Surviving the Economic Collapse

[jneal3]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I have a question: once one starts down the 'doomster' thought process path, is there ever any turning back? Is there any time in history when the news has been so good that a previously hopeless person will weigh all the information and decide things are getting better and it's okay to sell the guns and buy into a future?

Seems like a high potential for this to be a life-ruining dead-end.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I have a question: once one starts down the 'doomster' thought process path, is there ever any turning back? Is there any time in history when the news has been so good that a previously hopeless person will weigh all the information and decide things are getting better and it's okay to sell the guns and buy into a future?

Seems like a high potential for this to be a life-ruining dead-end.

I was a "doomster" in the late 70s and early 80s. Although I never sold my gun or gold or junk silver, I did believe things were going to get better after Paul Volcker was in office for a couple years and they did.

[Raz]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I was a "doomster" in the late 70s and early 80s. Although I never sold my gun or gold or junk silver, I did believe things were going to get better after Paul Volcker was in office for a couple years and they did.

I read everything about Volker I could get my hands on after Carter appointed him. I immediately decided that if I didn't want to spend the rest of my life scratching out a living in the boondocks I should exit the farming business.
Boy was I right. 20% interest rates killed the Great Inflation of the 1970s - and it also killed the price of farmland.
Six years after we sold our farm we could have bought it back for half of the sale price.

If we see a fundamental change in the financing of Congressional, Senatoral and Presidential elections (public financing of them?) along with a restoration of contract money (gold, copper, wheat or damn near anything other than pure Fiat bullcrap) then my pessimism will be replaced with more than hope: it will become truly optimistic!

Until such time I will keep my PMs and will not look at equities as a "buy and hold" but as a "rent to own".

[grapejelly]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I have a question: once one starts down the 'doomster' thought process path, is there ever any turning back? Is there any time in history when the news has been so good that a previously hopeless person will weigh all the information and decide things are getting better and it's okay to sell the guns and buy into a future?

Seems like a high potential for this to be a life-ruining dead-end.

this is a really, really good point. I suppose most of us don't "pick" being a "doomster" -- it is our nature. A lot of folks here on iTulip are probably like that, selected by the "doomster" meme and forever living under it's burden.

What can chaange your attitude is being a trader. I am not a good trader. But good traders cannot POSSIBLY be doomsters except short term if they live in lucky (falling market) times.

But there is reality. Reality is different from "doomsterism." Reality is that money is being depreciated and that results in significant events that can easily go out of control and change availability of food, clean water and our lifestyles. Easily.

I don't think it's doomsterism to be aware of this, and to take precautions. I am glad I don't live in fear, becuase I really don't. It is possible to prepare and NOT live in fear. I am an example.

[jneal3]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I don't think it's doomsterism to be aware of this, and to take precautions. I am glad I don't live in fear, becuase I really don't. It is possible to prepare and NOT live in fear. I am an example.

For me what comes to mind is the old saw, 'he who increaseth knowledge also increaseth sorrow'; I was blissfully unaware of Argentina's parallels to the USA until I happily discovered iTulip, now I'm better prepared for a future that seems plausible, but not happy about it. Feels like a very slippery slope at this point. Plus, I can look back at actions I've taken in the past that have worked out extremely well, that had I had a more 'doomster' take on things I probably wouldn't have taken the chances.

I guess the trick is to walk this line, and as you said, successful trading might be the way to stay grounded.

[grapejelly]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

For me what comes to mind is the old saw, 'he who increaseth knowledge also increaseth sorrow'; I was blissfully unaware of Argentina's parallels to the USA until I happily discovered iTulip, now I'm better prepared for a future that seems plausible, but not happy about it. Feels like a very slippery slope at this point. Plus, I can look back at actions I've taken in the past that have worked out extremely well, that had I had a more 'doomster' take on things I probably wouldn't have taken the chances.

I guess the trick is to walk this line, and as you said, successful trading might be the way to stay grounded.

I have a friend who has made a great amount of money this year by buying bank stocks. I wouldn't have been able to buy bank stocks...

