Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

[Mega]

Well worth watching:-
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...ient=firefox-a#

Mike

[MulaMan]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Excellent.

Wage inflation and labor protections and unions are the way out as I've always said. Massive transfer of wealth back to the middle class.

[0tr]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Fred Harrison saw this coming a long time ago too. See his website, www.renegadeeconomist.com

Fred is an economist mentioned, along with EJ and others, as predictors of the crash, in that article somewhere on this site, can't remember where it is right now,

And Fred predicted it a long time ago also.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Excellent.

Wage inflation and labor protections and unions are the way out as I've always said. Massive transfer of wealth back to the middle class.

Spot-on. A strong middle class is worth having for a thousand good reasons.

[Adeptus]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Excellent.

Wage inflation and labor protections and unions are the way out as I've always said. Massive transfer of wealth back to the middle class.

I'm afraid I would disagree with the general advocation of unions across all sectors. There's a place and time for unions, but they too can get out of control. Unions in the IT sector can be very counter productive to productivity & competitive advantage, they slow things down and sometimes get a little ridiculous with the amount of red tape they impose.

In a similar manner, we've just witnessed the collapse of the auto sector in some (small but relative?) part due to unions. Wage protection & inflation in a globalization environment where your country's labour is one of the most expensive just doesn't make sense, sooner or later the company implodes.

There are no catch-all perfect solutions, including non-union environments. It's all about maintaining the equilibrium relative to fairness in labour & labour payment practices as well as consideration of the competitive environment... stray too far in any one direction (over the top unions or excessive lack of employee labour fairness) and it's practically guaranteed things will go sideways at some point.

Adeptus

[Shakespear]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Yes, excellent video. Charlie Rose is on late at night where I was living, implying that a small segment of pop. probable watches him. You could say "For good reasons, there is too much good information on his show." :mad:

Just heard this on a Berlin Jazz station

Tony DeSare - Baby, Dream Your Dream
Baby,
Dream Your Dream.
Close your eyes and try it.
Dream of furniture;
Dream that I can buy it.
That fancy bed you prayed for,
Not only bought but paid for.
Dream we sign the lease,
Leave a small deposit;
Three and one-half rooms
With a walking closet.
We'll ask the local Jet-set
To dine on our dinette-set
Right across the street,
There's a friendly bank.
You make a friendly loan,
And the bank says: "Thank you."
Ev'ry Saturday,
We'll spend all our money.
Join the P.T.A.;
They will love you, honey.
Life will be frozen peaches and cream.
Baby, dream Your Dream.

[Shakespear]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Is it true that he died within 2 weeks of being diagnosed with cancer? This is stated in this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maouTP8vTO0

:eek::confused:

PS: NYT says he had cancer for 4 years before dying.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Excellent hour. Very much worth the investment of time. The first 11 minutes are golden. I am so tired of the "nobody knew" rationalizations. Our intellectual class is so bankrupt it is sad. Can we reboot America like they rebooted Star Trek, James Bond, and Batman?

[Shakespear]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

At 50 min. is the Gem regarding DERIVATIVES !!!!!!;)

Try this video

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...14&hl=en&emb=1

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Listening to this(only part), I thought of Jacob Marley.
And I'm sure its' not just the calendar and accent that
brought that character to mind.

"MANKIND should have been my business...":eek:

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Well worth watching:-
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...ient=firefox-a#

Mike

What incredible prescience. Also, it shows that a man with money is not necessarily a man with no national loyalty. He obviously loved Britain and Europe and didn't want to see it de-industrialised with free trade.

HOWEVER, there are many good points to be made against what he says. Germany and Japan are both high wage economies that have run massive trade surpluses during the period between 1994 and 2009. They were clearly NOT de-industrialised by this phenomenon. The economies of the "Anglosphere" suffered the most - as is evidenced by massive trade deficits and debt levels.

I think what this proves is that there is no substitute for very high quality school education (hard sciences) and high levels of capital investment if a high wage country is to compete in a world dominated by global free trade. Singapore and Hong Kong both have the lowest tariff levels on earth but have extremely high savings rates and run trade surpluses even though wages are a lot higher than India and China.

Free trade is not the cause of problems (and if it is, then certainly not by itself). The character and nature of the labour market is the key to this.

Addendum: Laura DAndrea Tyson = management school idiot, MBA = the most useless degree ever invented.

