6	-6	4	7	-1	8
Financial Activities	-11	10	8	19	5	6	-11	7	3	19	4	9	68
Professional & Business Services	-59	29	30	62	33	28	-8	22	10	30	1	12	190
Education & Health Services	14	12	2	31	13	-4	-4	16	11	33	10	7	141
Leisure & Hospitality	-5	33	37	85	76	81	38	25	-28	-41	-9	11	303
Other Services	-4	5	6	8	7	7	-10	5	3	-1	1	2	29
Total	-193	116	135	271	211	175	-57	121	28	73	29	55	964

You have to go back probably more than a decade before B/D January adjustments are positive.

So your attempt at a provocative statement seems pretty weak.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

If employment continues to surprise on the positive side gold could drop substantially.

[cjppjc]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Jan 1st price was around 875 It won't start 2010 below that. I would cry if it goes back below 1000. A large round number like that should hold.

[xela]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Most certainly, and true for all the double (or triple) leveraged ones.

[jpatter666]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Jan 1st price was around 875 It won't start 2010 below that. I would cry if it goes back below 1000. A large round number like that should hold.

Well it's getting ready to crack 1100 as I type. Where are the supports for gold? Icm or Raz -- you out there?

Finster, as I recall you said big moves (and I think this qualifies?) are bad for gold -- right?

[jneal3]

Re: Get Ready!!! Not So Fun Ride Ahead!!!

Unemployment doesn't seem to be rapidly abating:

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than anticipated filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week, a reminder that the labor market will take time to strengthen and may weigh on the economic recovery.
Initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 480,000 in the week ended Dec. 12, from a revised 473,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today

Head fake.