[GRG55]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

this is a really, really good point. I suppose most of us don't "pick" being a "doomster" -- it is our nature. A lot of folks here on iTulip are probably like that, selected by the "doomster" meme and forever living under it's burden.

What can chaange your attitude is being a trader. I am not a good trader. But good traders cannot POSSIBLY be doomsters except short term if they live in lucky (falling market) times.

But there is reality. Reality is different from "doomsterism." Reality is that money is being depreciated and that results in significant events that can easily go out of control and change availability of food, clean water and our lifestyles. Easily.

I don't think it's doomsterism to be aware of this, and to take precautions. I am glad I don't live in fear, becuase I really don't. It is possible to prepare and NOT live in fear. I am an example.

Real doomsters never make any money. You have to have some optimism about the future to bet on it...

[Verdred]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

this is a really, really good point. I suppose most of us don't "pick" being a "doomster" -- it is our nature. A lot of folks here on iTulip are probably like that, selected by the "doomster" meme and forever living under it's burden.

What can chaange your attitude is being a trader. I am not a good trader. But good traders cannot POSSIBLY be doomsters except short term if they live in lucky (falling market) times.

But there is reality. Reality is different from "doomsterism." Reality is that money is being depreciated and that results in significant events that can easily go out of control and change availability of food, clean water and our lifestyles. Easily.

I don't think it's doomsterism to be aware of this, and to take precautions. I am glad I don't live in fear, becuase I really don't. It is possible to prepare and NOT live in fear. I am an example.

Though, even within doomsterism there are many paths to agonize over. I think it says something about the relative wealth and security of most people (on this site or America in general, take your pick) that their primary concern with a societal collapse is in crime from below.

An equally plausible, if not much more probable, scenario is the continuing crime from above in which people are driven into or made to stay in poverty to provide a higher standard of living for those at the top. If the world's resources are starting to dry up, it only means that more people are going to have to be driven into poverty. If you find yourself suddenly surrounded by half-starving looters then it is probably because you are suddenly in the 4th world: a first world converted back into third world by peak oil (death by natural causes) or by global economic plunder (death by goldman sachs).

Take the situation right now. a person dies from starvation every 3.6 seconds. 20,000 kids a day. something like 7 million a year. and all that's artificial collapse (generally access to arable irrigated land, etc) okay, so what's not collapsey about that? the only difference is that it hasn't rolled to your neck of the woods yet. Police forces in major US cities are maybe only a half-step from military grade and could quickly ramp up. Any widespread outbreaks of violence and crime would be met with swift response. And if resources were limited... summary executions. Or work camps: once industrial agriculture and global commerce become too expensive...

I do wonder if the international masters of finance are salivating over the US. We do have a lot of resources. The fire-sale could go deeper, ala Russia post Soviet...

I just thought that the 1984 high-tech dark ages of total control from above scenario should gets its two-cents in...

Side note 1, like hayekvindicated said, if you can afford to flee, that is your best scenario. That is why I stay as liquid as possible. if one american city collapses, perhaps others will not, and that is where I will spend my remaining resources to get to.

Also, a handgun might be nice for concealment but most people can't hit shit with it. Even within ten feet the rate of success with a handgun in live scenarios is abysmal (I'm talking about even highly trained individuals). At fifty feet even i can knock a clay pigeon out of the air with a buck shot - plenty of damage against a close range opponent. If your neighborhood is a war-zone I don't think concealment will be such an issue. Better to not have to clint-eastwood your pistol out of its holster as the marauding hoardes are descending upon you.

[Master Shake]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

Fernando "Ferfal" Aguirre has written a terrific survival guide "based upon first hand experience of the 2001 economic collapse in Argentina."

It is loaded with spelling mistakes and almost stream of consciousness writing. But I dare you to pick it up anywhere and stop reading.

It's a great read.

Some of his conclusions fly in the face of conventional wisdom. He makes some great points.

1. The country is more dangerous than the city in a collapse. The country is too isolated and hard to protect and vulnerable to crime. In urban neighborhoods neighbors can protect each other or pay for security more readily, and police can assist.