[unlucky]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

HOWEVER, there are many good points to be made against what he says. Germany and Japan are both high wage economies that have run massive trade surpluses during the period between 1994 and 2009. They were clearly NOT de-industrialised by this phenomenon. The economies of the "Anglosphere" suffered the most - as is evidenced by massive trade deficits and debt levels.

Japan has taken a path that few would want to follow, but the example of Germany definitely poses a conundrum for those who argue that western workers can't compete.

I still can't quite figure out how the Germans do it. Most english-language economic commentary on Germany consists of anglosphere economists writing the country off as uncompetitive, inflexible and out-dated. Yet when you visit Germany, it's obvious that they have excellent infrastructure, a very good quality of life, strong social supports and a low cost of living. Until recently they were the largest exporter in the world, and on a per-head basis they still are - by far.

Maybe anglo economists should stop dismissing Germany and start trying to learn. It will at least give them something to do, now that their beloved financial whizz-machines have disappeared into a smoking hole in the ground.

[GRG55]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

...Addendum: Laura DAndrea Tyson = management school idiot, MBA = the most useless degree ever invented.

Early this year I was watching some of proceedings from Davos and happened to catch one panel that included Dr. Tyson.

From 02 02 09:

As was discussed on another thread a short time back, the Obama economic team appointments are pretty well all from Goldman alumnus Robert Rubin's dugout. Summers, Geithner, the lot. All except Volcker, who we can hope will prevail...but who knows.

They claim the current catastrophe was unable to be predicted, and some claim that even if it had been predicted it was unpreventable. All this despite ample public evidence to the contrary, iTulip included.

Each evening last week I watched a number of the interviews and panels from Davos. It became a painful exercise. The financial elite are on the defensive, claiming over and over that the regulators were at fault, not them. I listened to so many high profile participants make this claim, including JP Morgan's James Dimon and former chair of the National Economic Council, Laura Tyson, I almost threw up [Tyson actually looked for absolution from the moderator because some members of her family lost money with Madoff :p ].

The probabilities seem to be stacking up that we should expect more of the Hank Paulson strategy of moving debt from private to public balance sheet, and not much else. They all came out of the same school.

I suppose if I had lost money with Madoff, I'd be blaming the regulators instead of myself too...:rolleyes:

[ASH]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

I still can't quite figure out how the Germans do it. Most english-language economic commentary on Germany consists of anglosphere economists writing the country off as uncompetitive, inflexible and out-dated. Yet when you visit Germany, it's obvious that they have excellent infrastructure, a very good quality of life, strong social supports and a low cost of living. Until recently they were the largest exporter in the world, and on a per-head basis they still are - by far.

I keep reading that the Germans managed to control their labor cost increases relative to other European countries. There is a table in this BLS report on international trends in manufacturing productivity and unit labor costs which has some comparisons:

                             Average annual rates of change(1)
 
 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
 Country or area           1979-2008     1979-1990     1990-1995     1995-2000     2000-2008     2006-2007     2007-2008
 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
                                   Hourly compensation{3}: National currency basis
 
 United States                4.5           5.6           3.4           4.5           3.8           4.3           3.0
 
 Canada                       4.6           6.8           3.6           2.9           3.3           3.5           2.1
 Australia                     NA            NA           3.7           4.0           5.1           5.3           2.7
 Japan                        2.6           4.6           3.6           1.2           0.3          -0.2           1.8
 Korea, Republic of            NA            NA          18.9           8.6           8.8           6.4           2.0
 Singapore                     NA            NA           7.6           2.2           0.6          -0.7           0.5
 Taiwan                       6.9          12.1           7.2           3.4           1.9           3.2           1.3
 
 Belgium                      4.3           6.1           3.8           2.0           3.7           5.3           3.0
 Denmark                      5.3           8.1           2.9           2.9           4.5           2.6           3.4
 France                       5.6           9.1           4.5           2.8           3.4           2.7           3.0
 Germany(2)                   4.3           5.6           6.4           3.1           2.2           1.7           2.5
 Italy                        7.0          12.5           6.1           2.7           2.9           2.2           2.6
 Netherlands                  3.9           4.1           4.5           3.4           3.6           3.2           3.3
 Norway                       6.3           9.0           3.4           5.2           5.1           4.8           5.6
 Spain                        7.1          11.4           8.2           1.4           4.3           4.9           4.8
 Sweden                       6.0           9.1           3.7           4.8           3.9           4.8           3.0
 United Kingdom               6.6          10.5           3.5           4.7           4.5           3.3           2.5
 
