Job loses 11,000?!

[goadam1]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

1. Pump
2. Lie
3. Dump
4. Lie
5. Squeeze
6. Repeat

Remember:



Good dogs are priceless - don't forget to feed him today.

Duh! Bernanke confirmation, xmas shopping. Plus most of the real gains of the cycle were bought by July!!!

But don't fight were we are in the cycle. People were out in NY like it was 2006.

[goadam1]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Thanks for sharing Jim. Jesse's tongue-in-cheek sarcasm had me laughing out loud after reading the first few paragraphs. "Now that's entertainment!" Priceless.

Jesse also said to trade out of Gold.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Jesse also said to trade out of Gold.

I'd appreciate the link if you have it handy. I'm interested in the full context.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

I bought more GTU 30 minutes ago.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

The economy lost 11,000 jobs AND 100,000 previously unemployed are no longer being counted. If you think that is positive news then your head is up your ass. Take it from a business owner and employer...the near term future is for shit.

Gold is on sale as a result of this "jobs euphoria" though. I bought more GTU 30 minutes ago.

Now gold is REALLY on sale. It's the PPT's alter ego, the Plunge Creation Team, at work?!

Oh well, EJ says the gold market is too global and too liquid to be manipulated for long. Buying opportunity!

I wouldn't be surprised to see China, India, Russia and others load-up on some more IMF gold. Can you say price backstop?!

I love the smell of chaos in the morning!

[jiimbergin]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Jesse also said to trade out of Gold.

Jesse said that earlier this week when gold hit 1225. And it was only his trading account that he was selling not his base holdings.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Good one, Cow. I just love sarcastic humor...even when I'm the brunt of it. I can only hope I'll have the last laugh...once the price rebounds.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Gold continues on sale. Just added to my CEF holdings this time. (Sure hope there's a bottom here soon though).

[we_are_toast]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Gold continues on sale. Just added to my CEF holdings this time. (Sure hope there's a bottom here soon though).

Just bot some Feb Calls on GLD, just so you won't feel so bad if you're wrong.;)

[c1ue]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

This is much better than expected! Calls into question our pessimism about the jobs market.

Besides Jesse's analysis, the actual press release also revealed major revisions to September and October:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.

This is interesting - the government apparently underestimated jobs by 80000 in September and 79000 in October.

Given that revisions have pretty much uniformly been in the other direction for many years, I'd say this is curious.

I'm reserving judgement until the January Birth/Death model updates.

On a separate note - I watch population delta vs. non-farm labor force changes as a sanity check on government numbers.

Here's the population change vs. labor force change since 2000:

Year (Jan)	Size Labor Force	YoY Labor Force Chg	US Population	Pop. Change
2000	141228		282158336
2001	142828	1.13%	284915024	0.98%
2002	143228	0.28%	287501476	0.91%
2003	145301	1.45%	289985771	0.86%
2004	146068	0.53%	292805643	0.97%
2005	147125	0.72%	295583436	0.95%
2006	149090	1.34%	298442420	0.97%
2007	151924	1.90%	301279593	0.95%
2008	152828	0.60%	304228257	0.98%
2009	153445	0.40%	307212123	0.98%
Nov-09	153877	0.28%
To Date vs. 2000		8.65%		8.88%

As you can see, the long term trend of the civilian labor force seems to more or less track well with population growth (real and projected).

However, any given year has significant deviations in the labor force growth. 2009 is shaping up to be the smallest growth in labor force since 2002.

While this may be an artifact of the normal hiring/firing cycle, it is awfully convenient that the labor force grows least in recessionary times. Note this isn't unemployment or UI claims - this is the estimation of all those who can or want to work.

The peaks also all seem to be on the years prior to Presidential elections...

[sishya]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

I bought some physical Gold today when it was $1168/oz. But I am getting a bit skeptical about Gold Miners. If the Stock Market goes down, it can take Gold stocks with it but then there is also more upside.

Any one have any idea about the new Junior Gold Miners - GDXJ ?
Surprising today UNG went up when other commodities were going down

[don]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Another comment on the 11,000 jobs lost. As an employer, it is getting harder to find people to fire. Small businesses are down to critical employees, friends, and family members remaining on payrolls. The large "headline" job losses may be behind us...the recession is not. Without another stimulus/cash for clunkers type program, economic activity for 4thQ 2009 will not be good, 1stQ 2010 worse.

I'm against any additional stimuli by the way. I'm simply providing my front-line opinion that economic activity is dry right now.

Another comment from the trenches. My daughter works at an engineering/inspection company. All the field guys get company trucks whose leases can be terminated monthly. Her note from this morning:

I have 9 leased trucks sitting either at an office (unused) or with someone working little to none. None of these are billable to a project. By the end of the month, we will have another 10 trucks in that situation. Potential of 19 more lay offs in the next three weeks. Most likely we will keep only those few critical employees you are talking about.

Her company topped out at around 135. Now down to the 70s and falling.

[strittmatter]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

You people are like flies at a picnic, I swear. The "Save Ben" campaign is well underway, and real world nonsense like this - just not the way to go here, don:

Another comment from the trenches. My daughter works at an engineering/inspection company. All the field guys get company trucks whose leases can be terminated monthly. Her note from this morning:

I have 9 leased trucks sitting either at an office (unused) or with someone working little to none. None of these are billable to a project. By the end of the month, we will have another 10 trucks in that situation. Potential of 19 more lay offs in the next three weeks. Most likely we will keep only those few critical employees you are talking about.

Her company topped out at around 135. Now down to the 70s and falling.

save ben = stay physical

[grapejelly]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

November is a shorter month when you consider 30 days and the effect of the holidays that don't have job losses counted during them.

[ASH]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

November is a shorter month when you consider 30 days and the effect of the holidays that don't have job losses counted during them.

That just reminded me. Sometimes, when one has a bit of discretion, one doesn't lay people off immediately before Thanksgiving or the holidays. At least this seems to be true for smaller employers where the boss knows the workers personally.