Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

[jmaxey]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

[jpatter666]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Revving up is far different than a top. How long did the .com rev before the top?

Oh absolutely. About 3 years off the top of my head from when a family member asked about the whole Internet thing.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Ha, Nova Scotia is my bank. I has been in and out there quite often for the last half year. None of those tellers have any clue about gold/silver, even the ones responsible to fill my orders were staring at me like I was from Mars. Just today, one of them asked me:"Why do you keep so much cash in the account? It is the RRSP(US 401k equivalent) season, you sir!". Wow, very considerate advices.

Certainly no signs of bubble yet to my own eyes. Any one you see? ;)

Not yet. I have had only 2 people ask me about gold even though many know how I feel. My son is one, and he bought junk silver in 1979 at age 12. I got him to sell stock of a company his wife works for which they had far too much concentration. But he has only bought some CEF now. I have another friend who says he would like to buy some and "we should talk sometime."

[ASH]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

(image of Dr. Strangelove)

Thanks. That put a smile on my face.

Frankly, the recent price action in gold is making me sweat. My allocation is like 80% precious metals, so of course this run-up has looked great in terms of paper gains (which remain unrealized). But my problem is that the run-up has been very rapid, recently, and I worry that however well-justified the long-term story for gold is, all this recent buying may have overshot economic events on the ground. (Maybe I am just wincing, because I don't enjoy seeing all those paper gains evaporate when markets correct.)

The question for me is whether this is mostly "hot" money which will dash right back out again, or if it really is the case that more big players have bought into some form of the scenario that prompts many of us at iTulip to hold gold, and are here to stay for the long haul. A lot of people point to recent well-publicized purchases by foreign central banks as being the impetus, and I can see that -- big purchases by central banks sort of legitimizes the position that there are risks which attach to paper money and dollars in particular. In some way, it makes it more "respectable".

On the other hand, if this is real, and the pace of increase is justified, then that is also kind of scary. For me, a big and rapid success with my allocation will be a Pyrrhic victory, because it's no fun shopping in a smoldering crater.

[lsa420]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Certainly no signs of bubble yet to my own eyes. Any one you see? ;)

What was the Fed funds rate in 1981 when the last gold bubble burst?

We might have a long way to go...

[cjppjc]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Not yet. I have had only 2 people ask me about gold even though many know how I feel. My son is one, and he bought junk silver in 1979 at age 12. I got him to sell stock of a company his wife works for which they had far too much concentration. But he has only bought some CEF now. I have another friend who says he would like to buy some and "we should talk sometime."

After your talk he will buy and gold will drop 10%

I can tell you from personal experience on that one.;)

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...+-+Business%29

Mike

I finally recognize your avatar!!

We will know the gold bull market is over when mega stops making posts like this. (Keep it UP BRO!)

[jiimbergin]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Thanks. That put a smile on my face.

Frankly, the recent price action in gold is making me sweat. My allocation is like 80% precious metals, so of course this run-up has looked great in terms of paper gains (which remain unrealized). But my problem is that the run-up has been very rapid, recently, and I worry that however well-justified the long-term story for gold is, all this recent buying may have overshot economic events on the ground. (Maybe I am just wincing, because I don't enjoy seeing all those paper gains evaporate when markets correct.)

The question for me is whether this is mostly "hot" money which will dash right back out again, or if it really is the case that more big players have bought into some form of the scenario that prompts many of us at iTulip to hold gold, and are here to stay for the long haul. A lot of people point to recent well-publicized purchases by foreign central banks as being the impetus, and I can see that -- big purchases by central banks sort of legitimizes the position that there are risks which attach to paper money and dollars in particular. In some way, it makes it more "respectable".

On the other hand, if this is real, and the pace of increase is justified, then that is also kind of scary. For me, a big and rapid success with my allocation will be a Pyrrhic victory, because it's no fun shopping in a smoldering crater.

Yes, I am also concerned about the rapid rise. I have, until recently, bought physical on any small drop or bought CEF or GTU if the premium had gotten on the low side. During this latest runup I seem to have gotten nervous and have not been buying. I do already have more than the 30% EJ recommends, but really want more. I know it is not a bubble yet, but....

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

For kids who might be wondering, who is this guy? He is Dr. Strangelove, played by Peter Sellers, from the (1964) movie by the same name. He played the real world figure of Dr. Edward Teller, the father of the hydrogen-bomb.

Dr. Teller was another strange figure from UC Berkeley. Teller worked with the U.S. Air Force to build the H-bomb. The H-bomb makes an atomic bomb seem like a firecracker, by comparison. When tested, the H-bomb blew Bikini Atoll in the Pacific off the map.

