Dubai default !!!!!!!

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

During the Lehman panic, the Dollar staged a very impressive rally. This time, the Dollar is sliding even when people are trying to de-leverage. I wonder if this marks an interesting turning point in the long term decline of the Dollar.

[metalman]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

During the Lehman panic, the Dollar staged a very impressive rally. This time, the Dollar is sliding even when people are trying to de-leverage. I wonder if this marks an interesting turning point in the long term decline of the Dollar.

ej's sept. 18 forecast for a sovereign default before end of yr continues...

ND: You don’t see a repeat flight into dollars?
EJ: Recall the two percent drop in the stock market that happened a few weeks ago September second on the rumor of a major bank failure. What did gold, the fourth currency, do? It rose from $965 to $983. Where is gold today? Comfortably above $1000, which used to comprise some sort of magical threshold as did a dollar index value of 80. If the U.S. were Argentina, with our external debt denominated not in our domestic currency but in dollars as a foreign currency, in these circumstances foreign capital will be heading for the exits, out of pesos and into dollars. But as the risk in this case is in dollar denominated assets, the pre-flight is into alternatives to government issued currencies and into hard currencies.

ND: Where is the evidence that the U.S. and the dollar have lost safe haven status?
EJ: Markets are gradual shifting in the perception of currency and default risk but have not expressed this shift in decision processes.

How’s this for incongruity. The lead front page story in last Friday’s Wall Street Journal “Dollar Sinks to Low for Year” reads, “The dollar fell to its lowest level in a year as investors fled a safe haven for riskier assets and worried that the U.S. economy could be a laggard in the global recovery.” Fled a safe haven for riskier assets? I don’t know about you but I see a paradox embedded in that lead.

[BigBagel]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

Question: The day after Thanksgiving is a traditionally a pretty light trading day in New York. Does that not make it easier to manipulate the market and establish a floor or will volume increase so much that all bets off ?

What about Citigroup? Don't they have heavy involvement with Dubai? Could they be in trouble yet again?

[Anon21456]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

Question: The day after Thanksgiving is a traditionally a pretty light trading day in New York. Does that not make it easier to manipulate the market and establish a floor or will volume increase so much that all bets off ?

If you're not a day-trader that shouldn't matter to you.
Are you an evil financial capitalist ?

[BigBagel]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

If you're not a day-trader that shouldn't matter to you.
Are you an evil financial capitalist ?

The interest is academic.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

What about Citigroup? Don't they have heavy involvement with Dubai? Could they be in trouble yet again?

zerohedge has an interesting GS piece on HSBCs and Standard Chartered's exposure to doobz.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jus...dubais-default

[WildspitzE]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

this is precisely the event ej predicted to bring the stock market down before the end of 2009...

and here we go...


ripple, ripple, ripple...

My iphone has been going bananas ever since this news hit the msm w/ emails and trigger notices.

As of right now:

Asian mkts are off to a crap start "this morning"

Europe shit the bed "yesterday", and the futures show an equal case of diarrhea for tomorrow.

US futures show a crappy start for tomorrow.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

... where a trading glitch earlier halted trading in many stocks for more than three hours.

Don't you just love the word "GLITCH" and its propensity to happen at the wrong time :rolleyes:

I loved this quote from the UK times online ...

A computer crash at the London Stock Exchange, which by coincidence is 21 per cent owned by the Dubai Government, left dealers unable to trade for three and a half hours.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

I loved this quote from the UK times online ...

[... by coincidence is 21 per cent owned by the Dubai Government]


What the heck is going on here? :eek:

Deep breath: Feel the ICE, Feel the ICE... ;)

[goadam1]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

During the Lehman panic, the Dollar staged a very impressive rally. This time, the Dollar is sliding even when people are trying to de-leverage. I wonder if this marks an interesting turning point in the long term decline of the Dollar.

The flight to safety seems to be the yen. The dollar went up in the last panic because it was a deleverging panic. People needed dollars to settle up margin calls and such. This wave of panic is everyone looking for shelter on planet fiat.

What will hold value? Gold? Oil in the ground? Yen? Beanie babies?

[MulaMan]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

Dubai: $80 billion in debt / 3.2 million people = $35,000 per person

America: $13 trillion in debt / 300 million people = $43,000 per person

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

Dubai: $80 billion in debt / 3.2 million people = $35,000 per person

America: $13 trillion in debt / 300 million people = $43,000 per person

Judas Priest, that US figure is up $8,000 per person in six months ---------Young non working Children with debt should never be tolerated
What have you brought on your Amex? a depreciating house or something equally as Taxing to your income -
Sarcasm really is the lowest form of wit

PS: I am laughing cause I got this one right - now If the AUD follows its usual pattern, sometime in the next 28 days I'm taking a holiday---- for the next 30 years
Aussie Aussie Aussie 89c oui oui oui

[touchring]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

Dubai: $80 billion in debt / 3.2 million people = $35,000 per person

America: $13 trillion in debt / 300 million people = $43,000 per person

I believe that dubai's native population is only about 300k. So if you divide the debt by the native population, it is 350k per person.

[Down Under]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

PS: I am laughing cause I got this one right - now If the AUD follows its usual pattern, sometime in the next 28 days I'm taking a holiday---- for the next 30 years
Aussie Aussie Aussie 89c oui oui oui

You expect the AUD to crash? If so, care to expand.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Dubai default !!!!!!!

You expect the AUD to crash? If so, care to expand.

Not Crash just adjust. Reserve bank won't lift a finger(might even sell in to it) as they would like to see it lower. 23million people do not make a stable strong or desirable currency in a flight to safety. Also to many bullish hoping for parity or more. Also has risen very fast to 92.5c and toppy.
Currently a long straddle position held as of 2 days ago - just need a quick spike.
I am not a regular trader but this was like shooting fish in a barrel with a 105mm Howitzer so i stumped up.
Dubai /Greek bond problem / Vietnam dong devaluation all in 2 days presents a reality check don't you think?. When I hear distant Thunder I expect wind will follow;)