Job loses 11,000?!

[we_are_toast]

U.S. non-farm payrolls fall by 11,000 in November

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut a far fewer-than-expected 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007, government data showed on Friday, strongly suggesting the deterioration in the labor market was in its final stages.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from a 26-1/2 year high of 10.2 percent in October. The government revised job losses for September and October to show 159,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.


Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 130,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 10.2 percent.
The data will take some pressure off President Barack Obama, a day after he appealed to the corporate sector, at a jobs summit he hosted, to join in the administration's employment creation efforts.

This is much better than expected! Calls into question our pessimism about the jobs market.

[GRG55]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

This is much better than expected! Calls into question our pessimism about the jobs market.

Doesn't have anything to do with Bernanke's confirmation hearings then?

[And yes, I do believe that Oswald acted alone...]

[goadam1]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Anyone unwilling to admit we were wrong about reflation and the reflation trade is in serious denial. The reflation pushed up gold, as predicted, as a side effect. We can talk about the decline in productive jobs and monster debt and we will be right on some level at some point. But we missed a pretty good low.

[GRG55]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Anyone unwilling to admit we were wrong about reflation and the reflation trade is in serious denial. The reflation pushed up gold, as predicted, as a side effect. We can talk about the decline in productive jobs and monster debt and we will be right on some level at some point. But we missed a pretty good low.

Anybody that thinks the US is out of the woods should have a look at this [from Calculated Risk].

Looks like this "recession" is going to combine the worst characteristics of percentage job losses from the early post-WWII recessions with the "jobless recoveries" of 1990 and 2001.

But you are correct...we are certainly well into Poom mode. As EJ kept repeating...NO deflation...

[we_are_toast]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Doesn't have anything to do with Bernanke's confirmation hearings then?

[And yes, I do believe that Oswald acted alone...]

:p

Now let's not cross over into the twilight zone here.;)

I don't buy into these numbers are being faked. The formula or methodology might be completely crazy. It sure doesn't seem to be in line with the weekly unemployment numbers.

If we don't understand if or why these numbers are off, we're going to have a hard time making a profit on our pessimistic investments. Maybe someone here has some insight as to why these numbers may not be accurate, other than they're created by people behind the grassy knoll in Dallas.

Anyone unwilling to admit we were wrong about reflation and the reflation trade is in serious denial. The reflation pushed up gold, as predicted, as a side effect. We can talk about the decline in productive jobs and monster debt and we will be right on some level at some point. But we missed a pretty good low.

I think we've been wrong on several things lately. Whatever happened to Poom? Is this really Poom? If it is, it feels a lot different than what I expected. We can't win them all, but are we maybe straying on the wrong path?

[Jay]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Wow, cool graph.

[unlucky]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

I don't buy into these numbers are being faked. The formula or methodology might be completely crazy. It sure doesn't seem to be in line with the weekly unemployment numbers.

The formula surely is crazy, but it's the same crazy formula as used last month. While the number "11,000" may be quite meaningless, it can and will be taken as an indication of a dramatically improving job market.

If we don't understand if or why these numbers are off, we're going to have a hard time making a profit on our pessimistic investments. Maybe someone here has some insight as to why these numbers may not be accurate, other than they're created by people behind the grassy knoll in Dallas.

The market will assume that Bernanke is within sight of raising rates. Gold and USTs are already falling. The top in gold has been made for now, I would guess.

[ricket]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

On average, what is the lightest month in terms of shedding employees?

Could the upcoming holidays have anything to do with these numbers? Perhaps given all of the workplace shootings and the upcoming holidays employers were reluctant to lay off people?

Also, with so much "easy" money floating around out in the economy, that doesnt necessarily mean the economy is any more productive and thus growing. It could just mean enough loans have been issued to non-productive businesses to allow them to keep floating through the holidays and Bernanke's confirmation. The first thing that a lot of business may do to avoid laying people off is to see if they can get some immediate cash. With so much "reserves" created by Bernanke that are sitting in bank coffers, maybe they have increased their lending to businesses to keep them afloat?

[BadJuju]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

This really means nothing, I believe. Come back in a few months when reality sets in once more.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

The economy lost 11,000 jobs AND 100,000 previously unemployed are no longer being counted. If you think that is positive news then your head is up your ass. Take it from a business owner and employer...the near term future is for shit.

Gold is on sale as a result of this "jobs euphoria" though. I bought more GTU 30 minutes ago.

[strittmatter]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

This really means nothing, I believe. Come back in a few months when reality sets in once more.

1. Pump
2. Lie
3. Dump
4. Lie
5. Squeeze
6. Repeat

Remember:



Good dogs are priceless - don't forget to feed him today.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

The economy lost 11,000 jobs AND 100,000 previously unemployed are no longer being counted. If you think that is positive news then your head is up your ass. Take it from a business owner and employer...the near term future is for shit.

Gold is on sale as a result of this "jobs euphoria" though. I bought more GTU 30 minutes ago.

Another comment on the 11,000 jobs lost. As an employer, it is getting harder to find people to fire. Small businesses are down to critical employees, friends, and family members remaining on payrolls. The large "headline" job losses may be behind us...the recession is not. Without another stimulus/cash for clunkers type program, economic activity for 4thQ 2009 will not be good, 1stQ 2010 worse.

I'm against any additional stimuli by the way. I'm simply providing my front-line opinion that economic activity is dry right now.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Here is a good post by Jesse

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...eport-its.html

just one quote from a long article

The improvement in the unemployment rate was largely due to people dropping off the radar of the government as their benefits run out. You can see this if you look at their estimate of the population of available workers. The number is shrinking, and the people drop into the 'discouraged' category.

This is revealed by what is called the "Labor Participation Rate." It dropped in November from 65.1% to 65%. Less people are working against a more stable measure of the population, civilian workers over the age of 16 that have not disappeared.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Obama called the "market" bottom in March, determined the worth of 20 year-old chevy's, and decided that housing prices should not fall further. Why the need to be nervous about conspiracy accusations?

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Here is a good post by Jesse

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...eport-its.html

just one quote from a long article

The improvement in the unemployment rate was largely due to people dropping off the radar of the government as their benefits run out. You can see this if you look at their estimate of the population of available workers. The number is shrinking, and the people drop into the 'discouraged' category.

This is revealed by what is called the "Labor Participation Rate." It dropped in November from 65.1% to 65%. Less people are working against a more stable measure of the population, civilian workers over the age of 16 that have not disappeared.

Thanks for sharing Jim. Jesse's tongue-in-cheek sarcasm had me laughing out loud after reading the first few paragraphs. "Now that's entertainment!" Priceless.