Jobless claims fall under 500,000 - Recession over! (or not)

[c1ue]

The headlines are trumpeting that jobless claims fell under 500,000 for the first time in a long long time.

That's great! Until you look at the actual release:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

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	Advance				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	Nov. 21	Nov. 14	Change	Nov. 7	Year

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Initial Claims (SA)	466,000	501,000	-35,000	505,000	520,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	543,926	475,846	+68,080	531,743	609,138
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	496,500	513,000	-16,500	520,500	512,500

	Advance				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	Nov. 14	Nov. 7	Change	Oct. 31	Year

The good news is it is slightly better than last year this time - though note that this is UI claims, not unemployment per se.

The bad news is that a 4 week moving average of 496,500 vs. 512,500 of 1 year before, or 543746 vs. 475846 of a week before - none of these comparisons are quite as panglossian.

Then we see further down:

				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	Nov. 7	Oct. 31	Change	Year

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Federal Employees	22,941	24,903	-1,962	14,827
Newly Discharged Veterans	34,598	34,899	-301	23,317
Railroad Retirement Board	10,000	10,000	0	3,000
Extended Benefits	539,531	574,155	-34,624	19,650
EUC 20083	3,639,036	3,622,666	+16,370	766,565

EUC numbers still going up. EUC numbers vs. 1 year ago: nearly 3M more though of course EUC benefits weren't as common then.

Then again the Extended Unemployment Benefits bill was passed in June 2008:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-h5749/show