The H-bomb is set-off (triggered) by an atomic bomb, and when the temperature is high enough, fusion begins inside the H-bomb. The fusion fuses hydrogen into helium and releases massive amounts of energy. Fusion of hydrogen into helium is how the Sun makes its energy, and the H-bomb makes a mini-Sun on Earth. Hence, it is perfect for mass destruction in war.

This was what the Cold War with Russia was all about: a balance of terror between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. And Dr. Teller and his creation, the H-bomb, were reality in the early 1960s. This was back when "duck-and-cover" was a civil defence exercise taught to children in the American public schools. :eek:

[tacito]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Last Sunday my mother (83) told me that she heard on TV that gold would be a good investment. Scary. I think that if gold doesn't correct in a few weeks we could have a mainstream bubble. However, I think that it will correct, that everybody (outside iTulip) will say that gold is dead, and my mother will ask me about my gold because she heard on TV that gold was going down. And that way we could have a good boring bull market for a few more years while everything else freezes.

And since I've just touched a nice inheritance, I hope to buy a nice pack of Philarmonikers under EUR 700. :-)

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

On the other hand, if this is real, and the pace of increase is justified, then that is also kind of scary. For me, a big and rapid success with my allocation will be a Pyrrhic victory, because it's no fun shopping in a smoldering crater.

Relax, live richly, enjoy success, don't rub others' noses in it, educate your fellow man, serve others.

World opinion has come quite a long way in the time since our financial meltdown happened. Opinions of our leaders, the financial system, the monetary system, the "expert" system, and recently the debate about the climate system and peak cheap oil, oh and the mass realization that the MSM is useless.

Every single one of these, a postive development in my book, and what gives me strength and hope.

Just remember it's always darkest before the dawn, I'm not sure what that will bring, but based on the level of increased awareness on the part of the masses, I just happen to think that it will be better, more thoughtful, more reasoned and less dogmatic. More grounded in well, actual reality if you will.

To make progress, we have to first honestly examine what is wrong. That we are making giant leaps in that direction (even with J6P, no less) is a reason for celebration and hope, not dispondency.

You ever see the movie "searching for bobby fischer"?

My favorite quote "Don't move until you see it"- referring to the next chess move.

Just because you correctly saw the next move before most everyone else is not a reason to doubt the validity of the outcome, question, sure, I do it everyday, doubt, not for a second. (Because by vigerously questioning and checking assumptions, conviction grows and doubt receeds). That is natural.

I think you are in the same postition I was a while ago.

"This can't be right"

"Why am I the only one who sees this?"

"Is everyone freaking insane not to see this"

"Am I insane because I'm the only one who sees this"

"I must wrong, it must have finished it's run, because it's too crowded a trade now"

Most of these are obvious fallacies, the last one I think is easier to fall victem too because we forget the circles that our intelectual discourse takes place in. We aren't talking with J6P we are talking with and examining ideas with thoughtful, self-critical thinkers.

If we all simultaneously and in parallel come up with the same answers to questions, that doesn't make it less correct or invalidate the results.

The problem is that our grasp of the issues at hand is going mainstream. That indicates to me that we have officially entered phase II of the gold bull market, past the early adopter stage and into the smart money stage. Remember stage III is the mass acceptance stage where 80% of the entire move in the whole of the bull market takes place in 20% of the entire time frame of the bull.

Did I mention we just only entered phase II?

It's okay to be right, and it's great to question assumptions. But when all the questions have been asked and all the resolution has always been in favor of the course of action you have already initiated, Dude, then your are just worrying yourself without good reason and without positive results for your efforts.

So Ash, Did you miss ANYTHING in your analysis?

Did you get something wrong?

Has the observed behavior of the asset in question followed your predicted results?

Do you keep questioning your assumptions?

Do the conclusions you draw keep pointing you in the same direction?

You can be right, wrong, or right for the wrong reason, but that's about it.

Which do you think you are?

Early adopters often fail to realize the full extent of the possible gains (often even 50% of possible gains) because they keep thinking that things have played out according to their concept and therefore, it must be time to move on to something else.

I'll offer you the standard JT deal, if you would like to sell I ALWAYS am ready to buy at spot with cash in hand.

This may be little comfort but I'll share it anyway...

"I told you so..." - you listened and profited, good for you!

"Buy the deflator" - You did and you maximized your return by concentrating your assets on a winning asset class instead of diluting your purchasing power in the name of diversification for diversification's sake.

You beat the Itulip model portfolio by a significant margin for several years running.



Umm, what were you complaining about again?

RELAX, worry if you must, question if will and check, re-check and re-re-check your assumptions, but when that's all said and done, and the conclusion is the same...

