Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

[metalman]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

Yes that's what I was getting at.

that risk is gone. over. new risk, new kind of crash.

[Raz]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

No one else told you as early as I did that John McCain had no chance to win the election in 2008. Everyone else ignored the betting lines, the election results from 2006, the election results during prior recessions and thought the 2008 polling data couldn't be counted on. In the case of the latter, they believed what Faux News was selling.

No one else said that oil would rise to $70 - $80 over the course of the summer of 2009. Everyone else was worried about contango.

No one else said anything about $66 oil on 09/25 being a great short-term window of opportunity.

I may be a loudmouth, but I call them as I see them and occasionally get them right.

I never thought of you as a loudmouth.
Nothing wrong with being opinionated - as long as you're right.

[goadam1]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

itulip fred also said : http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...2&postcount=29

YES itulip BUY and HOLD is great, if you entered under $750..

And any swing from current levels is just a hick up along the way.

New entries and adding to positions, just a little tricky.

All I say is that GOLD is ripe for a major pull back, due to the pure fact the inflation trian has yet to leave the station. Where is the inflation???

Gold inverse dollar trade is the current play.

Where? It's a ghost in the machine. Oh here is some:

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) plans to raise shipping rates an average of 4.9% for packages shipping by ground and air and packages sent to other countries from the U.S.

The world's largest package shipper said the increase for air express and international shipments is based on a 6.9% rise in the base rate and a 2% reduction in the air and international fuel surcharge.

The new rates take effect Jan. 4, when fuel surcharge tables for air express and ground services also will be adjusted. The changes will more closely align air and ground fuel surcharges and substantially reduce the volatility of air surcharges when fuel prices fluctuate

[goadam1]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

that risk is gone. over. new risk, new kind of crash.

I doubt we see that kind of deleveraging again in our lives. Although, never say never.

But I think we all missed a great time to buy some stuff

[icm63]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I doubt we see that kind of deleveraging again in our lives

If goadam1 is 98 years old, yes then this is a good chance of this call becoming correct...

The BOOM and BUST cycles are getting shorter and shorter...:p

[Jay]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I doubt we see that kind of deleveraging again in our lives. Although, never say never.

But I think we all missed a great time to buy some stuff

I would say now is still a great time to buy stuff. Does anyone here not doubt that gold will at least double? When can you feel so assured of an investment? That to me is a GREAT time to buy. Short the house, make money.

[Jay]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I doubt we see that kind of deleveraging again in our lives. Although, never say never.

But I think we all missed a great time to buy some stuff

I would say now is still a great time to buy stuff. Does anyone here not doubt that gold will at least double in almost any imaginable scenario? When can you feel so assured of an investment? That to me is a GREAT time to buy. Short the house, make money.

[skyson]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

even the genius trader who traded perfectly only once per yr since 2001... net transaction costs... lost to buy & hold gold since 2001.

you conveniently ignore the issue of asset allocation. with a 15(gold)/85(treasuries) composition, what a tripling of gold makes the gain of the whole portfolio? 7-8% annually?

your cheer leading sometimes becomes tiring.

[grapejelly]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

you conveniently ignore the issue of asset allocation. with a 15(gold)/85(treasuries) composition, what a tripling of gold makes the gain of the whole portfolio? 7-8% annually?

your cheer leading sometimes becomes tiring.

I would be much higher on the gold side. What's 70% in gold gonna do for you if gold doubles or triples?

But it won't triple.

Instead, gold will go up 10X or 50X from today's prices over the next years, because fiat currencies are sinking.

The monetary base has exploded and the money is sitting in banks but it will make its way first into financial assets in the FIRE economy, then hit commodities, then hit wages. It's inevitable because governments are the biggest debtors on earth and they ALWAYS default, ALWAYS ALWAYS.

Never in history has a government had a fiat currency that has not defaulted. Even the US greenback experiment during the War of Northern Aggression resulted in a 55% depreciation in a few years, which in my book is a default.

As this happens now, there will be a flight into tangibles that will make the late 1970s look like a cakewalk. It is highly unfortunate but ultimately all savers will be robbed of their purchasing power pretty much entirely. There will be a scramble for assets, Mises "crack up boom" and this will drive gold to those unheard of heights.

We are starting to see this today with the smart money, very quietly.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

you conveniently ignore the issue of asset allocation. with a 15(gold)/85(treasuries) composition, what a tripling of gold makes the gain of the whole portfolio? 7-8% annually?

your cheer leading sometimes becomes tiring.

You obviously missed EJ's recommendation early this year to go to 30% gold, and a number of us are more than that. I have about 35% PM.

[grapejelly]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

should add: the pattern is for banks to use these huge reserves to of course buy government debt. The government spends this money in the "real" economy, so how can it not be inflationary?

[metalman]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

you conveniently ignore the issue of asset allocation. with a 15(gold)/85(treasuries) composition, what a tripling of gold makes the gain of the whole portfolio? 7-8% annually?

your cheer leading sometimes becomes tiring.

your studied effort to ignore the facts presented here... easily verified with a simple google search... smells trollish.

[Raz]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

...Never in history has a government had a fiat currency that has not defaulted. Even the US greenback experiment during the War of Northern Aggression resulted in a 55% depreciation in a few years, which in my book is a default. ...

Aha! You just revealed the location of Nirvana - it's in Dixie!

Only a true son of the beluv-ed South would recunize thuh Civil Wawah for whut it truly wuz.

(And by the way, I agree with everything you just wrote about Fiat Currencies - and your conclusions as well.);)

[touchring]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I agree with that. I'm only saying that it's my opinion that metals will trend down if the stock market trends down - and - I think the stock market will trend down. It is, in my opinion, a good time to lighten up on metals.

question is when is ej's sp500.

[touchring]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I agree with that. I'm only saying that it's my opinion that metals will trend down if the stock market trends down - and - I think the stock market will trend down. It is, in my opinion, a good time to lighten up on metals.

question is when.