                                     Unit labor costs{3}: National currency basis
 
 United States                0.6           2.7          -0.3          -1.0          -0.7          -0.4           1.7
 
 Canada                       2.3           4.6           0.3          -0.9           2.5           0.8           4.8
 Australia                     NA            NA           2.4           0.5           3.5           3.2           3.6
 Japan                       -0.8           0.7           0.3          -2.1          -2.9          -3.6           2.0
 Korea, Republic of           4.5           8.1           8.7          -2.0           1.3          -1.1           0.8
 Singapore                     NA            NA           0.6          -4.1          -0.1           3.2           7.5
 Taiwan                       1.2           5.6           2.3          -2.1          -3.1          -5.2           1.7
 
 Belgium                      1.0           1.8           0.7          -0.4           0.8           0.8           2.4
 Denmark                      3.1           5.7           0.2           1.1           2.7           2.2           8.3
 France                       2.0           5.1           1.0          -1.7           0.8           1.5           3.8
 Germany(2)                   1.3           3.3           3.4          -0.5          -1.4          -3.2           2.7
 Italy                        4.7           8.8           2.2           1.2           3.1           1.7           6.2
 Netherlands                  0.7           0.8           0.7           0.1           0.9           0.5           4.7
 Norway                       4.5           6.9           3.3           3.7           2.3           5.0           4.9
 Spain                        4.6           7.8           4.9           0.5           2.7           2.5           5.8
 Sweden                       1.7           6.9          -1.8          -1.9          -0.8           4.2           6.9
 United Kingdom               3.1           6.1           1.1           1.9           0.9          -0.1           2.2
 

It appears to me that Germany kept a lid on its labor cost increases relative to its major European neighbors (France, Italy, Spain, UK), but not relative to the USA or Japan. I wonder if there were any trade barriers and government subsidies at work which protected European markets from outside competition, thereby allowing German manufacturing to win within the Europen market? Certainly, the Germans are known for concentrating on high-end manufacturing, and that might have insulated them from Asian price competition during the early phase of globalization.

I think the Germans were able to out-compete us on quality, too, because like the Japanese, they were obliged to rebuild their industrial base, and could therefore tool with more modern kit. Their education system is, I think, better at turning out skilled workers. Also, being a more socialized society, I expect that their companies were less burdened by the costs of providing worker benefits directly. This might add up to more cost competitiveness at the high end of manufacturing.

Alas, I am not knowledgeable about this -- only speculating based upon comments I have read elsewhere. I could have my facts wrong. However, my guess about how the Germans did it amounts to (1) avoiding cost competition from the US and Asia either through trade barriers or specializing in the high-quality manufacturing that was the last to be out-sourced, and (2) beating the other European countries within their protective trade bloc on labor cost.

The big problem I see is that just because one country can do something doesn't mean that all can. It might well be impossible to reproduce any given national economic 'miracle' because reproducing the conditions which led to success means those qualities are no longer unique, and therefore cease to be a unique competetive advantage.

[bcassill]

Re: Sir James Goldsmith.....he saw in coming in 94 !

Japan has taken a path that few would want to follow, but the example of Germany definitely poses a conundrum for those who argue that western workers can't compete.

I still can't quite figure out how the Germans do it. Most english-language economic commentary on Germany consists of anglosphere economists writing the country off as uncompetitive, inflexible and out-dated. Yet when you visit Germany, it's obvious that they have excellent infrastructure, a very good quality of life, strong social supports and a low cost of living. Until recently they were the largest exporter in the world, and on a per-head basis they still are - by far.

Maybe anglo economists should stop dismissing Germany and start trying to learn. It will at least give them something to do, now that their beloved financial whizz-machines have disappeared into a smoking hole in the ground.

Much of the German "success" is derived by importing low cost workers from the Middle East and other parts of Europe. My wife talked about growing up in former Yugoslavia where many of the men would leave to go work in Germany. They basically did the lower paying jobs the German nationals did not want to do and were treated like second class citizens to boot. But they would all go back home and build nice houses and drive nice cars since the money they could earn in Germany was a multiple higher than could be made in Yugoslavia at the time.

This is very much the same as America opening up our borders to Mexico and bringing in low cost workers from Central America to work in our factories and other manually intensive industries in order to keep the labor costs down.:rolleyes: