The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

[Mega]

At last the upper-cast SHEEP are getting their warning, low casts are still locked in steer-ish. They find out the truth as the last life boat has gone!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz0Y6k14lTO

Mike

[rjwjr]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

Thanks for sharing, Mega.

In talking about UK, Iceland, Dubai, the article got me thinking as to how wide-spread the destruction seems to be. Is this only the media or is this truly a global meltdown? With so many iTuliper's from so many parts of the world, is there anyone out there in an economy that is doing okay? India, Brazil?

If not, why are there no pockets of prosperity? Was it cheap credit and bubbles everywhere? Was it political incompetence everywhere? Was it US contagion everywhere?

It just seems implausible that the meltdown is global in scope, but maybe that's simply my ignorance of the degree of globalization that exists.

[jtabeb]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

It just seems implausible that the meltdown is global in scope, but maybe that's simply my ignorance of the degree of globalization that exists.

No, make no mistake, it's Global alright.

World-wide credit financed bubble, largest one in the history of the world, don't you know.

Mega has a flair for, well, flair, but in this case, he's right.

NOTHING I've read or seen contradicts that this is a world wide event.

[GRG55]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

Thanks for sharing, Mega.

In talking about UK, Iceland, Dubai, the article got me thinking as to how wide-spread the destruction seems to be. Is this only the media or is this truly a global meltdown? With so many iTuliper's from so many parts of the world, is there anyone out there in an economy that is doing okay? India, Brazil?

If not, why are there no pockets of prosperity? Was it cheap credit and bubbles everywhere? Was it political incompetence everywhere? Was it US contagion everywhere?

It just seems implausible that the meltdown is global in scope, but maybe that's simply my ignorance of the degree of globalization that exists.

I've come to the conclusion that, more now than ever, "prosperity" is a relative thing. There's very much a "have" and "have-not" division building [expanding?] in our societies.

Canada has a strongly egalatarian streak when it comes to personal wealth [the influence of our Scottish & European history, and reinforced by our taxation system]. Where I live in Canada the economy seems to be doing reasonably well. But when one looks a bit below the surface one finds a real split developing. A friend who builds custom homes, and had a fairly dry start to the year tells me his business is going completely over the top. For example, he has four knock-down new builds scheduled for next year in the most expensive historic district in the city - each will cost well over $2 mill Cdn not including the price of buying and knocking down the existing home [a LOT of money for a home here, as the median selling price is $410,000]. The tradespeople I have doing specialty work on my bunker [concrete finishing, cabinet makers, etc] without exception are working flat out, and again all of that is expensive custom homes. Consumer credit in Canada is expanding at an 8% annual rate according to the latest stats...no "de-leveraging" going on here. :eek: Yet.

But at the same time the unemployment rate continues to grind upward, and the local food banks and shelters are setting all-time records for the number of people seeking help.

I noticed something similar when I was back in London, UK last month, where, to my astonishment, Central London was bloody booming. It'll be interesting to find out how retail sales fared in New York this weekend. It would not surprise me if the upscale retailers did quite a good pre-Christmas trade. Given the source of this downturn I would have expected the major global financial centres to be taking the brunt of the fallout, but the complete opposite has happened instead. Perhaps Dubai, a relative newcomer to the financial centre sweepstakes, is an indication that is about to change?

I don't see why it's implausible that the meltdown is global. When an Icelandic bank fails, the UK government has to step in and make good on the insured deposits of that bank's London subsidiary. When the US government bailed out AIG [again and again and again] it was not to save the insurance company, but to stop the risk of cascading defaults because of AIG's numerous US and international counterparties. When a regionally important, but internationally obscure Middle East family investment group defaults it turns out that it has hundreds of lenders from all regions of the world that are now exposed to losses. The media continue to paint the Dubai World announcement as one that will be most damaging to the UK banks but other regions, such as Australia, may be hit even worse. Australia's ANZ has material exposure to Dubai, and a huge amount of the construction management expertise in the Gulf is from Australia. As those formerly well paid people migrate home after years working abroad, it cannot fail to have a measurable impact there.

[vinoveri]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

What I continue to struggle with is this idea of "global insolvency". What does such a thing mean in a world where capital is just paper or digits that can be created at will and apparently ad infinitum? I can see the whole thing collapsing if and when sovereign governments refuse to continue cooperating in the fiat ponzi scheme, but I can still see the case where the whole world, central banks and sovereigns, inflate and deficit spend resulting in a sea of liquidity, rising asset prices, and therefore CONFIDENCE by the masses and the investor class that things can go on like before.