2. The center of the city is better than the 'burbs, so long as they aren't the run down center. People want to move into the center because of jobs, and the lack of affordable transportation.

3. A shotgun is not as good as a handgun. It is clumsy to maneuver and its lack of concealment is a real bummer.

4. It is important to have PMs but junk jewelry is most valuable as would be junk silver in the US. You want to be the guy or gal who is hawking a bit of the family jewelry, wedding ring, or length of gold chain, rather than the rich guy with gold coins.

A lot of other stuff in here that is very worthwhile if you believe in SHTF scenarios at all.

I've read Ferfal before and it's a good read. However, I think he greatly exagerates how bad things were in Argentina. My in-laws are Argentine, and while things got bad, they weren't like he described. Not for them at least.

[Wild Style]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

Now that I've thought about this, I don't agree. The affluent parts of major cities will be quite safe. That is one thing you can be sure of. That doesn't mean there won't be a lot more crime, or some riots. But they will be contained. Cities with strong gun rights are going to be fine. I am not sure I'd want to be in NYC or Chicago, although Manhattan and downtown Chicago should be fine near, say, The Loop.

I don't know about that. Being from Brooklyn and knowing how Manhattan is laid out, all bets could be off. It is not like all of Manhattan is affluent. Also not like the less affluent areas of manhattan are isolated from the affluent ones, they are just blocks away in some cases. Go check out LES (Lower East Side), Washington Heights, and parts of East Harlem. As for Chicago, its pretty much the same story, check out the South Side and the West Side (my wife is from Chicago). Also check out parts of Rogers park. Heck I remember back in the days, people would stick up the entire train from the last car to the first car in NYC. It was like jesse james and the train robberies all over again. Let you NOT have money on those days you got caught in this madness. That was a automatic punch in the face. I think IF there was such a break down in society all bets would be off.

[grapejelly]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I've read Ferfal before and it's a good read. However, I think he greatly exagerates how bad things were in Argentina. My in-laws are Argentine, and while things got bad, they weren't like he described. Not for them at least.

I think it has to do purely with your socioeconomic situation. If you have money and live in Recoleta, it's a different world from what Ferfal describes. If you live on the Upper East Side in Manhattan, it's one world as opposed to some of the dodgier parts of Brooklyn.

I don't know about that. Being from Brooklyn and knowing how Manhattan is laid out, all bets could be off. It is not like all of Manhattan is affluent. Also not like the less affluent areas of manhattan are isolated from the affluent ones, they are just blocks away in some cases. Go check out LES (Lower East Side), Washington Heights, and parts of East Harlem. As for Chicago, its pretty much the same story, check out the South Side and the West Side (my wife is from Chicago). Also check out parts of Rogers park. Heck I remember back in the days, people would stick up the entire train from the last car to the first car in NYC. It was like jesse james and the train robberies all over again. Let you NOT have money on those days you got caught in this madness. That was a automatic punch in the face. I think IF there was such a break down in society all bets would be off.

That's interesting. But there has been a huge buildup of militarization amongst the police powered by the FIRE-economy financing and the "war on terror" and so I'm not sure we'd see that today at all. In fact I think we wouldn't.

Neighborhoods will be locked down with a "papers please" siege mentality and a great deal of regimentation. You see it now all the time. And people will be all for it. With rationing, public food banks "odd and even" days to buy essentials, etc.

[Master Shake]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I think it has to do purely with your socioeconomic situation. If you have money and live in Recoleta, it's a different world from what Ferfal describes. If you live on the Upper East Side in Manhattan, it's one world as opposed to some of the dodgier parts of Brooklyn.

Exactly. But the vision Ferfal presents is bleak and widespread. That's not true. Like you said, it all depends on where you live.

Most of my in-laws live in Bariloche, a resort town, so they were somewhat isolated from the worst effects of the crisis. But the ones living in BsAs didn't have a Mad Max scenario to deal with. They are educated and upper middle class, though.

[raja]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

1. The country is more dangerous than the city in a collapse. The country is too isolated and hard to protect and vulnerable to crime. In urban neighborhoods neighbors can protect each other or pay for security more readily, and police can assist.