R-E-L-A-X!

Okay?

Trust me, been there, done that, checked, re-checked, triple checked, etc. etc. etc.

Now you know what I do?

I Relax!;)



"

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

[quote=Starving Steve;135032]For kids who might be wondering, who is this guy? He is Dr. Strangelove, played by Peter Sellers, from the (1964) movie by the same name. He played the real world figure of Dr. Edward Teller, the father of the hydrogen-bomb.

Dr. Teller was another strange figure from UC Berkeley. Teller worked with the U.S. Air Force to build the H-bomb. The H-bomb makes an atomic bomb seem like a firecracker, by comparison. When tested, the H-bomb blew Bikini Atoll in the Pacific off the map.

The H-bomb is set-off (triggered) by an atomic bomb, and when the temperature is high enough, fusion begins inside the H-bomb. The fusion fuses hydrogen into helium and releases massive amounts of energy. Fusion of hydrogen into helium is how the Sun makes its energy, and the H-bomb makes a mini-Sun on Earth. Hence, it is perfect for mass destruction in war.

This was what the Cold War with Russia was all about: a balance of terror between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. And Dr. Teller and his creation, the H-bomb, were reality in the early 1960s. This was back when "duck-and-cover" was a civil defence exercise taught to children in the American public schools.

If America no longer has $35 per ounce gold in Ft. Knox to back its dollar empire, it still has its military and its H-bombs, thanks to Dr. Strangelove, played by Peter Sellers (above).

[Quincy K]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNN

These forecasts are utterly meaningless and are made repeatedly by these astrologers.

A fall in the gold price is certainly possible as it is currently overbought. HOWEVER, I heard the same bulls*** last year while what really happened is that stocks got pummelled while gold hit $1000 in March - so the strengthening of the dollar while causing a dip in the gold price, couldn't keep gold down for long and it bounced right back up again, despite the fact that the dollar was rising against everything else.

I don't think a dollar rally will be sufficient to "KILL" gold - the people that are buying gold are not buying it as a "hedge against inflation". That is moronic. Gold is NOT a hedge against inflation. It is a hedge against systemic meltdown and/or currency failures/sovereign defaults. The fear of that will INCREASE rather than decrease if the stock market started tanking. The typical herd reaction at that point will be to pile into the "safe havens", i.e. treasuries, cash (Dollar) AND Gold. Remember that even though the Lehman insolvency was a massive deleveraging event, it cause a massive spike in the gold price over $900 on the Monday after the weekend in which Lehman collapsed.

Anytime I hear someone state that gold is a hedge against inflation I immediately realize how misinformed they are.

Trying to proclaim to know something that they know nothing about.

Once the dollar is revalued and the crisis has passed, gold goes right back down to it's intrinsic value.

That being a big, shiny, gold rock that gets dug out of the ground just to be melted down into a useless brick and buried again, all the while paying people large sums of money to guard, protect and insure it.

[ASH]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

Fusion of hydrogen into helium is how the Sun makes its energy, and the H-bomb makes a mini-Sun on Earth.

Nerdy Footnote: The details of the reaction in the sun are different than the details of the reaction in an H-bomb, but the outcome is similar. In the sun, you start with the common isotope of hydrogen (a single proton in the nucleus), and the proton-proton reaction chain is the main reaction path. In an H-bomb, you start with heavy hydrogen (deuterium -- a proton plus a neutron) and its heavier radioactive cousin tritium (a proton plus two neutrons).

The main branch of the proton-proton reaction chain (what happens about 86% of the time) looks like this:

proton + proton = deuteron (1 proton and 1 neutron) + positron + electron neutrino
deuteron + proton = helium-3 nucleus (2 protons and 1 neutron)
helium-3 + helium-3 = helium-4 nucleus (2 protons and 2 neutrons) + 2 protons

The deuterium-tritium reaction in an H-bomb looks like this:

deuteron + tritium nucleus (1 proton and 2 neutrons) = helium-4 + neutron

The proton-proton process which occurs in the sun is too slow to operate well in an H-bomb. The conditions of high temperature and pressure necessary to sustain fusion in an H-bomb only last long enough for the bomb to blow itself apart, which is why the faster reaction path is necessary.

[FrankL]

Re: Gold GOING to get Killed!!!!

For kids who might be wondering, who is this guy? He is Dr. Strangelove, played by Peter Sellers, from the (1964) movie by the same name. He played the real world figure of Dr. Edward Teller, the father of the hydrogen-bomb.

snip

I think a better case can be made that Dr. Strangelove is inspired more by Werner von Braun than by Edward Teller.