E.G., what does he mean the cupboard is bare? The cupboard is not bare until confidence is lost, and unless and until that occurs (and I'm not convinced it will, at least anytime soon), GB can print and inflate until the cows come home ...

"We've already had one big shock to Britain's financial system as many of our best-known banks teetered on the brink. The Treasury spent hundreds of billions of taxpayers' pounds trying to steady the ship. The financial cupboard is now bare. So what could cause the second wave of the disaster? "

[jpatter666]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

In New York their were lines around the block for the Midnight Thanksgiving openings for the retail sales. Several people I know had to wait 45 min to get into a Mall and then an hour and a half to get into a store. A friend of mine expecting a baby went to a large baby supply store at midnight and said the line was around the block 900 people deep and they left. At our local strip of bars the Wendesday before thanksgiving (a big night out in NYC) said everyone of the 10 plus bars on the strip had lines 20-30 people deep. I have never heard of that in this location. But this may just be a bonus blip. Hard to find specific items (of course the ones my wife wants!) all signs are pointing to an inventory shortage and the need for alot more alcohol. This year you might just have to buy early or the shelves will be bare including Tequilla.

From the DC suburbs (DC's inner suburbs have been doing well). I'm hearing that on Friday lots of crowds trying to get the deals. Today (Saturday) went to several shopping centers and no crowds at all. Very thin traffic.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

So what could cause the second wave of the disaster? "

• Food? See iTulip post: Food/Gold Shortages Reach Breaking Point (Eric deCarbonnel)
• China? See Albert Edwards Calls For The Next Black Swan: Expect Yuan Devaluation Following Deep 2010 Downturn.

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

In New York their were lines around the block for the Midnight Thanksgiving openings for the retail sales. Several people I know had to wait 45 min to get into a Mall and then an hour and a half to get into a store. A friend of mine expecting a baby went to a large baby supply store at midnight and said the line was around the block 900 people deep and they left. At our local strip of bars the Wendesday before thanksgiving (a big night out in NYC) said everyone of the 10 plus bars on the strip had lines 20-30 people deep. I have never heard of that in this location. But this may just be a bonus blip. Hard to find specific items (of course the ones my wife wants!) all signs are pointing to an inventory shortage and the need for alot more alcohol. This year you might just have to buy early or the shelves will be bare including Tequilla.

I dunno about this. I got back from a business trip Wednesday night and just had some friends over for dinner. Thursday night I hung out in Murray Hill after having Thanksgiving dinner at a friend's house - Third Avenue was dead, Friday night I hung out in Chelsea (where I live) - 7th and 8th Aves were dead, and just got back from the East Village (now 11:30 PM Saturday). Avenue A and 1st Ave were dead. I only spend money on food, intoxicants, and rent, so I don't go shopping really. No idea about the shops.

So, I'm a bit suspect of your report.

[medved]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

Thanks for sharing, Mega.

In talking about UK, Iceland, Dubai, the article got me thinking as to how wide-spread the destruction seems to be. Is this only the media or is this truly a global meltdown? With so many iTuliper's from so many parts of the world, is there anyone out there in an economy that is doing okay? India, Brazil?

It seems, Israel is relatively OK.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...982286470.html

[oddlots]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

I believe Bolivia has the best record in the Americas as far as GDP performance through the GFC:

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/200...h-america.html

[tofu2u2]

Re: The Britsh face ARMAGEDDON ! (Mega is happy)

From the DC suburbs (DC's inner suburbs have been doing well). I'm hearing that on Friday lots of crowds trying to get the deals. Today (Saturday) went to several shopping centers and no crowds at all. Very thin traffic.

Im in a suburb of DC at the eastern side of DC (jpatter, in northern VA, is on the western suburb side of DC) and I went to Annapolis Mall & the surrounding shopping "villages" (the western side of Annapolis has become a huge shopping area centered on the mega-mall but the shopping villages stretch our for blocks around the mall). We go to black friday every year and this year was strange: you could drive into any parking lot (in the past, you had to line up to get into a parking lot) and parking were easy to find; the lines in the stores didn't stretch to the back of the store and around to the front (like in years past), this year the lines were about 8 to 10 deep; the people on line weren't each buying a TV or large box electronics (as in years past)but I'd say about 1/2 of the people were buying big box electronics and the CD / DVD racks were emptied of merchandise; the mall was not crowded, especially at Nordstroms, Lucky Jeans, A&F, or the other high end shops.

So while there were people out & about there wasnt the large scale shopping going on that I've observed in past years.