I disagree with Ferfal when he says the countryside will be more dangerous than the city in a collapse . . . .

1. Where I live in rural America, the crime rate is very low. People around here usually don't lock their doors, and often leave expensive stuff lying out in the yard. We sometimes hear of criminals from the nearby big city who drive in and steal 4-wheelers, but most of the crime is teenager stuff.
If things get bad, whatever crime and violence exists anywhere will just go to a higher level, so the city will be much less safe than the country, as it is now.

2. Almost everybody in this farming community has guns, and they know how to use them . . . rifles for deer hunting and 22s for varmints (with scopes that could discourage any strangers with bad intentions lurking in the distance). Any potential thief knows this.

3. There is a lot of food grown here, and most people have gardens. If the SHTF, there will be far fewer starving people looking for food compared to the cities. But actually, I expect that the gov't would take over the food industry, with ration cards for all, so I don't think we'll see starving, roving gangs from the city pillaging the countryside.

4. I'm expecting gas prices to soar if the SHTF. That would make it difficult for robbers from the city to foray out to the countryside. Would they drive 2 hours for a couple of chickens and a few heads of cabbage? What would city boys do with a tractor?

5. Population density makes it much more time-efficient to rob in the city. It takes a lot less time per house to go through a city neighborhood looking for homes where people might not be home.

6. On one point I do agree with Ferfal . . . it would be easier for neighbors to spot a break-in in a city neighborhood. If someone lives in a really isolated place in the country, they are ripe for a home invasion (if they don't have any security). But in our case, there are many homes in the valley, and most are visible from the road or within sight of neighbors.

All that said, we're still expecting crime to increase everywhere as the economy goes downhill, so I've taken several steps to enhance our security, including installing:

* a wall safe with interior bolts to the studs; about $105 (includes shipping) http://www.buyerschoiceusa.net/Secus...afe-P40437.htm

* security lights around the house, barn and storage building

* an alarm system in the storage building with an exterior horn alarm so we can hear intruders

* an additional gate on our long driveway with a heavy chain and tough lock, to prevent criminals from driving up. We leave it open for now, but will begin to use it if conditions warrant.

* a driveway alert so we know if someone has entered the drive

* If things get really bad, we will get a big, nasty outdoor dog.

A determined thief can defeat ANY visible means to protect valuables when you're not at home, aside from a huge safe mounted in concrete. The best defense is guile . . . and layers of protection. You have to understand how criminals think to mount an effective defense.

I recommend this free and fascinating website that contains all the info you ever wanted to know on the criminal mind and how to defeat it: http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/propertycrime.html

And finally, some comments on gold coins . . . .

Gold coins can be used to store wealth until after the "recovery", when they could again be used safely.

Obviously, it would not be good to let it become common knowledge that you have a stash of gold coins. On the other hand, the occasional use of gold coins, especially for anonymous large purchases (car, tractor, property) outside of one's immediate locale, is not very dangerous.

Even if you use junk gold jewelry or silver coins, that would that signal to someone with larcenous tendencies that there might be a valuable stash in your home worth stealing. Of course, gold coins indicate a likely bigger treasure, but it pays to be cautious with any show of wealth when times are hard.

I've been thinking about buying a rusty clunker to park out in front of the house if the SHTF. Relaxing my routine of regular house maintenance would also be benficial. Shabbiness is a crime deterent :eek::eek:

[Starving Steve]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I just saw a re-run of the old movie, Escape from Alcatraz. That famous escape took place in 1962.

What really impressed me was how downright civilized and gentlemenly the inhabitants of Alcatraz were in 1962. If those were the "bad apples" of America in 1962, the country has truly gone to hell in the last forty-seven years.

To think that gangsters like Al Capone wore suits with shirts and ties to their gang meetings! If only an Al Capone, a Lucky Luciano, or a Micheal Corleone could have met the garbage in the street gangs of America to-day!

[MulaMan]

Re: Surviving the Economic Collapse

Yes, America is a third world country already.

Glad you Americans are starting to see yourselves in the mirror...as the rest of world has seen you for 20 years.